01/06/2026
📣Nellie's Monday Update📣
There are some good signs of improving stability in the market as we head towards the June MPC interest rate decision.
First-time buyer market – momentum building
There are clear signs of renewed momentum in the first-time buyer (FTB) segment:
• Buyers are increasingly targeting higher-value homes, despite wider uncertainty
• Lenders are responding with:
o Higher LTV products
o Increased income multiples
o More flexible criteria
Recent product developments highlight this shift:
• Across the market, lenders are also re-expanding lending at the top end of affordability. Notably, Nat West recently increased their Loan-to-Income multiple to 6.5 x income for those earning over £150k pa.
What this means for introducers:
• More buyers are now able to proceed where affordability was previously a barrier
• New build stock is particularly well positioned to benefit from this change
Market backdrop – cautious but improving
Activity across the housing market continues to show mixed signals, but the overall picture remains one of gradual recovery rather than slowdown.
• HMRC data shows a 53% year-on-year increase in completions during April, highlighting strong pipeline activity coming through.
• However, transaction levels dipped month-on-month, reflecting the usual distortion caused by earlier Stamp Duty-driven activity and timing of completions.
• It’s also worth remembering that transaction stats reflect deals agreed several months earlier, so don’t always indicate current demand.
What this means for us all:
The market is active but uneven – pipeline strength is there, but short-term volatility in reporting should be expected.
Mortgage rates – signs of stabilisation
Encouragingly, we are continuing to see early signs of easing in mortgage pricing:
• A number of lenders have reduced rates in recent weeks.
• Moneyfacts data shows average fixed rates edging lower as lenders compete for business, particularly in higher LTV segments.
• Product numbers are improving, reflecting increased lender confidence and appetite.
What this means for buyers and sellers:
• Improved pricing is supporting affordability at the margins.
• More choice at higher LTV levels is helping unlock first-time buyer demand.
Looking ahead – MPC meeting (18 June)
The next Bank of England MPC decision on 18 June is a key watchpoint.
Current expectations
• The base rate is currently 3.75% and expected to be held in June by many commentators.
• Markets are relatively divided on the direction over the rest of the year.
• Pricing suggests only a low probability of an immediate change at the June meeting.
Key factors influencing the decision
• Inflation outlook, particularly energy prices and global events
• Economic stability and political backdrop
• Labour market resilience and consumer spending
There is increasing commentary that inflation risks may still push rates higher later in the year, even if June remains stable.
Impact on mortgage rates
• Mortgage rates are already influenced by future expectations (swap rates), not just base rate movements
• Even without a rate change in June:
o Rates could continue to drift slightly down if inflation expectations calm
o Or plateau / increase again if markets price in future rate rises
• It is still more likely we see stability than a sharp downward cycle in the immediate to near future.
Thanks, as always for your support, I hope you have a fantastic week ahead, and let us know if you have any questions or need any further information on any of the above.
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