Hawk FX

02/06/2025

Weekly Market Update | 2 June 2025

This week, we focus on two major themes:
🔻 A potential rate cut from the ECB as inflation moderates
💼 Key employment data from the US, which could shape the Fed’s next move

Last week saw limited UK data, leaving the pound steady. Meanwhile, euro strength was supported by sticky inflation and ECB commentary. In the US, softer data and a debt ceiling resolution weighed on the dollar.

Looking ahead, markets will be watching:
✔ Final PMIs across the UK, Eurozone & US
✔ Retail sales and consumer confidence data
✔ Friday’s all-important US non-farm payrolls

📉 Central bank spotlight:
– ECB meeting Thursday – expected to cut rates from 2.4% to 2.15%
– Bank of Canada decision due Wednesday – no change expected at 2.75%

📎 Read the full update here → https://zurl.co/EAKBb

27/05/2025

Currency Market Outlook: UK Inflation, Eurozone Weakness & US Data in Focus – Week of 27 May 2025

🇬🇧 GBP – Stronger UK Retail Sales and PMI Lift Pound – Inflation Delays BoE Cuts

🇪🇺 EUR – Euro Pressured by Soft Inflation and Services PMIs – Eyes on German CPI

🇺🇸 USD – USD Supported by Durable Goods and Fed Caution – Core PCE in Focus

Check out the full report here😀
https://bit.ly/3ZztVUc

10/10/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 10/10/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – August GDP is expected to bounce back to growth 💷
This week, we will see the monthly GDP for August. The July figure saw a drop as a result of strike action and poor weather. The markets expect a rebound in August of up to 0.3%…

🇪🇺 EUR – ECB minutes to give indication of future moves 💶
This week, we will see some evidence of activity in the third quarter with German and Eurozone industrial production data. German factory orders bounced in August but remain lower than this time last year…

🇺🇸 USD - Much stronger non-farm payrolls may influence Fed 💵
Last week, we saw a further rise in Treasury bond yields (close to 4.9%) and the US dollar, which reflects a strong US economy. The labour market report revealed a much stronger non-farm payrolls figure of 336,000 jobs being added in September…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/48O0AZu

ECB minutes to give indication of future moves; Much stronger US non-farm payrolls may influence Fed; August UK GDP is expected to bounce back to growth

03/10/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 03/10/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Latest updates on weakening economy and inflation 💷
As we close out the third quarter, the focus remains on the future path of inflation and interest rates. Within bond markets, the rise over this quarter has been significant. With central banks close to the end of their hiking cycles…

🇪🇺 EUR – Inflation fell to 4.3%, PMIs to confirm weakening growth 💶
Last week ended with Eurozone inflation falling more than expected to 4.3% in September from 5.2% in August. This will reinforce expectations that interest rates may have peaked…

🇺🇸 USD - Shutdown averted, Strong employment expected 💵
Over the weekend, the focus was on the potential implications of a US federal government shutdown. This was narrowly avoided as we started the new fiscal year on 1st October…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/3PDY2UN

Latest UK updates on weaker economy and inflation; Inflation fell to 4.3%, PMIs to confirm weakening growth; Shutdown averted, Strong employment expected

27/09/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 27/09/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Bank of England hold rates at 5.25%, to watch data 💷
Last week, the major surprise was that the Bank of England committee voted not to hike by 5-4. Governor Bailey was the casting vote and decided on no rate hike. This follows 14 consecutive rate hikes that started at the end of 2021…

🇪🇺 EUR – Riksbank and Norges Bank hike by 0.25% but Swiss hold rates 💶
It was a busy week last week for central banks, across Europe as well. As expected, Sweden’s Riksbank and Norges Bank both hiked rates by 0.25%. The Swiss National Bank surprised markets, before the Bank of England, in leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.75%…

🇺🇸 USD - Federal Reserve agree second hawkish hold on rates 💵
The Fed paused on rate hikes again, for the second time this year. Markets still believe that the Fed may have one more hike left to come in 2023, partially driven by the ‘dot plot’ of Fed members’ expectations…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/453SYi9

Riksbank and Norges Bank hike by 0.25%, Swiss hold rates; Federal Reserve agree second hawkish hold on rates; Bank of England hold rates at 5.25%, to watch data

19/09/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 19/09/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Bank of England likely to hike rates by 0.25% to 5.5% 💷
The announcement by the Bank of England will be the key focus in the UK. Most people expect the BoE to hike rates by a further 0.25% to 5.50%. This will be the 15th meeting in a row that rates have increased…

🇪🇺 EUR – ECB hike by 0.25% to 4% but may now pause 💶
Last week, the European Central Bank gave its latest interest rate decision. They raised rates by 0.25% to 4%. The rise came despite recent signs that economic activity is faltering...

🇺🇸 USD - Federal Reserve to pause again even as inflation rises 💵
In contrast to the other central banks, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave its interest rates unchanged tomorrow. This will be the second pause of the year. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed provides any further guidance…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/46hgNnH

Bank of England likely to hike rates by 0.25% to 5.5%; ECB hike by 0.25% to 4% but may now pause; Federal Reserve to pause again even as inflation rises

12/09/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 12/09/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market 💷
Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey. There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year…

🇪🇺 EUR – European Central Bank may pause, with a 40% chance of a hike 💶
The key this week will be the European Central Bank’s policy decision. The ECB has raised rates for the last 9 meetings. However, this decision is on a knife-edge with weaker growth balanced against lingering concerns about high inflation…

🇺🇸 USD - Inflation and Retail sales expected stronger, USD strength 💵
Markets have been volatile, with Treasury yields rising with expectations of fewer rate cuts next year than previously priced in. Markets are expecting rates to stay higher for longer globally. The Fed is still likely to pause at their next meeting…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/3ZfV11n

Weaker US payrolls and unemployment suggest rates have peaked; EUR Inflation remains higher, ECB pause expected; UK Pill sees restrictive rates for some time

06/09/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 06/09/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time 💷
The outlook for UK interest rates remains in focus, with expectations growing that we are reaching a peak. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, speaking in Cape Town, suggested that he would like to see a Table Mountain profile…

🇪🇺 EUR – Inflation remains higher but ECB still expected to pause 💶
Last week, we saw headline inflation stay at 5.3% in August. Markets were expecting a fall and this may give the ECB further concerns about pausing at the next meeting. Underlying, core inflation did fall slightly…

🇺🇸 USD - Weaker payrolls and higher unemployment suggest rates have peaked 💵
Over the last week, Treasury yields have fallen significantly in the past week. Weaker data has led markets to expect larger Fed rate cuts next year. The latest JOLTS job openings data gave further evidence that labour demand is cooling…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/3LekGSh

Weaker US payrolls and unemployment suggest rates have peaked; EUR Inflation remains higher, ECB pause expected; UK Pill sees restrictive rates for some time

29/08/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 29/08/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy 💷
The focus across markets continues to be whether the global economy can avoid a serious downturn and achieve a soft(ish) landing. Following on from this, interest rates continue to be the number one issue…

🇪🇺 EUR – Inflation figures are expected to show a slight fall alongside weaker economy 💶
The weaker data across the Eurozone has led to a fall in interest rate expectations. Last week, we saw weak PMI data from the Eurozone, mirroring that seen in the UK…

🇺🇸 USD - Non-farm payrolls expected to keep pressure on Fed 💵
The focus in the US has been similar with questions over how long the Fed will pause on rates and how soon and how quickly they will cut rates. Longer-term US Treasuries have seen the biggest moves, with yields initially rising, but then dropping back to the lowest for a couple of weeks with weaker data…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/45PBS8u

US Non-farm payrolls expected to keep pressure on Fed; EUR Inflation figures expected to show slight fall; UK focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy

18/07/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 18/07/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Inflation to fall overall though Core to rise further 💷
The June CPI report will be closely watched this week. It is expected to show inflation falling to 8.3%. This would be a welcome fall from 8.7% in May, mainly due to a fall in energy prices…

🇪🇺 EUR – Central bank speakers ahead of weakening economic data 💶
It is a relatively quiet week in Europe, though there are several European Central Bank policymakers scheduled to speak…

🇺🇸 USD - Lower inflation suggests fewer rate hikes 💵
Last week, we saw an increase in optimism in the US with lower inflation than expected. This provided a boost on the basis that interest rates may be close to a peak…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/3DjVWUs

Lower US inflation suggests fewer Fed rate hikes; ECB speakers ahead of weakening economic data; UK Inflation to fall overall though Core to rise further

11/07/2023

📈 Weekly Market Report 11/07/23 📉

🇬🇧 GBP – Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks 💷
The labour market data today was an important update on inflationary pressures. Regular pay growth rose by more than expected at 7.3% in the three months to May. Employment growth fell and unemployment rose from 3.8% to 4%…

🇪🇺 EUR – ECB minutes may give hints on further tightening 💶
This week, the German ZEW survey will give an indication of economic trends in July. Eurozone industrial production for May is expected to show that the factory sector is still struggling…

🇺🇸 USD - Core inflation to remain above 5% as CPI falls below 4% 💵
The release of hawkish minutes for the US Federal Reserve policy meeting raised concerns over further rate hikes. Last month’s pause in rate hikes is likely to be very short, with a hike now expected in July…

For full report and rates, click: https://bit.ly/3pM7P2f

Core inflation to remain above 5% as CPI falls below 4%; ECB minutes may give hints on further tightening; Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks