Mfibiss

12/06/2023

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Markets Back Aussie Dollar Ahead of US CPI & Fed

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The Australian dollar has started the week where it left off with the pro-growth currency in the green in early trade on Monday morning. AUD/USD is roughly 0.16% higher for the day already, on the back of a marginally weaker US dollar while markets have extended the theme of a Fed interest rate pause on Wednesday. That being said, US CPI tomorrow could really disrupt the current status quo should inflation readings come in higher than expected. This may not change the rate pause but could keep the door open for yet another rate hike down the line. These two economic releases are driving the AUD/USD currency pair today in relation to the declining differential between US and Australian rates after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly hiked last week.

At present money markets are pricing in a 73% chance of a rate pause with little signs of worry from tomorrow’s CPI print. While no heavy hitting data is scheduled for today, the rest of the week is stacked with high impact events. From an Australian perspective, consumer confidence which has fallen sharply and labor data will be in focus.

Trade with caution: AUD/USD.

07/06/2023

Turkish Lira Fell 7% This Morning as Potential Policy Shift Gains Momentum, USD/TRY Above 23.0000

Looking at the bigger picture, volatility is expected to remain high over the coming days. USDTRY continues to tick higher with little in the way of price action to analyze as the moves have been so abrupt and volatile.

The selloff in the Lira today is likely being seen as early signs of a potential policy pivot with a lack of intervention boding well for Turkey and the Lira in the medium and longer term. Analysts are looking toward the 25.0000-28.000 range as a target (sustainable level) for USDTRY which is realistic, however we may see some firm of pullback before that. The 14-day RSI on both the daily and weekly timeframe are extremely overbought and might be worth monitoring given the lack of price action.

01/06/2023

How do you leverage social media analytics to improve your marketing performance?

Social media remains one of the most influential sources of information for the majority of people worldwide.

Below key points will help you to understand "How to leverage social media analytics to improve marketing performance"

1. Get to know your audience better

As a marketer, you probably want to tailor the perfect marketing messaging that will make your audience believe you can read their minds and truly understand their needs. Also, as a marketer, you should know that the process of learning about your consumers is never-ending. At the early stage, brands must ensure that their hypotheses about “the buyer persona” were correct and that the people they are targeting truly need the product or service.

2. Discover your strengths and weaknesses

The first and most basic yet significant metric is sentiment. Using machine learning technology, social media analytics tools are getting better at understanding the context of a sentence and automatically assigning sentiment to each post, which can be positive, negative, or neutral. This allows brands to monitor shifts in audience attitudes and respond quickly.

3. Compare your brand with your competitors

Aside from monitoring their own performance, marketers are always looking for ways to learn about their competitors’ metrics, and social media listening is an excellent tool for gathering this data. Of course, you won’t get “secret” information, but understanding how your brand compares will help you create your strategy and adapt to significant shifts in your competitors’ methods.

Modern social media analytics tools will allow you to create multiple topics at once. Some may feature your products or brands, while others may collect information on your competitors. That is, you may examine their demographics, most popular sources, analyze aspects, uncover the authors of the most influential mentions, and much more.

4. Find new ideas for your marketing with visual listening

Now let’s examine visual listening in detail. First of all, only a few social media analytics tools can track both text and visual mentions, where the brand’s name was not even mentioned in the caption but appeared on the image. How can it do that, you may ask? The star of this feature is logo recognition, which can recognize logos even when they are rotated, small, or not fully visible.

But, you may wonder, what value do visual mentions bring? “Great value,” we’d say! Let’s start with the numbers. The amount of photographs shared on social media has skyrocketed in recent years. For instance, according to research, every second, 1,074 photos are uploaded to Instagram alone.

Meanwhile, social media images are the most authentic, representing our daily lives or the world around us. Consciously or not, we frequently include brand names in our pictures. Let’s say you ordered crispy and spicy wings from KFC and posted them on Twitter without a tag. Your friends and followers may not realize it, but after seeing this post in their feed, they may feel the need to grab a bucket as well.

5. Track the results of marketing campaigns

Last but not least, tracking and analyzing your marketing or communication campaigns is another way to leverage social media analytics. When conducting many PR or marketing campaigns at the same time, it can be difficult to track their effectiveness. Make sure the tool that you use gives you the ability to create custom dashboards, which are fully customized boards that can be filled with interactive widgets.

19/05/2023

US Dollar Eyeing Best 2-Week Performance Since September, Eyes on Resistance

US Dollar Back in the Spotlight as Treasury Yields Rise

The US Dollar roared higher on Thursday, extending a recent winning streak. Over the past 2 weeks, the DXY Dollar Index is up about 2.2%. That is the best 10-day performance since September 2022. Let us take a closer look at the past 24 hours and what to expect into the end of the week.

Unsurprisingly, the 2-year Treasury yield has rallied over 8.5% over the past 2 weeks, marking the best performance over such a period since September 2022 as well. Rising near-term bond yields can be seen as a sign of rising confidence in the US economy.

During Thursday’s Wall Street session, reports crossed the wires that Congressmen on Capitol Hill are creating plans to vote in the short term on a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling, opening the door to averting a default.

Meanwhile, timely data on the labor market showed signs of improvement. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 242k last week. Economists were eyeing a 251k increase. Still, both numbers are below the previous +264k print.

As a result, financial markets continued pricing out near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amidst a still-tight labor market and sticky underlying inflation. Since last Wednesday, almost 2 rate cuts were taken off the outlook in one-years’ time.

This is likely why the US Dollar rallied. Heading into the remaining 24 hours, all eyes turn to a speech from Chair Jerome Powell and former Chair Bernanke during a policy panel. If the former continues cooling near-term Fed rate cut bets, USD could add momentum to its impressive rally.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, DXY has broken above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). That has exposed the March high of 105.88. Given upside confirmation, this could open the door to extending higher in the near term. Key support is the 100.82 – 101.79 range below.

16/05/2023

To What Extent Euro Could Fall? EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY Price Setups

Overbought conditions, stretched positioning, and growing doubts about whether the US Federal Reserve will pause at its next meeting have triggered a pause in the euro’s rally. While the outlook differs across crosses, the retreat doesn't suggest EUR/USD's uptrend is over.

The pace of EUR/USD gains in recent months has been quite sharp – the six-month change is the highest at least since 2017. While the surge in momentum bodes well for the medium-term outlook, in the near-term chances are that the gains could slow or even reverse a bit, given the mean-reverting nature of the series the drop in the pair could be a sign that this is already happening.

For investment advisory and how to start your investment, send a message to any of our social media channels.

11/05/2023

At Mfibiss, we engage your money to work for you.

07/04/2023

Australian Dollar Drops as Currency Markets Await US NFPs, Will AUD/USD Keep Going?

Asia-Pacific Market Briefing – US Economy Showing Early Cracks Ahead of NFP Data
The Australian Dollar underperformed against its major counterparts on Thursday. The sentiment-linked currency received a boost following the latest round of US initial jobless claims, which surprised higher at 228k compared to the 200k median estimate. However, that outcome turned out to be a decline from the previous period, which was revised higher to 246k.

Meanwhile, a separate report showed that US-based employers reported 89.7k job cuts in March. That was a 15% increase compared to February. The initial reaction to these prints saw US equities weaken and the haven-linked US Dollar strengthens. Combined, this pushed AUD/USD lower. Still, by the end of the Wall Street session, equities reversed losses and finished in the green.

Traders might be looking to a solid non-farm payrolls report for March, which is due later today at 12:30 GMT. However, US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, lowering liquidity and increasing volatility risk to an unexpected outcome. The US economy is seen adding 230k non-farm payrolls as the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.6%.

However, some early cracks are appearing in the economy. The Citi Economic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest since late February. This is a sign that lately, economic outcomes have been coming in softer than estimated. Meanwhile, a custom momentum indicator I made is at its lowest since the immediate aftermath of the 2020 global pandemic – see the chart below.

With numerous trading exchanges offline until next week, the focus will shift to the currency market reaction to the US jobs report. With fears of a recession growing after US banking system woes, a softer NFP print could induce risk aversion. Traders have lately been focusing on what a dovish Fed could mean for markets, this could quickly switch to panic if economic data starts to quickly turn south. That may bode ill for AUD/USD.

Is the US Economy Slowing?

31/03/2023

UK Growth Revised Higher, GBP/USD Nears A Multi-Week High

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2022, and data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed delayed, one-tenth of a percentage above expectations. The Q3 data was also revised higher by the same amount to -0.1%.

According to the ONS,

The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 4 2022 is now 0.6% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 2019), revised up from the previous estimate of 0.8% below. GDP is now estimated to have increased by 4.1% in 2022, revised up from the previous estimate of 4.0%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP increased by 0.6%.’

UK GDP Quarterly National Accounts – October to December 2022

Cable (GBP/USD) pushed marginally higher on the ONS release and back above 1.2400 for the first time in a month. Sterling has been slightly better bid ove-r the last few weeks against the US dollar. The greenback remains under pressure from ongoing market expectations that the Fed may finally have finished their aggressive rate hiking cycle with expectations also building that the US central bank may start cutting rates at the end of Q3/start of Q4. This afternoon (13:30 UK) we get the latest look at US price pressures with the release of the closely monitored US core PCE data. If inflation is the US remains stubbornly high and sticky, these rate-cut expectations will disappear, boosting the value of the US dollar.

Looking at the daily GBP/USD chart, while the pair may start to look expensive, using the CCI indicator, the rest of the set-up remains positive. Cable trades above all three moving averages, which are now in a positive order, while recent resistance turned support around the 1.2292 level continues to hold. The recent double top around 1.2448 is looking vulnerable to any move higher and a confirmed break above this level would leave 1.2667 as the next point of resistance.

29/03/2023

https://youtu.be/XNh-LziYLHA
trading

US Dollar Struggles to Gain Ground as Treasury Yields Leap.

28/03/2023

US Dollar Struggles to Gain Ground as Treasury Yields Leap. Where to for USD?

(Brief Talking Points: US Dollar, DXY Index, USD, SVB, ASX 200, RBA, Fed, FOMC, Crude Oil)



The US Dollar sunk further today, adding to losses seen into the New York close on Monday.

The general reversal in fortunes for risk assets continued through the Asian session on Tuesday with Australia’s ASX 200 adding over 1%. Retail sales data there printed in line with expectations at 0.2% month-on-month for February.

The fairly benign number underscored perceptions of the RBA pausing in its rate hike cycle on Tuesday next week.

Other APAC equity markets have been mostly positive, with mainland Chinese indices the only ones in the red.

The rescue of SVB Financial announced yesterday appears to have calmed market concerns of the banking crisis enlarging.

This perspective saw further oscillation in the pricing on what the Fed will do at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in early May. The interest rate market is now pricing in a roughly 50/50 bet for a 25 basis point (bp) hike then.

Treasury yields leapt higher across the curve yesterday but has given up a few bp today, with the exception of the 1-year bond. It has jumped 60 bp from the low seen 2-weeks ago to be back above 4.60%.

Crude oil has consolidated yesterday’s outsized gains with the WTI futures contract near USD 73 bbl while the Brent contract is a touch under USD 78 bbl. Natural gas failed to be swept up in oil’s rally as it continues to languish.

Gold has made a slight recovery from yesterday’s selloff, trading above USD 1,950.

The Japanese Yen has been today’s outperformer in currency land with USD/JPY edging toward 130.50. All other G-10 currencies are firmer to some degree against the greenback.

There will be a number of speakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) today.

27/03/2023

Japanese Yen Price Action Setup: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY

The Japanese yen looks set to retest its January high against the US dollar amid worries regarding the stability of the European financial sector and hopes that the US Fed is closer to a peak in rates.

Markets are pricing in around an 80% chance that US rates have already peaked, while the first Fed rate cut is priced in for July after the central bank on Wednesday shifted to a more cautious stance on rates to account for the stress in the banking sector. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that authorities are monitoring “very, very closely” to see if the banking sector stress turns into a broader credit crunch, pushing the economy into recession.

24/03/2023

Can Unlucky Traders Still be Profitable? Finding Optimal Risk Management.

Not Quite Being Lucky

Often, there is an element of luck when it comes to trading. Even if your analysis is spot on, the timing is very difficult. A famous example from the real world can be found in Michael Burry, the storied US investor who correctly predicted the 2008 housing bubble from Michael Lewis’ bestseller “The Big Short”. He had to face down a revolt among his investors that nearly chased him out of the very trades that would land him in the history books. Burry’s financial backers balked at a steady stream of expensive payments made to keep his trades in play as the markets dithered.

There is a way for traders to compensate for luck – risk management. Overlooking this essential component of the strategy is how an incredibly lucky trader – someone who can frequently call trades correctly – may still lose money in the aggregate. Conversely, using risk management effectively is how a poor win rate can still translate into profitability.

How is it that a lucky trader can lose money overall? Consider a person who profited on 8 trades out of 10, making 10 dollars per trade. On the two remaining trades, however, 50 dollars were lost each time. On net, this will leave the trader 20 dollars poorer. In this special report, we will show how an unlucky trader can still be profitable, and what you can do to optimize risk management.

Study Limitations

It should be noted that this is a study computed with code and has no margin of error or human emotion factored into it. This means that no matter what, it assumes the trader being modeled always sticks to the game plan perfectly. It also assumes that trades can be seamlessly closed – with a profit or loss – at the designated settings with absolute precision. In the real world, stops may not always be executed at the specified price, resulting in some slippage. These simulations also assume 100 trades were taken, which will not match everyone’s level of activity. With that in mind, this is more of a demonstration of the importance of risk management rather than a one-size-fits-all trading system.