ASDeFi, Cardinal House, 20 Street Marys Parsonage, Manchester (2026)

The platform is licensed by UK regulatory authorities.

20/09/2026

Bitcoin Holds Above $81,000 in September — Breaking Its Worst Month Reputation While Institutions Quietly Take Over

The Month That Was Supposed to Hurt Bitcoin

Every year, as August ends and September begins, the same conversation plays out across crypto Twitter, trading desks, and financial media: brace for the worst month of the year.

The historical data has always seemed to support the warning. Bitcoin has historically closed September in the red more often than any other month. The fear is not irrational — it has real statistical backing across multiple market cycles.

And yet, as of September 20, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $81,260 — up 0.46% on the day — with a Fear and Greed Index sitting at 71 (Greed), up from 56 just days ago. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

None of it materially moved Bitcoin lower.

Something is changing — and the data behind September 2026 tells a story that every serious Bitcoin investor should understand.

Part 1: The September Pattern Is Breaking Down

Let us start with the data that surprised even veteran market participants.

Bitcoin's August 2026 ETF inflows came in at $3.5 billion — a single month that outweighed everything before it. Across January through July, the same funds lost a net $5.30 billion. August did not just beat the year — it reversed it entirely.

The problem is what months like this have historically preceded. Twelve months since these funds launched have drawn $3 billion or more. Bitcoin fell in the month straight after seven of them. The average return in those following months is 0.13%, against 2.93% for a typical month. Seasonality pointed the same way — Bitcoin has closed August green only twice since 2020, and on both occasions, September fell 7.30% and 7.96%.

That was the bearish case entering September. The historical script was clear.

But the last three Septembers all finished higher. September's reputation as Bitcoin's worst month is increasingly out of date. And as of today, September 20, Bitcoin is holding above $81,000 with positive momentum and institutional inflows continuing.

Bitcoin's relative stability in September is particularly significant given the historical trend. Analysts noted that Bitcoin's limited response to adverse news — including the Senate's failure to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — suggests a weakening of selling pressure. This could indicate a shift in market sentiment, potentially positioning Bitcoin as a more stable asset amidst ongoing economic challenges.

Part 2: The CLARITY Act Failed — Bitcoin Barely Flinched

On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49-50 against advancing the CLARITY Act — the most significant piece of crypto legislation in years. The bill would have permanently established Bitcoin and XRP's commodity classification under federal law. Standard Chartered had estimated its passage would unlock approximately $8 billion in additional ETF inflows across the digital asset space.

The bill is dead for 2026. The next window for comprehensive market structure legislation is now 2027 at the earliest.

Bitcoin's response? A brief pullback, followed by consolidation and a recovery to above $81,000.

Compare this to how Bitcoin would have responded to equivalent regulatory bad news in 2022 or 2023. A failed major piece of crypto legislation would have sent the price down 10-15% within days. The muted response in September 2026 tells you something important about where the market is structurally.

The holders who drove August's rally were primarily institutional. Hodler Net Position Change — which measures whether long-term holders are adding coins or releasing them — stayed negative for the entire rally. The rally was funds buying what holders and whales were handing over. That matters because it means the selling side was working through supply rather than reacting to bad news.

Institutional investors do not panic-sell on regulatory headlines the same way retail investors do. When Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Fidelity have Bitcoin positions, they are not selling because a Senate procedural vote failed. They are holding — or adding.

Part 3: Deutsche Bank Is Coming to Bitcoin

The most significant institutional development of September 2026 may be the one getting the least attention.

Deutsche Bank plans to provide Bitcoin and digital-asset custody services to European institutional clients by the end of 2026.

This is not a small fintech firm. This is Germany's largest bank — a 156-year-old financial institution managing approximately €1.3 trillion in assets — building infrastructure to hold Bitcoin on behalf of its institutional clients.

Consider what this means structurally. When Deutsche Bank offers Bitcoin custody, it opens Bitcoin exposure to every European institutional investor who has been prevented from holding digital assets by custodial and compliance requirements. Pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices that could not hold unregulated assets suddenly have a regulated, bank-grade pathway into Bitcoin.

Deutsche Bank's custody announcement is not a speculative bet on Bitcoin's price. It is an infrastructure decision — one that takes 12 to 18 months of internal compliance review, regulatory approval, and systems development before it reaches announcement stage. Deutsche Bank has already done that work. The announcement means the infrastructure is essentially ready.

When the infrastructure exists, the capital follows.

Part 4: The SEC Just Changed Everything for On-Chain Assets

On September 17 — just three days ago — the SEC unveiled a five-year "Innovation Exemption," for the first time allowing eligible platforms to facilitate on-chain trading of tokenized U.S. equities backed by real underlying shares.

U.S. platforms began moving quickly on on-chain equity and perpetual products immediately after the SEC's new policy was introduced.

This development deserves more attention than it is receiving in the context of Bitcoin specifically. Here is why it matters:

The SEC's Innovation Exemption represents a fundamental shift in how U.S. regulators view on-chain financial infrastructure. For five years, the SEC treated most on-chain activity as presumptively violating securities law. The Innovation Exemption inverts that presumption — for eligible platforms, on-chain activity is now presumptively permitted within defined parameters.

Bitcoin sits at the top of this regulatory evolution as the clearest and most established digital commodity. As on-chain financial infrastructure matures — stocks, bonds, and other assets moving to blockchain rails — Bitcoin's role as the foundational settlement layer and store of value becomes more, not less, relevant.

The SEC exemption is not a Bitcoin-specific story. But it is a story about the legitimization of the infrastructure that Bitcoin operates within — and that is unambiguously positive for the long-term demand picture.

Part 5: The Supply Side Has Never Been Tighter

With all the institutional and regulatory news dominating September headlines, it is easy to lose sight of the fundamental supply dynamic that underpins Bitcoin's long-term case.

As of June 12, 2026, Bitcoin's circulating supply stands at 20,057,778 BTC — meaning more than 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist is already in circulation. Only 942,222 BTC remain to be mined over the next century.

After the 2024 halving, the block reward is 3.125 BTC — produced every ten minutes, around the clock. That is approximately 450 BTC per day in new supply. At today's price of $81,260, that is approximately $36.6 million in daily new supply entering the market.

Against that supply, August alone saw $3.5 billion in ETF inflows — nearly 100 times the daily supply figure, concentrated in a single month.

The math of supply and demand has never been more favorable for Bitcoin. A fixed, declining supply schedule. A growing pool of institutional buyers operating through regulated vehicles. And an on-chain infrastructure that is becoming increasingly integrated with traditional financial markets.

The September 2026 price action — holding above $81,000 despite legislative failure, rate hikes, and historical seasonal headwinds — is the market expressing that math in real time.

Part 6: The Risks That Could Still Derail September

Balanced analysis requires acknowledging what could go wrong. Two specific technical risks deserve attention.

Risk 1: Leveraged long positioning. Bitcoin's positioning divergence score sits at 21.2, with top traders holding 111 points more long exposure than the average account. Binance alone carries $3.00 billion in long liquidation leverage below the price against $1.80 billion in short liquidation leverage above it. The market is asymmetrically positioned long — which means a sufficiently sharp downward move could trigger cascading liquidations that amplify the decline.

Risk 2: The post-ETF inflow pattern. Bitcoin fell in the month straight after seven of the twelve months that saw $3 billion or more in ETF inflows. The average return in those following months is 0.13% — essentially flat — against 2.93% for a typical month. August's $3.5 billion inflow month is the largest on record. If the historical pattern holds, September's strong start could fade as the momentum from that inflow wave exhausts itself.

These are not predictions. They are structural risks that sophisticated investors should factor into their positioning and risk management.

Part 7: What the Market Is Actually Telling You

Step back from the individual data points — the ETF flows, the CLARITY Act vote, the Deutsche Bank announcement, the SEC exemption — and a coherent picture emerges.

Bitcoin in September 2026 is behaving like an asset in the process of institutional adoption rather than speculative mania. The price is holding above $81,000 not because of retail euphoria but because institutional holders — the same ones who drove $3.5 billion in August inflows — are not selling on bad news.

The CLARITY Act failed and Bitcoin held. The Fed raised rates and Bitcoin held. September began with its historical reputation for losses and Bitcoin held.

That behavioral shift — from retail-driven volatility to institutional-driven stability — is the most important development in Bitcoin's market structure since the ETF launches in late 2025.

It does not mean Bitcoin cannot fall. It has fallen 50%+ from highs before and will likely do so again in some future cycle. But the floor beneath each correction is rising — because the buyer base is becoming more sophisticated, more capitalized, and more long-term oriented with each institutional entrant.

Deutsche Bank coming to Bitcoin custody is not a price catalyst for tomorrow. It is a statement about where Bitcoin will be in five years. The SEC's Innovation Exemption is not about this week's price. It is about the legitimacy of the infrastructure Bitcoin operates within for the next decade.

September 2026 is showing you the long-term direction. The short-term price will do what it does.

The Numbers: Where Bitcoin Stands Today
Metric Value
Bitcoin Price $81,260.70
24-Hour Change +0.46%
Fear & Greed Index 71 (Greed)
Ethereum $2,632.61 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 26,522.55 (+1.69%)
S&P 500 7,650.50 (+0.17%)
August ETF Inflows $3.5 billion (record)
Circulating Supply 20,057,778 BTC
Block Reward 3.125 BTC
The Bottom Line

Three things happened in September 2026 that would have sent Bitcoin sharply lower in any previous market cycle: a major piece of crypto legislation failed in the Senate, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and the month began with its historical reputation as Bitcoin's worst.

Bitcoin is holding above $81,000.

Deutsche Bank is building Bitcoin custody infrastructure. The SEC is legitimizing on-chain financial markets. ETF inflows reversed a six-month negative trend in a single month. And the circulating supply of Bitcoin — now at 20,057,778 of a permanent maximum of 21 million — continues to shrink as a percentage of total demand.

September is not over. The risks are real and the leveraged positioning is worth watching. But the market is speaking clearly: the floor beneath Bitcoin is rising, the buyer base is maturing, and the infrastructure being built in 2026 is designed for a much larger Bitcoin market than exists today.

The question is no longer whether Bitcoin belongs in institutional portfolios. Deutsche Bank answered that question on behalf of European institutions this month. The question is how much.

20/08/2026

Bitcoin Smashes Through $71,000 — Two-Month High Reached as Treasury Buybacks and Short Squeeze Ignite the Market
The Breakout That Changed Everything
Three weeks ago, Bitcoin was testing $62,662 — the range floor that had held since late June, defended repeatedly by buyers who refused to let the price fall further. Today, August 20, 2026, Bitcoin has smashed through $71,000, posting a single-day gain of more than 11% and reaching its highest level since early June.
Bitcoin surged 11% in a single day, rising above $71,000 and reaching a more than two-month high.
The catalyst is improving liquidity from expanded Treasury long-bond buybacks, and the chart is already breaking $71,000 with momentum: reclaiming the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $70,325 and challenging the 200-day EMA at approximately $71,941.
This is not a routine bounce. From the August low near $62,662 to today's $71,000+ print, Bitcoin has recovered more than 13% in three weeks — and the move has structural backing from institutional ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and a macro environment that shifted decisively in Bitcoin's favor over the past 48 hours.
Here is everything you need to know about what happened, why it happened, and what comes next.

The Three Catalysts That Ignited the Move
Catalyst 1: U.S. Treasury Doubles Long-Term Bond Buybacks
The primary driver of today's move came not from inside crypto, but from Washington.
On August 20, Bitcoin surged over 8% to test $70,000, driven by the U.S. Treasury's increased bond buybacks injecting market liquidity and favorable regulatory developments.
The U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The immediate market effect was a decline in the 30-year Treasury yield from 5.337% to 5.18%. When long-term yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin decreases — capital that was parked in Treasuries at 5.3% yields faces a different calculus at 5.18%, and some of that rotation flowed directly into risk assets including Bitcoin.
This is the same mechanism that drove Bitcoin's bull runs during the 2020-2021 quantitative easing period: when the Federal Reserve and Treasury expand liquidity, scarce assets with fixed supply benefit disproportionately. Today's Treasury action is a smaller version of that playbook — but in a market that had been range-bound for weeks, even a modest liquidity injection was enough to trigger a cascade.

Catalyst 2: The $2.7 Billion Short Squeeze
This rally spurred massive ETF inflows and triggered over $2.7 billion in forced liquidations.
During Bitcoin's weeks of consolidation between $62,000 and $65,000, a significant short position had built up. Traders betting against Bitcoin — expecting another leg down — accumulated leveraged short positions that needed to be unwound when the price began moving higher.
The mechanism is self-reinforcing: rising prices force short sellers to buy back their positions, which pushes prices higher, which forces more short sellers to cover, which pushes prices higher still. This cascade is what turns a 3-4% move driven by fundamental catalysts into an 11% single-day surge.
On August 20, Eastern Time, Bitcoin surged over 8% to test $70,000, driven by the U.S. Treasury's increased bond buybacks injecting market liquidity and favorable regulatory developments. This rally spurred massive ETF inflows and triggered over $2.7 billion in forced liquidations.
The scale of the liquidations — $2.7 billion in a single session — reflects how heavily positioned the market was for further downside. That positioning is now largely cleared, which paradoxically improves the technical setup for continued upside: there are fewer shorts to be squeezed, but also significantly less overhead selling pressure from trapped short positions.

Catalyst 3: White House Crypto Meeting and Regulatory Progress
The rally did not stop with Bitcoin. Ethereum climbed back about $2,000, while Solana and other major cryptocurrencies also posted strong gains.
A closed-door meeting between President Trump, major crypto executives, and regulators focused on the CLARITY Act and tokenization sent a positive regulatory signal to markets. The administration's active engagement with crypto legislation — even while the bill remains stalled in the Senate — was interpreted as a sign that regulatory clarity is coming, if not immediately.
The SEC's proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework, announced August 18, adding tailored exemptions and a $5 million startup raise allowance, also contributed to the improved regulatory backdrop that preceded today's move.

The Technical Picture: Why $71,941 Is the Number That Matters
A breakout above $70,519.33 would put Bitcoin on track to test the 200-day EMA and potentially confirm a trend reversal. If Bitcoin price clears the daily R1 at $70,519.33, the next target would be the 200-day EMA near $71,676.06. Clearing that level would convert this from a stretched bounce into a confirmed trend reversal.
Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day exponential moving average since the April 2026 correction began. The 200-day EMA is the single most watched long-term trend indicator in traditional and crypto markets alike — and Bitcoin has now spent more than four months below it.
A daily close above approximately $71,941 turns resistance into support and opens a move toward approximately $77,489 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), then approximately $82,850.
Today's price action has brought Bitcoin within striking distance of that decisive level. A daily close above $71,941 would be the most technically significant Bitcoin development since the October 2025 all-time high — it would mean Bitcoin has reclaimed its long-term trend and that the correction is structurally over, not just temporarily bounced.
The full technical roadmap:
Level Type Significance
$70,325 Support 50% Fibonacci — already reclaimed
$71,000+ Current price Today's breakout level
$71,941 Key resistance 200-day EMA — defines bull vs. bear
$72,097 Resistance 2026 projected range ceiling
$77,489 Target 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
$82,850 Target Medium-term bull case
$67,342 Support Daily pivot — must hold on any pullback
$65,416 Critical support Loss here invalidates bull thesis
The daily chart shows a recovery that has not yet been confirmed, with price above short-term EMAs but still below the 200-day EMA. The daily close at $68,361.99 sits above both the 20-EMA ($64,367.74) and 50-EMA ($64,532.05), which is constructive for the short-to-medium trend. RSI14 on the daily is at 70.99, comfortably in overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD shows a positive histogram of 307.63 with the line at 295.46 crossing above a signal of -12.15 — a fresh bullish crossover, not a tired one, which adds credibility to the move.
The overbought RSI reading is the primary technical caution flag. When RSI exceeds 70 after an extended move, pullbacks become more likely — not because the trend is over, but because the market needs time to digest the move. A healthy pullback toward $67,000-$68,000 before the next leg higher would actually be more constructive than a straight-line continuation to $75,000.

What the On-Chain Data Shows
Bottom line: Bitcoin has broken the August range with the rally now approaching confluent resistance and the immediate focus is on whether the bulls can stabilize the breakout.
Several on-chain indicators were flashing accumulation signals before today's move that give the breakout structural credibility:
Whale accumulation. Whale accumulation reported by Bloomberg gives this scenario structural backing. Large Bitcoin holders had been accumulating quietly during the $62,000-$65,000 consolidation — buying when retail sentiment was most fearful. Today's move rewards that patience.
ETF inflows returning. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $854 million from August 3-7, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for roughly $694 million. The institutional bid for Bitcoin through ETFs had been consistent even during the price consolidation — today's move is partly a catch-up to that underlying demand.
Long-term holder conviction. Long-term holders now control more than 84% of Bitcoin's supply — the strongest holder conviction since 2016. When long-term holders refuse to sell during a correction, the available supply for panic sellers to dump is structurally limited. Today's move reflects that constrained supply meeting returning institutional demand.

The August Seasonal Paradox
Bitcoin closed August in the red in nine of the last thirteen years, with an average monthly decline of approximately 7.5%. Today's move — taking Bitcoin from $62,662 at the August low to $71,000+ — represents a 13%+ gain within what is historically the weakest month of the year.
This is not unusual for Bitcoin during macro inflection points. The historical seasonal weakness reflects the absence of catalysts, not the presence of structural bears. When genuine macro catalysts arrive — as they did today in the form of the Treasury buyback announcement — Bitcoin's historical patterns become less predictive.
The more relevant question is whether today's move marks a genuine macro inflection point or a high-velocity but ultimately temporary squeeze. The answer depends significantly on what happens at Jackson Hole.

Jackson Hole: The Next Decisive Catalyst
Bitcoin's biggest near-term catalyst remains the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29 in Wyoming. The 2026 theme — "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" — is the most directly crypto-relevant conference theme in Jackson Hole's history.
Fed Chair Warsh's keynote address carries two potential market-moving dimensions:
Dimension 1: Rate guidance. Any signal that September brings a rate cut — whether 25 or 50 basis points — would validate and extend today's move. The combination of the Treasury's liquidity injection and a dovish Fed signal would create the sustained institutional bid that could drive Bitcoin through the $77,000-$82,000 range.
Dimension 2: Digital payments policy. With the conference theme explicitly addressing financial innovation and payments, any constructive language toward Bitcoin or digital assets from a senior Fed official would be an additional catalyst that no previous Jackson Hole has carried.
The scenario matrix for the next two weeks:
Scenario Conditions Bitcoin Target
Strong bull Close above $71,941 + dovish Jackson Hole $77,489–$82,850
Base case Consolidation $67,000–$72,000 + neutral Jackson Hole $70,000–$75,000
Bear case Fail to hold $70,325 + hawkish Jackson Hole $65,000–$67,000

The Broader Crypto Market: Everything Is Moving
The rally did not stop with Bitcoin. Ethereum climbed back about $2,000, while Solana and other major cryptocurrencies also posted strong gains.
Bitcoin dominance has reached 61% — the highest reading of 2026 — which historically signals that Bitcoin-led moves are in their early stages. When Bitcoin dominance rises sharply, it reflects capital consolidating into the most established asset. When that dominance then begins to fall from elevated levels, it typically signals that capital is rotating outward into Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies — the pattern that defines the altcoin season of every Bitcoin bull cycle.
We are not there yet. But today's move, with Bitcoin dominance at 61% and Ethereum recovering toward $2,000, represents the early stages of the setup that precedes that rotation.

The Reality Check: What Could Still Go Wrong
Today's move is one of the most constructive developments in Bitcoin's 2026 narrative. But experienced investors know that Bitcoin has produced dramatic single-day reversals multiple times in the current cycle.
At present, Bitcoin's price has only touched $70,000 without consolidating above this mark. It could potentially pull back to retest $67,000 before launching a new offensive. The next key, extremely strong resistance level is near $82,000, roughly 17% above current levels. BTC must achieve a solid breakout on expanded volume in this range to fully clear the structural resistance above and officially launch a new bull market.
The specific risks to watch:
Risk 1: Failure to hold the 200-day EMA. Key risk: BTC fails to hold above the 200-day EMA at approximately $71,941 and quickly falls back below approximately $70,325, triggering a momentum unwind and deeper retracement. If Bitcoin closes today below $71,941, the breakout signal is not yet confirmed.
Risk 2: Jackson Hole hawkish surprise. Warsh has eliminated forward guidance, making his Jackson Hole speech genuinely unpredictable. Any hawkish language would immediately reprice rate expectations and challenge today's move.
Risk 3: Profit-taking from the $82,000 structural level. A large volume of historical break-even selling pressure and profit-taking buy orders are concentrated at $82,000. Any rally toward that level will face significant headwind from investors who bought in the $80,000-$90,000 range during late 2025 and are waiting to exit at break-even.

The Bottom Line
Bitcoin on August 20, 2026 has done something it has not done since early June: broken decisively above $70,000. The move is backed by a genuine macro catalyst (Treasury buybacks), institutional demand (ETF inflows), structural on-chain support (whale accumulation, 84% long-term holder control), and a short-covering cascade that cleared the market's overleveraged short positioning.
Bitcoin holds strong near $70K in 2026, signaling accumulation. A breakout above $82K could drive BTC toward $120K–$150K this cycle.
The single most important number over the next 48 hours is $71,941 — the 200-day EMA. A daily close above it confirms the trend reversal. A failure to hold it opens the door for a healthy pullback toward $67,000 before the next attempt.
For long-term investors, the structural case for Bitcoin has not changed — and today's move validates it. Fixed supply of 21 million coins, growing institutional ownership now at 65% of global reserves, improving regulatory clarity, and a macro environment pivoting toward lower rates. The question has never been whether Bitcoin would recover from the 2026 correction. It has always been when.
Today's answer looks increasingly like: now.
Official website: https://asdefi.com

09/08/2026

Bitcoin, August 9, 2026: Senate Shelves CLARITY Act, BIP-110 Fork Stalls, and BTC Holds $64,600

Three Stories That Define Bitcoin This Weekend

This weekend, three separate developments are shaping Bitcoin's outlook heading into the second week of August — and none of them are about the price itself.

Bitcoin is trading near $64,600 as the U.S. Senate shelved the CLARITY Act ahead of its August recess. A controversial Bitcoin fork, BIP-110, mined two blocks and then stopped. And the jobs report that came in last Friday provided an unexpected macro tailwind that markets are still digesting.
Yahoo Finance
CoinDesk

Understanding all three is essential for anyone trying to make sense of where Bitcoin goes from here.

Story One: The CLARITY Act Is Dead — For Now

The U.S. Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act this month, dimming hopes that the bill can become law this year.
CoinDesk

This is the most significant regulatory development of the week — and for Bitcoin investors, it is a disappointment rather than a disaster. The CLARITY Act would have provided a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, clarifying which cryptocurrencies are commodities versus securities and establishing clear rules for exchanges and custodians.

The bill needed 60 votes to advance — requiring approximately seven Democratic senators to cross the aisle. That threshold was never reached. With the Senate heading into its August recess without a vote, the bill's window for 2026 passage has narrowed dramatically.

The immediate market reaction to the shelving was modest — Bitcoin dipped briefly but quickly recovered to $64,600 — which tells us something important: the market had already largely priced out the CLARITY Act as a near-term catalyst. Polymarket had been pricing the bill's 2026 passage probability at approximately 35% for several weeks.

The digital asset manager's CIO at Bitwise, Matt Hougan, says large capital pools control up to $200 trillion globally, and just a 1% shift toward Bitcoin could unlock massive long-term growth. The CLARITY Act's failure does not change that thesis. It delays the institutional infrastructure that would make that shift easier — but it does not reverse the direction of travel.
CoinDesk

Story Two: The BIP-110 Fork — What Happened and Why It Matters

The more technically significant story of the weekend involves a Bitcoin protocol controversy that has been building for months.

The controversial Bitcoin fork BIP-110 mined two blocks, then stopped. The breakaway chain inherited Bitcoin's mining difficulty with only a tiny share of hashpower, leaving blocks hours apart while both chains still accept the same transactions.
CoinDesk

Bitcoin splits at block 961,632 as Antpool and Roughnecks mine rival blocks, leaving the BIP-110 chain stalled, at least for now.
Bitcoin News

To understand why this matters, some background is necessary. BIP-110 is a proposed change to Bitcoin's protocol that has divided the mining community. The core dispute involves block size and transaction throughput — a debate that echoes Bitcoin's 2017 hard fork that created Bitcoin Cash. This time, the split appears to be smaller and less well-supported by hashpower than the original chain.

The ongoing Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit whose losses have topped $111 million has also added to the security concerns surrounding the Bitcoin ecosystem this month.
TheStreet

For most Bitcoin holders, the BIP-110 situation is noise rather than signal. Bitcoin has survived multiple fork attempts since 2017, and the market's consistent verdict has been that the original chain — the one with the most hashpower and the strongest Lindy effect — retains the overwhelming majority of value. The BIP-110 chain's inability to mine blocks consistently suggests it lacks the mining support to remain viable.

The more relevant concern is what this signals about protocol governance: Bitcoin's development process depends on rough consensus among miners, developers, and users. Contested hard forks, even unsuccessful ones, consume community attention and can temporarily dampen institutional enthusiasm.

Story Three: The Jobs Report Changed the Fed Narrative

Bitcoin holds onto gains from a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report that cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The current price of Bitcoin is about $64,940, up modestly on the day.
TheStreet

Last Friday's non-farm payrolls report came in weaker than expected — a development that has meaningfully shifted the market's reading of what the Federal Reserve will do in September. Before the report, the probability of a September rate hike was hovering near 30%. After it, that probability has fallen back below 20%, while the probability of a rate cut has risen correspondingly.

Continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady accumulation by large holders, or "whales," have added support.
TheStreet

For Bitcoin, the macro tailwind from the jobs report is the most constructive development of the past two weeks. Lower rate hike expectations reduce the attractiveness of holding cash, which supports risk assets. Combined with steady ETF inflows and whale accumulation, the setup for a move toward the $66,800-$67,000 resistance zone is more credible now than it was a week ago.

The Technical Picture: Same Range, Different Catalyst Landscape

As of August 7, 2026, Bitcoin has traded in a range of roughly $64,100 to $65,300. The price is up about 0.8% on the day and around 2.8% over the past seven days, but remains about 48% below its all-time high. Bitcoin's market capitalization is about $1.30 trillion, keeping it the world's largest cryptocurrency and roughly 57% of the entire crypto market.
TheStreet

The price range has not changed materially. What has changed is the catalyst landscape surrounding it:

Last week's catalysts (mostly bearish):

Three Fed dissenters voting for a rate hike
CLARITY Act uncertainty
BIP-110 fork concerns
Coldcard exploit losses exceeding $111 million

This week's catalysts (mixed to bullish):

Weak jobs report reducing rate hike probability
CLARITY Act uncertainty resolved (it's delayed, not dead)
BIP-110 fork stalling without major hashpower support
ETF inflows and whale accumulation continuing

The net effect is a market that is modestly more constructive than it was seven days ago — but not yet at the point where the $67,000 resistance has been challenged with conviction.

Key technical levels remain unchanged:

Level Type Significance
$63,898 Support Break below reopens $62,662
$64,000 Support Psychological floor
$64,600 Current price August 9, 2026
$64,587 Resistance 50-day EMA
$66,800–$67,000 Resistance Major ceiling
$67,025 Resistance 100-day EMA
$72,569 Resistance 200-day EMA
What Jackson Hole Changes

With the CLARITY Act shelved and the BIP-110 fork seemingly contained, the single most important event on the Bitcoin calendar is now the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29.

The 2026 Jackson Hole theme — "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" — is the most directly crypto-relevant conference theme in Jackson Hole history. Fed Chair Warsh's keynote address is still, by his own admission, "a blank piece of paper" — meaning markets have almost no visibility into what he will say.

The two most important questions Warsh could answer at Jackson Hole:

Question 1: Will the Fed cut rates in September, and by how much? A soft August CPI report on August 12 — the next major data point before Jackson Hole — would significantly increase the probability of a 50-basis-point cut, which would be strongly bullish for Bitcoin.

Question 2: What is the Fed's view on digital assets and their role in the payments system? Any language suggesting a favorable regulatory posture toward Bitcoin would add to the post-CLARITY-Act uncertainty that has weighed on institutional positioning.

The Institutional Thesis: $200 Trillion and 1%

Amid the week's news noise, perhaps the most significant statement came not from a regulator or a technologist, but from an asset manager.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says large capital pools control up to $200 trillion globally, and just a 1% shift toward Bitcoin could unlock massive long-term growth.
CoinDesk

This is the institutional thesis in its simplest form: the world's largest pools of capital — pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, insurance companies — collectively control approximately $200 trillion. If 1% of that capital rotates into Bitcoin, that represents $2 trillion of additional demand for an asset with a current market cap of $1.3 trillion.

This thesis does not depend on retail FOMO, speculative momentum, or any specific regulatory catalyst. It depends only on institutional investors — who are already dipping their toes into Bitcoin via ETFs — continuing to increase their allocations as the asset class matures. The CLARITY Act's delay is a headwind for this thesis. It is not a refutation of it.

August Outlook: Three Scenarios Unchanged

The three scenarios that defined Bitcoin's August outlook remain in place:

Scenario 1: Breakout (Probability: 35%)
Soft CPI on August 12, dovish Warsh at Jackson Hole, and a decisive break above $67,000 opening the path toward $70,000.

Scenario 2: Range-Bound (Probability: 45%)
Bitcoin continues oscillating between $64,000 and $67,000 through Jackson Hole, with the September Fed decision as the next potential decisive catalyst.

Scenario 3: Breakdown (Probability: 20%)
BIP-110 fork concerns escalate, CLARITY Act delay triggers institutional risk-off, and Bitcoin breaks below $63,898 toward $62,662 and potentially the June 30 low near $57,748.

The weak jobs report has modestly shifted probability from the breakdown scenario to the breakout scenario compared to last week. The CLARITY Act's shelving is a headwind but one that was partially anticipated.

Key Events This Week
Date Event Importance
Aug 9 (Today) Weekend price action settling 🟡 Watch ETF flows Monday
Aug 12 U.S. CPI Inflation Report 🔴 Critical
Aug 14 Institutional 13F Disclosures 🟡 Medium
Aug 19 GDP Data 🟡 Medium
Aug 27-29 Jackson Hole Symposium 🔴 Most Important
Sep 16 Fed Rate Decision 🔴 Critical
The Bottom Line

Bitcoin enters the second week of August at $64,600 — holding its range, digesting three significant developments simultaneously, and waiting for a catalyst that forces a decisive move.

The CLARITY Act's delay removes a potential upside catalyst but does not change Bitcoin's fundamental thesis. The BIP-110 fork's apparent failure removes a potential downside risk. The weak jobs report adds a macro tailwind that could mature into a September rate cut narrative.

Working against the backdrop are lingering headwinds, including regulatory uncertainty, the BIP-110 protocol debate, and the Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit whose losses have topped $111 million.
TheStreet

For long-term investors, the structural case for Bitcoin has not changed. For short-term traders, the August 12 CPI report and the August 27-29 Jackson Hole Symposium are the two events most likely to force Bitcoin out of the $64,000-$67,000 box it has been sitting in for three consecutive weeks.

Until one of those events breaks the range, the most likely outcome remains more of the same — patient accumulation by long-term holders, cautious positioning by institutional traders, and a price that waits for macro clarity that only the Federal Reserve can provide.

Address

Cardinal House, 20 Street Marys Parsonage
Manchester
M32LY

Website

https://asdefi.com/

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when ASDeFi posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

ASDeFi

20/09/2026

20/08/2026

09/08/2026

Address

Website

Alerts

Shortcuts

Share

Category

Listing takedown request