08/03/2026
Weekly Market Insight - 08/03/2026
This is an energy shock week, not a stability week.
USDJPY spent the week trading directly around the neckline of a developing double bottom near 157.66. After the sharp January drop into the daily 200 EMA, price rebuilt structure and moved back above its cluster of daily EMAs, but momentum stalled as it approached the neckline. The pair repeatedly tested that level without producing a decisive breakout. For now the market remains in a retest phase rather than expansion. Sustained acceptance above the neckline would reopen the path toward the January highs near 159.45, but until then the structure remains unresolved.
NZDUSD has moved in the opposite structural direction. The pair completed a developing double top formed between late January and mid-February, with the neckline near 0.5928. Price broke below that level during the week and briefly moved beneath the daily 200 EMA before stabilising. Into the close the market sat almost directly on top of the 200-day average, leaving the breakdown in a fragile position. The measured projection from the structure suggests scope toward roughly 0.5779 if continuation develops, with the late-December support zone near 0.5735 also visible beneath.
FTSE 100 has moved from record highs into a structural retest. After printing an all-time high near 10,937 at the end of February, the index began retracing as global risk sentiment weakened. Price first lost the 4H 50 EMA, then slipped beneath the 4H 200 EMA before drifting down toward the 10,250 region. That level previously acted as resistance during the January rally, and into Friday the market was testing whether it can now act as support. Below that area the next structural reference sits around 10,050–10,100.
The Trap This Week: Assuming geopolitical headlines alone determine direction. Energy shocks and volatility spikes can accelerate moves, but they rarely erase technical structure overnight. Markets often react first, then return to test the levels that actually define positioning. Reacting to headlines rather than behaviour around those levels increases misalignment.
My Focus: Respect the retest. USDJPY is testing whether its double bottom can confirm above the neckline. NZDUSD is sitting directly on its 200-day average after breaking structure. The FTSE is examining whether prior resistance can hold as support. The outcome at any single level is largely down to chance, but consistency of behaviour around those levels provides the real information.
Markets have shifted from quiet consolidation into volatility. Oil surged, yields rose, and equities moved from stability into repricing mode.
This is pressure testing, not disorder. Structure will reveal whether these levels hold once the initial shock settles.
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