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Frontier Daily, 4 August: EM slips further as US risk-free rates inch upwards.
04/08/2023

Frontier Daily, 4 August: EM slips further as US risk-free rates inch upwards.

Investment grade EM eurobonds led losses, down 0.9% yesterday despite spreads holding at multi-year lows (

Azerbaijan: Amid pessimism over oil output fall, Natural Gas is booming.
04/08/2023

Azerbaijan: Amid pessimism over oil output fall, Natural Gas is booming.

ADB joined S&P global in downgrading Azerbaijan's growth prospects as a result of an unexpected decline in oil output

10%-ers: Number of high-yield sovereigns unchanged ytd despite HY rally.
03/08/2023

10%-ers: Number of high-yield sovereigns unchanged ytd despite HY rally.

We count 22 countries in the EM index that with yields on US dollar sovereign bonds above 10% (15) or in default (7)

India's communal violence restricted to small states (so far).
03/08/2023

India's communal violence restricted to small states (so far).

Communal violence in Manipur and Haryana: states that collectively account for merely 2% of GDP, 4% of parliament

Venezuela: Opposition on the rise but fair elections still seem distant prospect.
03/08/2023

Venezuela: Opposition on the rise but fair elections still seem distant prospect.

Opposition's primary elections in October will select candidate to stand against Maduro in next year's election

Frontier Daily, 3 August: US downgrade sell-off, Brazil cuts, Lebanon rally.
03/08/2023

Frontier Daily, 3 August: US downgrade sell-off, Brazil cuts, Lebanon rally.

Fitch US downgrade sparks sell-off, with EM stocks down 2.2%, eurobonds down 0.7% & EM FX index at new all-time lows

EM sovereign bond issuance falls to 12-month low in July as HY rally continues.
02/08/2023

EM sovereign bond issuance falls to 12-month low in July as HY rally continues.

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance fell for the fourth month running in July to just US$1bn, lowest since Jul '22

Frontier Daily, 2 August: High yield and long end leads EM spread widening.
02/08/2023

Frontier Daily, 2 August: High yield and long end leads EM spread widening.

Lebanon topped eurobond gains again yesterday following optimism around new central bank leadership

What we got right so far in 2023 and what we got wrong.
02/08/2023

What we got right so far in 2023 and what we got wrong.

EM assets have performed well ytd, with local currency debt up 4% and hard currency debt up 5.5% (3.1% IG, 7.9% HY)

Kenya: Downgrade to Hold as rally pushes spreads below target.
01/08/2023

Kenya: Downgrade to Hold as rally pushes spreads below target.

Kenya ‘32s have breached our 700bps spread target, dropping below 660bps on 31 July

Chile: First rate cut of cycle sees FX losses & further unwinding of carry trade.
01/08/2023

Chile: First rate cut of cycle sees FX losses & further unwinding of carry trade.

Chile kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bps cut, surpassing the expected 75bps in response to disinflation surprise

Rate cuts in EM: Who else cuts after Chile and with what risk?.
01/08/2023

Rate cuts in EM: Who else cuts after Chile and with what risk?.

Consensus view that EM was quicker to hike rates post-Covid than DM and core inflation is not as severe

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