Pivot Point Trading

13/07/2021

GBPUSD: Capped above 1.3900 again as EURGBP once again held 0.8530 and GBPJPY retreating but dip demand still present into 1.3850. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Another hold of the strong 0.8530-35 support area and helping to cap GBPUSD but rally sellers poised still as we rally to 0.8550. GBPJPY: Good two-way business amid the variable risk tones time time capping into 153.50 but good demand at 152.80

EURUSD: Another good hold of 1.1830 but still failing into 1.1880 as we continue to range tightly.USDJPY: Finally broke up through the pivotal 110.20-30 area after holding 110.00 as I highlighted yesterday but capping into 110.50 and some more re-sells duly placed part hedge for GBPUSD shorts too. EURJPY: 130.50 now a decent support line but rally sellers prevailing at 131.00-10.USDCHF: Decent support line at 0.9140 now with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: That decent support line still at 1.0830 with SNB shadow/help ever present but rally sellers also poised still.

AUDUSD: Another retreat from 0.7500 where we have very large option interest on 15th but 0.7470 holding this time. Expect that option interest to contain range unless something kicks off elsewhere as a core driver. AUDJPY moves having an impact too of course.USDCAD: Strong support area still at 1.2450 amid firmer USD and CADJPY selling but 1.2500 now presenting a good cap now where we also have large options again lurking this week

12/07/2021

GBPUSD: 1.3820 resistance broken in Friday's rally, then 1.3850-60 amid the GBPJPY demand and triggering stops along the way but finally capped above 1.3900 in Asia as EURGBP held 0.8530 and GBPJPY began retreating. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: A decent retreat on Friday amid the GBP demand but another hold of the strong 0.8530-35 support area but rally sellers poised still as we rally to 0.8565. GBPJPY: Good two-way business amid the variable risk tones.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1830 this time before a rally to 1.1880 and still ranging in that mix as I type. USDJPY: Another good cap at the pivotal 110.20-30 area but holding 110.00 as I type as some USD demand appears.
EURJPY: 130.60 now a decent support line but rally sellers poised still.USDCHF: CHF pairs lively amid the varible risk tones and the SNB ever vigilant. Decent support line at 0.9130 as I type but good two-way business expected still.EURCHF: That support line forming still at 1.0830 which I highlighted on Friday here with SNB shadow/help ever present but rally sellers also poised still.

AUDUSD: A retreat from 0.7500 and re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy but 0.7450 holding this time and pips duly banked. AUDJPY moves definitely having an impact.USDCAD: Strong support area now at 1.2450 amid softer oil price, firmer USD and CADJPY selling but 1.2520-25 presenting a good cap now where we also have options in play today as I warned on Friday.

21/05/2020

If you want some tips on how to cope then please listen..

05/05/2020

03/04/2020

Friday 3 April 2020

USD Dollar demand notable again

We're seeing a few range boundaries creaking under some renwed USD demand in Asia and this morning as Europe gets underway along with soft PMI data pushing the Euro even lower. UK Services PMI just out also keeping pressure on the Pound.

Yesterday's highlight, and some, was a Trump tweet that suggested an agreement between Saudi Arabia/OPEC and Russia to cut oil production by 10-15m barrels. Aimed at nipping some reported cheap oil reserve buying by China in the bud ? Certainly a strange one that had algos cranking oil and commodity currencies sharply higher before a reality check retreat. Oil still posted its largest one-day gains since 1991 and there are reports that there will be discussions on Monday that are helping to maintain a bid tone this morning but it promises to be a wild ride still.

Today sees the release of the latest US NFP and wages report that comes on top of yesterday's huge 6.65mln weekly jobless claims. Global USD demand and US Fed still pumping up the volume though largely shrugging off the negatives for the moment at least. Crazy days indeed.

GBPUSD had another look at 1.2475 before retreating once again to break that 1.2350 line to test 1.2300. EURGBP has fallen further to 0.8737 (GBPEUR up to 1.1444) and that EURGBP softness has helped provide some support for GBPUSD again too on the way down but reversing as I type.GBPJPY found support at 132.60 but since capped around 134.00 amid some risk-off but underpinned for the moment by USDJPY rebounding from another test of 107.00 to post 108.23.

I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand so patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.

USDJPY has found some decent dip demand again helped by that oil spike yesterday and now tested offers /res at 108.30 while EURJPY has dropped further on the general EUR supply and now posted new recent lows of 116.36 before bouncing but sellers still poised.EURUSD continues its journey lower and now tested 1.0780 support after that soggy PMI data earlier.USDCHF has based at 0.9660 and since rallied to 0.9773 as I type as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand still at 1.0540 with the SNB still in the frame.

AUDUSD had another spike yesterday but this time on that oil news which gave a general lift to all commodity currencies but we've retreated again to now post 0.6014 as I type. USDCAD tumbled to test 1.4080 again on the oil price reaction but since traded quite tightly as the questions on that 10-15m barrel cut continue.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

17/10/2019

R2 bounce

10/10/2019

Thursday 10 October 2019

Roller coaster risk ride as US-China trade talks play out

Brexit aside, the US-China trade talks were always going to cast a big shadow this week and as they get underway we've already had negative and positive reports of progress and the algos have duly feasted, albeit in tight ranges still. Risk sentiment has enjoyed a roller coaster ride therefore and the jury remains out still as I type. US CPI at 12.30 GMT among a plethora of global data out today too.

Meanwhile the Brexit debacle continues with the algos equally well fed. Today Varadkhar meets Johnson amid the varying degree of noise from both sides and we can expect more headlines but little by way of real change.

GBPUSD found support around recent lows at 1.2200 again on the initial negative reports from US-China trade talks having spiked sharply to 1.2291 in the morning on more Brexit bs. Still being pulled around by GBPJPY risk-on/risk-off but failing to get back over offers at 1.2250 atm. EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and now helped by EURUSD breaking up through 1.1000 and we've now been up to 0.9010 (GBPEUR down to 1.1098). GBPJPY has seen good two-way business again with another failure at 131.80 resulting in another retreat to test 130.80-85.

EURUSD has finally broken 1.1000 helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand and we've been up to post 1.1019 so far.
USDJPY has enjoyed lots of two-way business between 107.00 and 107.80 amid all the variable risk plays.USDCHF continues to find dip demand at 0.9900 but has retreated from 0.9964 as EURUSD breaks higher and EURCHF trades tightly and risk sentiment remains variable.

AUDUSD held 0.6700 on a further fall helped by some AUDJPY supply initially but then we saw both pairs rally on the better risk sentiment and has posted highs of 0.6757. USDCAD continues to trade 1.3300-50 with CADJPY in play both sides.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

09/10/2019

Wednesday 9 October 2019

Consolidation time again as jury remains out on risk

We've seen the Pound find some dip support again this morning as Brexit talks continue after a decent drop yesterday and the Chinese trade delegation arriving in numbers has also led to some risk-on reaction. Issues ongoing in Turkey/Syria and elsewhere though so all in the mix still and the jury remains well and truly out as we continue to trade in tight ranges.

GBPUSD duly found support around recent lows at 1.2200 helped by some GBPJPY risk-on demand and currently breaking up through 1.2250 eeee 1.2280 in a rush as I type helped by a Times report that the EU is allegedly prepared to make some backstop concessions in a final bid to reach a deal.EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and we've now been up to 0.8987 (GBPEUR down to 1.1127) before this morning's GBP rebound. GBPJPY has seen good two-way business again with a failure at 131.80 resulting in another retreat helped by a softer Pound/risk combo yesterday and breaking down to post 130.45 before also rebounding this morning.

I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate.

EURUSD failed to break 1.1000 yet again and that continues to be a decent line in the sand and the pair retreated again to test 1.0950 this time before rebounding to 1.0990 as I type.USDJPY yesterday fell further on the softer risk tones and we broke down through 107.00 to test the next layer of bids at 106.80 before rebounding to look at 107.30 where we've now capped three times.USDCHF duly found some dip demand at 0.9900 again and EURCHF too at 1.0860 but rally sellers will remain poised as EURUSD tests 1.1000 and softer risk sentiment overall.

AUDUSD remains on the back foot and has posted fresh recent lows of 0.6723 helped by some AUDJPY supply yesterday before reversing but unable to get back above 0.6750 as I type. USDCAD has held around 1.3300 but still unable to break above 1.3350.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

22/07/2019

Monday 22 July 2019

Fragile risk still prevailing

We're still seeing fragile risk sentiment helping to cap core pairs across the board as a new week begins as I've been warning/advising for a long time now.

GBPUSD failed between 1.2520-30 again and remains on the back foot this morning at 1.2475 amid the Tory leadership outcome tomorrow and subsequent Brexit/political debacle.EURGBP retreat found support into those 0.8955 bids I highlighted but equally can't get back through 0.9000.GBPJPY remains soft still helped by USDJPY finding rally sellers again and fragile risk prevailing.

I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout.

EURUSD has found expected dip support again around 1.1200 but similarly still finding rally sellers too as we continue to range tightly amid much cross-currency play. USDJPY had a look above 108.00 earlier but fell again on the fragile risk abut finding bids into 107.60 again where we initially held last week.USDCHF has also failed at 0.9850 but seen dip demand into 0.9800 again still capped by EURCHF supply but with the SNB always going to be vigilant as we continue to look soggy and CHF demand prevails.

AUDUSD remains underpinned around 0.7030 but equally rallies also being sold while USDCAD remains tightly bound but on the back foot still.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

17/06/2019

Monday 17 June 2019

US data casts doubts on Fed rate cut

Strong revisions to the US Retail Sales on Friday eventually saw a decent rally in the US Dollar as hopes of an imminent interest rate hike this week faded but the jury still remains out. The FOMC make their latest announcement this Wednesday so we haven't got long to wait but it should be a lively week ahead regardless. Th uncertainty means we have on-going risk-off sentiment prevailing.

GBPUSD has fallen back to post lows of 1.2573 helped by some GBPJPY supply and the on-going political risk as the Tory Party leadership contest continues. EURGBP continues to see good two-way business but tightly bound with EURUSD also falling in rapid fashion. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing still as risk-off sentiment continues but support at 136.30 holding the falls so far.

I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always as ranges remain tight.

EURUSD has finally cleared out some of the dip demand as bulls turned and ran for cover after the US data and ECB noises on inflation and we've tested good support at 1.1200. USDJPY held 108.00 on Friday with the dip demand I mentioned and was happy to stage a decent rally only to fail at 108.70 helped by renewed Yen demand. USDCHF also staged a decent rally as EURUSD retreated but still tightly bound overall as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand.

AUDUSD is still finding sellers on the bleaker domestic outlook and rate cut scenarios along with some good AUDJPY risk-off supply.USDCAD staged a decent rally again on the general USD demand and as the oil price rally faded combined with some good CADJPY selling again.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

23/04/2019

Tuesday 23 April 2019

Jury still out as markets re-open

Ranges were tight going into the Easter break and so far we're seeing little of note as traders return.

GBPUSD has looked at 1.2975-80 again which has held once more but similarly failed to break back above 1.3000. Cross party Brexit talks resume now but with little evidence of any progress to be made and with May still fighting her own party too the jury is still out as to which way the cards will fall.EURGBP has also been tightly bound but remains underpinned with month-end Euro demand on the horizon again.

I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid the Brexit debacles. Plenty more to come in the weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines. No change to this paragraph any time soon.

EURUSD held the 1.1225 support but similarly can't get back above 1.1280 while USDJPY still looks underpinned into 111.65 which has held again but rally sellers equally poised around 112.00 as we've been seeing yet again. USDCHF remains underpinned as EURCHF continues to find dip support with the SNB ever-watchful and now posting highs not seen since November.

AUDUSD has duly retreated to test 0.7100 despite some more US-China trade talk optimism as markets still look for an RBA rate cut at some point.USDCAD has failed around 1.3380 but finding support into 1.3330.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

19/04/2019

Friday 19 April 2019

Steady as she goes again into the Easter week-end

It's all been quiet out there by and large as most markets prepare to shut down for the Easter break. Order boards are sketchy understandably and thin liquidity will mean some will hold better than others.

GBPUSD has now fallen through 1.3000 to post lows of 1.2979 despite better UK retail sales data yesterday (another nice rally-sell opportunity) but held up so far by 1.2980 bids.EURGBP has also been tightly bound.

I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid the Brexit delays. Plenty more to come now in the weeks ahead and the algos will continue to feed off the headlines. No change to this paragraph any time soon.

EURUSD has fallen to test the 1.1225 support but also holding for the moment while USDJPY looks underpinned into 111.65 still but rally sellers equally poised around 112.00 as we've been seeing again.

USDCHF remains underpinned helped by the EURUSD retreat and EURCHF continues to find dip support. with the SNB ever-watchful. AUDUSD remains tightly bound while USDCAD has failed around 1.3400 again but finding support into 1.3360.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.