03/03/2026
Quick rate post ….
With the fighting in the Middle East, the oil blockage, the disruption to international travel, we have seen swap rates increases so far this week. This will normally lead to mortgage rates increasing in the short term.
The likelihood of a Base Rate reduction in March has gone from 85% likely at the end of last week to less than 20% likely today.
The outlook for more than one base rate reduction this year has also dropped.
I’ve been talking a lot with my clients about unexpected & unprecedented events and this is one of them!
I think it’s likely that short term, so this week we might not see rates move much.
As we move through the month and lenders current funds are allocated, we may see rate increases, I personally don’t think they will be drastic, but I wouldn’t want clients waiting too long to apply.
I’d also keep an eye out for short notice rate reductions, I always talk that rates can change quickly but this is more likely at the moment.
As always things like this are volatile and can change quickly, so all we can do is try and protect our clients from rate increases.
I’m hoping we will just see a little bit of an upward movement but nothing too significant, but clients waiting for rates to drop further, I think it’s unlikely at the moment.
But this is all just my opinion, and could be wrong but wanted to comment to you all on my current thoughts 🏡💛
