09/10/2026
This week the average five-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6% and it is a useful illustration of what has been happening across investment markets over the last couple of weeks.
Bond markets have again been volatile, interest rate expectations have moved around and that has pushed up the cost of borrowing.
Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by the bond markets, which is why what happens there eventually finds its way through to the retail mortgage rates we all see quoted.
Stock markets have had a typical dose of turbulence too over recent weeks but, despite everything going on, my message is exactly the same as it always is.
Markets go up and down and back up again on a rolling repeat basis. Sometimes they do both in the space of just a few days.
We don’t know what markets will do next week, next month or even for the remainder of this year but, importantly, we don’t really need to know.
The portfolios we build are designed with these periods in mind, not on the assumption that markets will always behave as we want and just keep going up.
There is no getting away from the permanent advance and, as I’ve probably said 101 times, the temporary falls are part of the same deal. You can’t have one without the other.
The price we must all pay for an income we cannot outlive and for real long-term growth on our investment capital is the temporary declines along the way.
It simply isn’t possible to achieve the growth without them.
It’s a marriage, although perhaps not one made in heaven because it certainly doesn’t feel like it when markets are falling.
Importantly, we remain globally diversified. We remain disciplined. We don’t chase yesterday’s winners and we don’t abandon what we know works just because markets look temporarily uncomfortable.
The image at the top of this note is one of my favourite illustrations of why. It's a bit small I know and you can request a copy of the book - just reply to this post.
Each colour represents a different country and shows where its stock market finished each year, from the best performer at the top to the worst at the bottom.
Take a look across it. There is no pattern. The developed world countries are on the left and emerging world to the right.
Countries move from the top to the bottom and back again, often remarkably quickly. The winners change and, importantly, we don’t know in advance where the next winner is going to come from.
Dimensional’s latest market review gives us another example. Emerging markets have risen strongly this year, led by markets including Taiwan and South Korea.
That is precisely why we diversify globally rather than trying to predict which country, market or company will win next.
We don’t need to find the needle if we own the haystack.
And although higher bond yields can suddenly make fixed income look more attractive, the long-term evidence doesn’t suggest that higher interest rates are a reason to abandon equities or start changing a carefully constructed investment mix.
If drawing an income, and we find ourselves in the middle of a longer-term dip which doesn’t recover as rapidly as the typical month-by-month or intramonth falls, we have defensive assets and cash precisely so that we aren’t forced to sell equities at the wrong time.
If still accumulating, periods like this are simply part of the journey.
There will always be something for markets to worry about. Always something for the news to make sound terrible.
My job is not to predict the next piece of news, the next interest rate move or where markets will be at Christmas.
It is to make sure your financial plan and investment strategy are robust enough that we don’t have to.
So, as ever, we keep calm, remain invested and let the plan do its job.
* image taken from 2026 Dimensional Matrix Book and used with permission