Market Musings

03/11/2023

US fiscal policy is extremely loose and the most misaligned with underlying economic dynamics since 1980....

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17/10/2023

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Newsletter on global macro and market strategy. Equities, rates, FX, commodities. Click to read Market Musings, by Vasileios Gkionakis, a Substack publication. Launched 3 days ago.

17/10/2023

UK labour market data were soft and give the first clear sign the economy is heading to a recession. The market has responded accordingly, but there is more to come...

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UK labour market data were soft and give the first clear sign the economy is heading to a recession. The market has responded accordingly, but there is more to come...

16/10/2023

The market still underestimates the 2024 BoE cutting cycle: here is how to play it...

Summary It is a big week for UK data: monthly fluctuations are hard to predict but, overall, the releases will likely confirm further labour market loosening and falling inflation. The BoE has re-priced lower, but this could go further: the UK economy is in dire straits, and the central bank will li...

16/10/2023

September US CPI data do not leave too much room for comfort; but they wont force the Fed to hike again! Here is why...

Thanks for reading Market Musings! Subscribe for free to receive new posts. Thursday’s release of US inflation data (Sep) showed headline CPI rising by 3.7% YoY (0.4% MoM) and core CPI by 4.1% YoY (0.3% MoM); the latter was in line with consensus while the former came slightly higher than expected...