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(Delayed) PCE Day Written By Dominic WoodhouseGBPSterling moved up overnight but opened softer this morning as domestic ...
05/12/2025

(Delayed) PCE Day
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
Sterling moved up overnight but opened softer this morning as domestic data highlight a two‑speed UK economy, house prices are grinding higher while corporates accelerate job cuts. The Halifax index shows prices up 1.9% YoY in October with the average home at a record £299,862. At the same time, a BoE‑linked survey reports employment falling at the fastest pace since 2021 and construction in a steep downturn, reinforcing downside risks to growth and consistent wage pressure. Politically, the FCA has ruled out a market‑abuse probe into Chancellor Rachel Reeves over pre‑Budget briefings, removing a potential overhang but not the broader uncertainty. Near term, softer domestic momentum and global risk appetite argue for GBP underperformance but so far, sterling has remained somewhat resilient heading into the December rate decision.

EUR
The euro starts the session supported by a better tone in core data and falling USD hedging costs for eurozone investors. German factory orders finally broke a four‑month losing streak, rising 1.1% m/m in September on strength in electrical equipment, transport and autos. Eurostat’s latest estimate has Q3 euro‑area GDP up 0.2% q/q and 1.4% y/y, with today’s final release expected to confirm that modest expansion while markets watch the breakdown in consumption and wages. The eurozone calendar focuses on French and Spanish industrial production and the final GDP print, alongside speeches from ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, where any emphasis on wage disinflation would be seen as mildly EUR‑supportive. With US hedging costs falling and the dollar softer, dips in EUR/USD toward recent support are likely to attract buy‑side interest.​

USD
The dollar is consolidating near recent lows, with the DXY around 98.8 and down roughly 1.4% over the past month and about 6.5% over 12 months, as markets lean into a dovish Fed narrative and year‑end seasonal dollar weakness. Expectations of a cut at next week’s meeting keep the dollar offered, with focus today on delayed September core PCE, personal income/spending and the University of Michigan sentiment survey, none of which are expected to be major standalone movers. Looking ahead, the key risk is a shift lower in interest rates if inflation expectations start to firm under a more dovish Fed chair, which would reinforce a structural bear trend in the dollar going into 2026.

Dollar dip on Hassett pickWritten by Dominic Woodhouse  GBPSterling strengthened yesterday and slightly overnight as the...
04/12/2025

Dollar dip on Hassett pick
Written by Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
Sterling strengthened yesterday and slightly overnight as the latest UK business survey and Kevin Hassett likely Fed appointment triggered a sharp unwinding of negative bets against the pound, reflecting improved sentiment among UK corporates and investors. Market focus remains on the Bank of England’s upcoming meeting, with expectations for a cautious approach amid persistent inflation pressures. No major UK data is scheduled today, but sentiment remains supported by the broader risk-on tone and a weaker dollar. The pound’s gains are also underpinned by reduced concerns over political uncertainty following recent government stability. GBP/USD is trading near multi-week highs, with the pair likely to remain well bid unless risk sentiment shifts or US data surprises to the upside.

EUR
The euro continues to benefit from negative dollar sentiment, with EUR/USD approaching 1.17. Today’s focus is on eurozone retail sales for October, but the main driver remains the broad USD weakness and the ongoing Fed cut pricing. ECB speakers are scheduled throughout the day, but no major policy signals are expected. Spain and France will hold their final bond auctions for the year, with Spain selling up to €4.25bn and France up to €5.5bn, but market impact is likely limited. The eurozone peace talks remain inconclusive, but the cautious optimism could still provide upside if progress is made before Christmas.

USD
The dollar is struggling to recover as December’s negative seasonality aligns with soft US data. Yesterday’s ADP payrolls showed a 32k drop, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week, with 25bp priced in. The dollar’s decline is being tempered by stabilising risk sentiment, but the bias looks to remain bearish. Today’s key release is weekly jobless claims, but the market’s attention is fixed on next week’s Fed decision. Unless tomorrow’s PCE inflation spikes, Fed pricing is unlikely to shift. Markets see a possibility of two more cuts early next year, keeping the dollar under pressure even into Q1 2026.

🇪🇺 EUR - Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) – 10:00 AM
Actual: | Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%​
🇪🇺 EUR - Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) – 10:00 AM
Actual: | Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 1.0%​
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB's Cipollone speech – 1:00 PM
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB's Lane speech – 3:00 PM
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB's De Guindos speech – 6:00 PM
🇺🇸 USD - Challenger Job Cuts (Nov) – 12:30 PM
Actual: 153.074K | Forecast: - | Previous: 54.064K​
🇺🇸 USD - Initial Jobless Claims – 1:30 PM
Actual: 216K | Forecast: 220K | Previous: 222K​
🇺🇸 USD - Fed's Bowman speech – 5:00 PM

ReformativesWritten By Dominic Woodhouse  GBPSterling is currently trading between 1.32 1.3250 on GBP/USD and 1.1350 and...
03/12/2025

Reformatives
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
Sterling is currently trading between 1.32 1.3250 on GBP/USD and 1.1350 and 1.14 on GBPEUR. Post-Budget relief has faded, with tax rises removing some fiscal risk. GBP/EUR rally stalled on a eurozone inflation beat, reflecting UK growth concerns and BOE path. Markets fully price a 25bp cut in December, another by April 2026, with a terminal rate near 3.5%. Limited near-term upside unless demand strengthens. Political risk remains, with Farage suggesting a Reform-Conservative deal, though both deny it, but this may have larger implications of taking a larger share of the vote over the next few years should a deal be done. Local elections in May 2026 are next milestone; fiscal responsibility or leadership instability could weigh on sterling.​

EUR
Euro gains early, EUR/USD trading between 1.1630 1.1650, supported by Hassett-driven dollar weakness and firmer eurozone inflation. Headline inflation rose to 2.2%, core steady at 2.4%, reinforcing ECB hold at 2% for December. Services inflation edged up to 3.5%. Softer energy prices improve eurozone terms of trade, aiding the euro. ECB President Lagarde speaks today, a neutral tone could keep EUR/USD range-bound, hawkishness may extend rally. The euro could continue recent strength if US data disappoints, with a year-end target of above 1.17 in sight.​

USD
A softer dollar to start the morning, as Kevin Hassett’s odds rise to 85% for Fed chair. A known dove gives concerns for greenback strength, reinforcing the “Hassett trade.” Two key US data points are due today: ADP payrolls (consensus +10k), ISM Services (consensus 52.0). Soft prints would reinforce cut expectations, especially if DXY breaks 99.00 with the USD vulnerable to further downside if Hassett narrative solidifies. Focus on next week’s FOMC meeting, where a 25bp cut is expected. Path beyond depends on data and clarity on new chair’s stance.

🇪🇺 EUR - Producer Price Index MoM (Oct) – 10:00 GMT
Actual: - | Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
🇺🇸 USD - ADP Employment Change (Nov) – 13:15 GMT
Actual: - | Forecast: 5K | Previous: 42K
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB President Lagarde speech – 13:30 GMT
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production MoM (Sep) – 14:15 GMT
Actual: - | Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 USD - S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) – 14:45 GMT
Actual: - | Forecast: 54.8 | Previous: 54.8
🇺🇸 USD - ISM Services PMI (Nov) – 15:00 GMT
Actual: - | Forecast: 52.1 | Previous: 52.4
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB President Lagarde speech – 15:30 GMT
Status: Locked
🇬🇧 GBP - BoE’s Mann speech – 17:00 GMT

Deficit DeceitWritten by Dominic Woodhouse  GBPRachel Reeves has been accused of misleading the public about the UK's fi...
01/12/2025

Deficit Deceit
Written by Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
Rachel Reeves has been accused of misleading the public about the UK's fiscal situation ahead of her 2025 budget, with critics claiming she exaggerated the deficit to justify tax increases and welfare changes. Reeves denies lying, stating she was transparent about the economic challenges. GBP/USD has stayed steady near 1.32, supported by the UK’s autumn budget relief and expectations of a December rate cut from both central banks. Standard Chartered forecasts the pair could strengthen to 1.34 if the Fed’s cut materialises, citing improved fiscal credibility and softer US data. However, the BoE faces pressure to ease policy as inflation slows to 3.8% and household demand weakens, with a 70% chance of a December cut priced in.

EUR
EUR/USD trades near 1.16, with eurozone inflation data this week expected to show headline CPI at 2.1% and core CPI at 2.4% for November. German inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%. This may support ECB arguments against further rate cuts. The euro’s performance is sensitive to energy prices and ongoing Ukraine negotiations. Any progress could lift the euro and European currencies. The expected December US rate cut could also see the euro sustain a move above 1.15 vs USD.

USD
The US dollar remains vulnerable this week as markets price in an 85–87% chance of a December Fed rate cut, with expectations for a 25bp reduction to 3.50%-3.75%. Soft data, including mixed ISM surveys and weak ADP payrolls, are supporting dovish bets, while the dollar hasn’t fully absorbed the recent repricing. Hawkish signals would be needed to lift the greenback, but those are unlikely this week given the data mix. President Trump’s potential announcement of a dovish Fed Chair could add further downside risk to the USD, with the DXY index under pressure from cross-currency

Thanksgiving Lull In PlayWritten by Dominic Woodhouse GBPGBP is modestly softer as markets weigh a looser UK fiscal stan...
28/11/2025

Thanksgiving Lull In Play
Written by Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
GBP is modestly softer as markets weigh a looser UK fiscal stance against weaker growth signals. The Treasury’s plan to lean more on short‑term debt points to a larger and more front‑loaded gilt supply, keeping the long end under pressure and limiting sterling upside on any risk‑on move. At the same time, the OBR’s warning that business investment will fall for the first time since Covid reinforces a stagnant growth narrative and leaves BoE cuts in 2026 well priced. In thin post‑Thanksgiving liquidity, GBP should stay rangebound.

EUR
EUR is underpinned by softer French inflation and a gradual improvement in eurozone sentiment, even as growth remains subdued. France’s HICP slowed to around 0.9% in October, highlighting weak energy and goods prices and supporting the case that underlying inflation is easing. Germany’s retail sales finally posted a 0.2% m/m rise after months of weakness, but the annual rate is barely positive. The ECB minutes keep rates on hold but clearly leave the door open for cuts if inflation undershoots the 2% target for 2026‑27, which markets read as slightly dovish. Into year‑end, a cautious risk‑on tone and any progress on Ukraine peace talks should favour EUR over USD and GBP.

USD
USD remains trapped in tight ranges after the Thanksgiving lull. Markets continue to price meaningful odds of a December Fed cut, and discussion of more dovish candidates to replace the current Chair keeps pressure on the USD. The main near‑term swing factor is likely from geopolitics. Any progression in Russia‑Ukraine peace talks will tilt the balance towards mild dollar weakness and support for risk on currencies. With US data light today and liquidity thin, volatility should stay contained unless there are headline‑driven shocks from the peace process.

🇪🇺 EUR - German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) – 07:00 GMT
Actual: -0.3% | Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
🇪🇺 EUR - French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct) – 07:45 GMT
Actual: 0.4% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🇪🇺 EUR - French CPI (MoM) (Nov) – 07:45 GMT
Actual: -0.1% | Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
🇪🇺 EUR - French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) – 07:45 GMT
Actual: 0.5% | Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.3%
🇪🇺 EUR - French HICP (MoM) (Nov) – 07:45 GMT
Actual: -0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 0.1%
🇪🇺 EUR - Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) – 08:00 GMT
Actual: 3.1% | Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 3.2%
🇪🇺 EUR - German Unemployment Rate (Nov) – 08:21 GMT
Actual: N/A | Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
🇪🇺 EUR - German CPI (YoY) (Nov) – 13:00 GMT
Actual: N/A | Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.3%
🇺🇸 USD - Fed's Balance Sheet – 21:30 GMT
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: N/A

UK Autumn Budget 2025: Key TakeawaysWritten By Dominic Woodhouse  Fiscal Credibility Restored (For Now)The UK’s Autumn B...
27/11/2025

UK Autumn Budget 2025: Key Takeaways
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

Fiscal Credibility Restored (For Now)
The UK’s Autumn Budget 2025 has improved fiscal optics, expanding headroom to £22bn by 2029 (from £9bn previously). Markets welcomed the enhanced discipline and sterling firmed as investors viewed the measures as credible.

Backloaded Tightening Raises Long-Term Risks
Tax hikes worth £26bn annually by 2029/30 (0.75% of GDP) are delayed, with little impact in 2026. The freeze on income tax thresholds until 2028 and new property and pension taxes boost revenue but postpone the real adjustment, posing political and delivery risks ahead of elections.

Spending Discipline and DMO Relief
Public borrowing is set to fall from 4.5% to 3.5% next year. Departmental spending growth slows to 1.8%, and the Debt Management Office expects lower gilt issuance in 2026 which is positive for fixed-income sentiment.

Monetary Policy and Market Outlook
For the Bank of England, the budget does little to alter the trajectory for rate cuts. Markets still price in a December cut and three further easing moves through 2026, supported by lower inflation and energy costs but dampened by poor growth prospects.

Sterling Reaction and Outlook
GBP initially dipped after the early leak but rebounded post-announcement on fiscal reassurance. GBP/USD trades near 1.32 and GBP/EUR around 1.14, reflecting modest gains. Still, future performance faces headwinds from fiscal tightening and rate-cut expectations. GBPEUR looks likely to hold under 1.15 for the short term, while GBP/USD will struggle to go above 1.33.

Special Autumn Budget ReportWritten By Dominic Woodhouse  Sterling Faces Autumn Budget PressureSterling enters the Autum...
26/11/2025

Special Autumn Budget Report
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

Sterling Faces Autumn Budget Pressure
Sterling enters the Autumn Budget under pressure, with markets bracing for fiscal tightening likely to weigh on GBP. Risks around Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech, OBR forecasts, and political reactions point to a downside bias, as shown by institutional level hedging against a sterling drop, as reported by the FT.

Fiscal Hole and Policy Response
The OBR’s downgraded growth outlook leaves a £20–30bn fiscal hole, to be filled mainly by extending income tax threshold freezes and smaller tax hikes, not headline rate increases. This “stealth” tax approach hits different groups unevenly, with the key concern being how much tightening is front-loaded versus delayed. More back-loading could undermine fiscal credibility, pushing gilt yields higher and GBP lower.​

VAT, Inflation, and Consumer Impact
Reeves is not cutting VAT on energy bills, keeping revenue steady but sustaining consumer pressure. Headline inflation eased to 3.6%, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut. Front-loaded tax hikes could boost dovish bets, lowering gilt yields, weakening sterling’s appeal.

Gilt Markets and Political Risks
Gilt markets remain sensitive. Confirming £10–15bn in upfront tax hikes is seen as disinflationary by the OBR, creating more headroom than she previously adjusted for will ease gilt markets somewhat. Political risks linger, as many are expecting this budget to be the chancellors last. Any softening or speculation of a borrowing-friendly successor could trigger gilt and GBP sell-offs.​

Currency Outlook and Scenarios
Sterling trades near $1.31 and 1.14 on the euro. Volatility is elevated but below 2022 mini-budget crisis highs. The baseline case is any disinflationary fiscal tightening will create a dovish BOE and modestly weaken GBP. Doubts over fiscal sustainability could spark sharp gilt and GBP sell-offs. Upside: credible front-loaded consolidation (tax hikes or spending cuts implemented early, rather than being spread out or delayed to later years) could ease a market fears, but GBP strength is likely tactical.​

OBR Watch and Market Reaction
Watch the OBR. Last year, gilts rallied during the speech but sold off on inflationary forecasts. Today’s event offers more downside than upside for sterling, supporting a moderately negative GBP outlook into year-end.

GBP Hedging SpikesWritten by Dominic Woodhouse  GBPSterling remains under pressure as traders load up on downside protec...
25/11/2025

GBP Hedging Spikes
Written by Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
Sterling remains under pressure as traders load up on downside protection ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget. The FT has reported that sterling puts are outpacing calls more than four-to-one (showing a hedge against a sterling fall) and GBPEUR volume elevated near Liz Truss’ mini‑Budget extremes. Markets fear tax‑raising measures could weigh on already soft growth and pull forward BoE cuts, leaving GBP vulnerable. A credible pro‑growth, investment‑friendly Budget could trigger a short squeeze, but that may create political instability and what seems an inevitable leadership battle.

EUR
The euro stays capped by Germany’s entrenched stagnation story, Q3 GDP was flat and only grew 0.3% YoY, with net exports dragging while public spending and investment provided modest support. Over the last three years Germany has managed only two positive quarters, and fiscal stimulus looks too slow to meaningfully lift 2025 activity. Ukraine peace headlines have yet to deliver a sustained EUR bid, but further success in this area may see the euro benefit.

USD
The dollar is trading stronger than expected despite a Federal Reserve cut in December a likely scenario. This outlook is supported by dovish comments from FOMC members. Retail sales are expected to remain strong, and the Producer Price Index is forecasted to show steady inflation around 0.3% month-over-month, which should prevent any immediate shifts in dollar value. Geopolitical factors, including Ukraine peace negotiations and tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan, continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Unless data otherwise dictates, the USD may see weakness heading into the Christmas season as a December cut and further 2026 cuts are collectively priced in.

🇪🇺 EUR - German GDP YoY (Q3) – 07:00 GMT
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🇪🇺 EUR - German GDP QoQ (Q3) – 07:00 GMT
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.2%
🇺🇸 USD - Core Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.3%
🇺🇸 USD - PPI MoM (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
🇺🇸 USD - Retail Sales MoM (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4%
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production MoM (Oct) – 14:15 GMT
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production YoY (Sep) – 14:15 GMT
Forecast: 0.87% | Previous: -
🇺🇸 USD - CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) – 15:00 GMT
Forecast: - | Previous: 93.5

Treasury Tap On Full GBPSterling remains weighed down after the UK government’s public sector net borrowing came in at £...
21/11/2025

Treasury Tap On Full

GBP
Sterling remains weighed down after the UK government’s public sector net borrowing came in at £17.4bn for October, notably above consensus. This raises concerns about fiscal headroom and future government spending in a fragile economic environment. While gilt yields moved slightly higher, the lack of imminent data catalysts or scheduled Bank of England speakers may limit further GBP volatility today. GBP/USD is likely to track broader risk sentiment or remain in a wider range as we build up to next week’s budget. Market participants remain attentive to updates on UK fiscal and economic projections.

EUR
The euro is holding firm near recent highs as the focus turns to today’s flash PMIs and the latest business confidence data out of France, which shows stability but little real pickup. Eurozone businesses have demonstrated resilience, with ongoing adaptation to new trade dynamics helping support activity. Attention will also be on the ECB’s wage survey (expected at 2.45% Q on Q) and President Lagarde’s speech, with a possible nod to euro internationalisation.

USD
Mixed signals from the US September jobs report, 119k jobs added vs consensus of 51k, but with unemployment rising to 4.4% and only moderate wage growth, have left the Federal Reserve sustaining a hawkish stance. Markets now see less chance of a December rate cut, with most pricing action pushing expected easing to early 2026. Despite the solid jobs headline, softening US dollar momentum and a pullback in equities suggest investor positioning is more evenly balanced. The USD may continue it’s recent bullish run as rate cuts, for this year at least, seem off the table.

20/11/2025

‘The Fog Lifts: US Economic Data Returns’
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
The British Pound remains under pressure as markets price in a softer Bank of England path, following weaker demand indicators and cooling inflation data. Money markets now assign an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the BoE’s December meeting, pushing gilt yields lower. GBP/USD declined sharply to below 1.3100, struggling for a rebound in early Thursday trading. The pound’s underperformance is largely driven by expectations of BoE dovishness, budget fears and inflation instability.

EUR
The euro continues to weaken versus the US dollar, closing near the bottom of its recent trading range. The ECB maintained rates unchanged at 2.00% in October. While European fundamentals remain supportive, including improved PMI and business sentiment, the euro’s decline is mainly a reflection of US dollar strength. Market focus now shifts to the delayed US payrolls data, with the euro likely to remain under pressure until clearer signals emerge from US labour market releases.​

USD
The US dollar has held its ground, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s October minutes which signalled a policy hold through year-end and a reluctance to cut rates in December. The USD has traded strongly amid the “data fog” ahead of the delayed September payrolls report, with markets expecting a conservative estimate due to recent data results and new BLS leadership. The Treasury market is pricing in a weak jobs print, but any sign of resilience could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and support the dollar. With payrolls delayed until after the December FOMC, the Fed has room to skip a rate cut, further supporting USD strength in the near term.

🇺🇸 USD - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🇺🇸 USD - Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.7%
🇺🇸 USD - Continuing Jobless Claims – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: — | Previous: —
🇺🇸 USD - Initial Jobless Claims – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: — | Previous: 232K
🇺🇸 USD - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Actual: 53K | Forecast: 22K | Previous: —
🇺🇸 USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: -12.8 | Previous: 1.0
🇺🇸 USD - Unemployment Rate (Sep) – 13:30 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) – 14:15 GMT
Actual: | Forecast: — | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 USD - Existing Home Sales (Oct) – 15:00 GMT

UK inflation ‘bites’ againWritten By Dominic Woodhouse  GBPUK CPI data came in mildly sterling supportive this morning. ...
19/11/2025

UK inflation ‘bites’ again
Written By Dominic Woodhouse

GBP
UK CPI data came in mildly sterling supportive this morning. Data showed headline CPI fell to 3.6% in October, slightly above consensus due to a rebound in food prices to 4.9%. This could be seen as somewhat hawkish for the Bank of England, as food inflation remains a key concern for policymakers. However, most analysts doubt the data will shift the BoE’s stance, with a 25bp rate cut still priced for December. The proximity of next week’s Budget may also limit sterling’s upside, keeping the currency fragile ahead of the fiscal announcement.

EUR
The euro has been steady despite recent lack of euro drivers. Today’s inflation is expected to slow to 2.1% for October, broadly in line with preliminary data, which should limit immediate EUR volatility and keep rates movements at the back of policy makers minds. There is optimism, based a lot on weak US incoming data that EURUSD may see a year-end rally. However, a break below 1.1560 could trigger short term sell off. The calendar is otherwise quiet today, with no major ECB speakers, so the euro is likely to trade in narrow ranges until more data or commentary emerges.

USD
With most eyes on tomorrows delayed employment figures, many will also be looking at tonight’s FOMC minutes which may show divergent views on policy, potentially supporting the dollar, but tomorrow’s delayed US jobs report will be key for December Fed cut expectations. Should data disappoint, pressure may build on US equities, and the dollar could see renewed downside. Big end to the week to come for the USD.

🇬🇧 GBP - CPI (YoY) (Oct) – 07:00 GMT
Actual: 3.6% | Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.8%​
🇬🇧 GBP - CPI (MoM) (Oct) – 07:00 GMT
Actual: 0.4% | Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.0%​
🇪🇺 EUR - Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) – 10:00 GMT
Actual: 2.4% | Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: N/A
🇪🇺 EUR - CPI (YoY) (Oct) – 10:00 GMT
Actual: 2.1% | Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.2%
🇪🇺 EUR - CPI (MoM) (Oct) – 10:00 GMT
Actual: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) – 14:15 GMT
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 0.87%
🇺🇸 USD - Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) – 14:15 GMT
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes – 19:00 GMT

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