28/05/2026
May was a month that reminded businesses and individuals alike why FX risk management is never optional.
1️⃣ The BoE Holds at 3.75% (8 May)
The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on 30 April in an 8-1 hawkish vote, setting a cautious tone heading into May. The decision kept Sterling range-bound, with the market torn between rate hike and cut scenarios, a tension that would define the pound's trajectory all month.
2️⃣ Powell's Exit and the Warsh Era Begins (15 May)
Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ended on 15 May, with Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation advancing, introducing a new layer of uncertainty for the dollar. The FOMC's 8-4 split at the final Powell meeting was the most dissents recorded at a single Fed meeting since 1992, reflecting a committee increasingly divided on the inflation outlook.
3️⃣ UK Political Turmoil Weighs on GBP (All Month)
Labour's heavy local election losses and Andy Burnham's clearance to stand in a by-election (widely seen as a precursor to a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer) kept Sterling on the defensive throughout May. GBP/USD retreated toward 1.3380 after failing to hold gains above 1.34, undermined by a stronger dollar and renewed UK political and fiscal risk concerns, while GBP/EUR briefly dipped to three-week lows just below 1.1500.
4️⃣ UK CPI Undershoots and Changes the Rate Story (20 May)
April CPI came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the 3.0% forecast and down sharply from 3.3% in March. Core inflation fell to 2.5%, also beating expectations. The weaker inflation data raised fresh expectations that the Bank of England could move closer to cutting interest rates in the coming months; a significant shift that pushed GBP/EUR lower immediately on release and materially altered the BoE's June calculus.
5️⃣ ECB June Hike Becomes Near-Certain (All Month)
Money markets moved to price an 86% probability of a 25bp ECB hike at the 11 June meeting, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, a striking shift from late March, when consensus expected the ECB to remain on hold through Q3. With Eurozone headline inflation jumping to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, driven almost entirely by energy, the ECB's hand has been forced.
June brings three central bank decisions soon. ECB on 11 June, Fed on 17 June, Bank of England on 19 June.
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