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Trade Market Cup, Tower 42 25 Old Broad Street, London (2026)

19/07/2023

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18/07/2023

EARNINGS WAVE, NOVARTIS GUIDANCE, ARK's TWITTER STAKE - WHAT'S MOVING MARKETS
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Investors look ahead to a busy week of earnings, including quarterly results from some of the largest U.S. banks. Meanwhile, drug-making giant Novartis improves its guidance as it eyes a spin-off of its Sandoz generics division later this year, and Cathie Wood says her ARK investment management firm has written down its stake in Twitter.

1. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley on deck

Corporate earnings Tuesday will include a fresh batch of U.S. banks, with investors keen to see how they have fared since the turmoil in regional lenders hit the financial services sector earlier this year.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are set to report their latest results before the start of U.S. trading, as well as smaller players Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC).

Last week, higher interest rates helped underpin improved targets for net interest income – the difference between what a bank makes from loans and pays for deposits – at larger peers JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C). Second quarter net income also jumped at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, although a dearth of dealmaking weighed on profit at Citigroup.

2. U.S. futures mixed

U.S. stock futures were largely mixed on Tuesday as traders awaited the next round of earnings.

At 04:45 ET (08:45 GMT), the Dow futures contract gained 22 points or 0.06%, S&P 500 futures edged up by 1 point or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 6 points or 0.04%.

The main indices closed in the green in the prior session, boosted in part by a stronger-than-anticipated reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's manufacturing index that hinted at resilient business activity in the face of elevated borrowing costs.

Coupled with last week's June inflation reading that was slower than expected and a jump in preliminary consumer sentiment for July, the manufacturing survey bolstered hopes for continued strength in the broader U.S. economy.

3. Novartis lifts profit guidance, lays out timeline for Sandoz spin-off

Novartis raised its profit and revenue outlook for 2023 following solid second quarter sales, while the Swiss drugmaker also proposed a timeline for the spin-off of its Sandoz generic medicines unit.

Sales increased by 7% to $13.7 billion at constant currencies, which chief executive Vas Narasimhan said was linked to strong performance across "core therapeutic areas and key geographies." As a result, the company said it now estimates that annual group sales will grow in the high single digit, an improvement from the prior guidance of mid-single-digit. Yearly group core operating income expansion is now seen in the low double digits, up from the high-single-digit previously.

Meanwhile, Novartis said its shareholders will vote on the planned Sandoz spin-off at an extraordinary general meeting in September. If approved, a listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange, as well as an American Depositary Receipt program in the U.S., could come as soon as early in the fourth quarter.

Shares in Novartis (SIX:NOVN) rose in early trading in Switzerland on Monday, while Novartis ADRs (NYSE:NVS) in the U.S. also ticked higher in premarket dealmaking.

4. Wood's ARK writes down Twitter stake - WSJ

Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management has written down its stake in Twitter by 47% since Elon Musk bought the social media platform and took it private last year, Wood told the Wall Street Journal.

In an interview with the paper, Wood noted that the write-down reflects how ARK, which owns a small stake in Twitter through its venture fund, takes fair valuation "very seriously." But she remained upbeat about the prospects for Twitter, saying she would "love" to snap up more shares at the new value.

In particular, Wood said she still thinks Musk is "serious" about his plan to turn Twitter into a so-called "everything app" that features a wide range of services like messaging, e-commerce shopping, and peer-to-peer payments.

Wood's comments come as Twitter faces a large debt pile and dwindling advertising revenues, while Musk himself said over the weekend that the company is now cash-flow negative.

At the same time, Twitter must contend with fresh competition from Meta's (NASDAQ:META) own short-text messaging platform Threads. Wood, however, argued that this rivalry could light a competitive "fire" under Twitter.

5. Oil steadies as U.S. inventory data looms

Crude prices edged up on Tuesday, with the focus turning from concerns over economic weakness in top oil importer China towards a potential tightening of U.S. crude supplies.

Traders are awaiting new figures from the American Petroleum Institute later in the session, as well as numbers from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The data is expected to show a decline in stockpiles after a substantially bigger-than-anticipated build in the prior week.

But sentiment is still dampened by statistics on Monday that showed underwhelming growth in China in the second quarter. Investors are now trying to gauge if Beijing will roll out further stimulus measures in an attempt to refuel the country's sputtering post-pandemic recovery.

By 08:45 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 0.31% higher at $74.31 a barrel, while the Brent contract added 0.15% to $78.62 per barrel.

14/07/2023

A trading plan is a much better BOSS than your emotions and ego!
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12/07/2023

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11/07/2023

OIL EDGES UP ON SUPPLY CUTS, DEMAND HOPES
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-Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday supported by supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters and continued hopes for higher demand in the developing world in the second half of 2023.

Brent crude futures were up 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $78.15 a barrel by 0802 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 48 cents, or 0.7%, at $73.47.

Supply cuts by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia set for August helped to lift the benchmark prices, which were also supported as the U.S. dollar fell to a two-month low.

A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies and often boosts oil demand.

"Oil has found a floor and the only thing ... that could break that is if U.S. inflation is scorching hot and the Fed is forced to tighten this economy into a recession," said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA.

While central bank officials said the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates further to tame persistent inflation, markets are somewhat pacified by indications that the months of monetary policy tightening are nearing an end.

"Nevertheless, nerves are not completely calmed just yet. Anxiety is still palpable that recession fears could lead to downgrades in oil demand," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Still, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is standing firm with the expectation that oil demand from China and developing countries, combined with recently announced supply cuts, is likely to keep the market tight in the second half of the year despite a sluggish global economy, its head said on Monday.

China's decision to boost support for its real estate sector bolstered the hope for an uptick in demand there, analysts said.

06/07/2023

4 BIG ANALYST PICKS: RIVIAN UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL, STOCK GAINS ON POSITIVE HEADLINES
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Here is your Pro Recap of the biggest analyst picks you may have missed since yesterday: upgrades at Rivian Automotive, Advanced Micro Devices, Transocean, and Simon Property Group.

InvestingPro subscribers got this news first. Never miss another market-moving headline.

Rivian Automotive upgraded at DA Davidson
DA Davidson upgraded Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) to Neutral from Underperform and raised its price target to $18.00 from $11.00 given a series of positive news surrounding the company.

Shares gained more than 22% this week due to several positive catalysts, including better-than-expected Q2 deliveries, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) deploying its first vans in Europe made by Rivian, marking its first commercial shipments outside the U.S., as well as DA Davidson upgrade.

DA Davidson analysts noted that the arrival of Rivian's delivery van in Europe, which they had anticipated happening eventually, occurred much earlier than their initial expectations.
Advanced Micro Devices upgraded to Outperform
Northland Capital Markets upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) to Outperform from Market Perform with the price target of $150, acknowledging they have been wrong on the stock.

Despite a delayed upgrade, the firm anticipates AMD shares to receive an AI multiple and estimates a ramp of GPU revenue from the MI 300 and El Capitan supercomputer in the second half of the year.

According to the firm, AMD's open-source software approach and broad AI IP portfolio, encompassing GPUs, CPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs, could erode NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) software moat and enable AMD to cater to diverse AI workloads.

2 more upgrades
Transocean (NYSE:RIG) shares surged more than 5% yesterday after Citi upgraded the company to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $9.50 from $6.50, as reported in real time on InvestingPro.

Wolfe Research upgraded Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) to Outperform from Peerperform with a price target of $127.00. Shares are up nearly 1% pre-market today.

03/07/2023

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29/06/2023

ALLOWVIR GAINS AS GILEAD ADDS TO STAKE
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AlloVir, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALVR) gained 11% in pre-open trading Thursday after Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) disclosed it bought another 2,930,870 common shares in the company's recent public offering at $3.75 per share.

The value of the purchase was nearly $11 million. Gilead owns a total of 16,635,286 common shares following the purchase, representing a nearly 15% stake.

On June 21, AlloVir announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $3.75 per share. All shares were sold by the company.

26/06/2023

OIL MARKETS SHRUG OFF RUSSIAN POLITICAL TURMOIL
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Oil prices firmed slightly on Monday, with political instability from an aborted revolt by Russian mercenaries over the weekend viewed by the market as not posing an immediate threat to oil supply from one of the world's largest producers.

Brent crude futures were up 38 cents, or 0.5%, at $74.23 a barrel by 1040 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.44. Both benchmarks gained as much as 1.3% in early Asian trade.

A clash between Moscow and Russian mercenary group Wagner was averted on Saturday after the heavily armed mercenaries withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance on the capital.

However, the challenge has raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power and some concern about possible disruption of Russian oil supply.

"Crude futures opened about $1 a barrel higher on Monday in a knee-jerk reaction to an aborted rebellion by the mercenary Wagner group in Russia," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights.

"But (prices) quickly began to surrender the gains as a calmer analysis indicated the situation in the country was stable for the time being and posed no threat to its oil and gas supplies."

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said markets could price in a moderately higher probability of domestic volatility in Russia leading to supply disruptions, adding that the impact could be limited because spot fundamentals have not changed.

The number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by U.S. energy companies - an early indicator of future output - fell for an eighth week in a row for the first time since July 2020, a closely followed report showed on Friday.

Both Brent and WTI prices fell by about 3.6% last week on worries that further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve could sap oil demand at a time when China's economic recovery has also disappointed investors.

"China's economic growth has been a nightmare for commodity markets, particularly in oil and industrial metals," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said in a note.

23/06/2023

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23/06/2023

US Supreme Court rules in favor of Coinbase in arbitration dispute
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- The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday backed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Global Inc's bid to halt customer lawsuits while it pursues appeals aimed at moving the disputes out of courts and into private arbitration, which businesses often prefer over litigation.

The justices, in a 5-4 decision, overturned a lower court's ruling involving a user who sued after a scammer stole money from his account. The lower court had let a proposed class action lawsuit proceed while Coinbase pressed its appeal contending that the claims belong in arbitration. The justices dismissed a second case that Coinbase had asked it to review.

Companies generally prefer to arbitrate claims because the process is cheaper and faster than litigation in court, which can be harder to fight and carries a greater risk of hefty damages awards.

Coinbase's exchange allows users to transact in digital currencies such as bitcoin and ether. The company asserts that its user agreement requires disputes to be resolved through arbitration and that under a law called the Federal Arbitration Act, which governs dispute resolution proceedings through arbitration, action in trial courts must come to a halt when a denial of a request to compel arbitration is appealed.

Conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh, joined by four fellow conservatives, wrote the ruling.

Kavanaugh cautioned about the risk of allowing trial courts to proceed while the arbitration question plays out on appeal, saying such a scenario could cause the benefits of arbitration such as efficiency and cost savings to be "irretrievably lost - even if the court of appeals later concluded that the case actually had belonged in arbitration all along."

The court's three liberal justices and conservative Justice Clarence Thomas dissented.

Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in the dissenting opinion said the ruling invented a new rule "perpetually favoring" the party seeking arbitration.

"Now, any defendant that devises a non-frivolous argument for arbitration can not only appeal, but also press pause on the case - leaving plaintiffs to suffer harm, lose evidence and bleed dry their patience and funding in the meantime," Jackson wrote.

Katherine Minarik, Coinbase's vice president for litigation, welcomed the ruling.

Minarik said the decision "recognizes that companies like Coinbase, as well as our customers, bear significant burdens when cases that belong in an arbitration process instead proceed in lengthy and expensive court proceedings. It makes sense that lower court litigation should be paused while an appellate court decides whether a case belongs in court at all."

One of the cases involved a California lawsuit by customer Abraham Bielski, who alleged that a scammer stole more than $30,000 from his Coinbase account in 2021. The suit accused the company of violating the Electronic Funds Transfer Act by not investigating or recrediting Bielski's account.

In the other suit that the court dismissed on Friday, former users accused the company of violating California's false advertising law by duping them into paying to participate in a 2021 sweepstakes that offered prizes in dogecoin, a type of cryptocurrency.

In both cases, federal judges had refused to force the claims into arbitration, as the company argued the user agreements required. While Coinbase immediately appealed those decisions, the San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2022 refused the company's requests to put further litigation on hold pending those appeals.

22/06/2023

Bank of England hikes rates to 5% in surprise move to tackle stubborn inflation
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-The Bank of England raised interest rates by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point on Thursday, after it said there had been "significant" news suggesting British inflation would take longer to fall.

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to raise its main interest rate to 5% from 4.5%, the highest since 2008 and its largest rate increase since February, following stickier inflation and wage growth since policymakers last met in May.

"The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high and we've got to deal with it," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said after the decision. "If we don't raise rates now, it could be worse later," he added.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a move to 4.75%, although financial markets earlier on Thursday had seen a nearly 50% chance of a rise to 5%, following higher-than-expected inflation data released on Wednesday.

Sterling briefly spiked higher against the U.S. dollar while two-year bond yields briefly dipped below 5% after the BoE decision. An inversion of the two-year to 10-year yield curve, often a sign that investors expect a recession, deepened.

Joseph Little, Global Chief Strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said Britain was in the worst position of major Western economies, hit not only by the cost of living crisis but also a shortage of workers and fast-rising wages.

"Inflation pressures show more persistency and more momentum than other western economies, and that forces the Bank into a hawkish corner," Little said.

"Today's statement has increased concerns of a much-higher terminal policy rate, perhaps as high as 6%."

BoE policymakers had given little indication that a half-point rate increase was under consideration in the run-up to Thursday's announcement.

"There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process," the MPC said. "Second-round effects in domestic price and wage developments generated by external cost shocks are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge."

MPC members Silvana Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra opposed the rate rise - as they have all others this year - saying that much of the impact of past tightening had yet to be felt, and forward-looking indicators pointed to steep falls in inflation and wage growth ahead.

Britain's high inflation rate is also a problem for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has pledged to halve the pace of price growth this year in an attempt to win back voter support ahead of a national election expected in 2024.

A spokesperson for Sunak said shortly before Thursday's rates announcement that Sunak supported Bailey. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the BoE had his full support and "tackling inflation relentlessly must be the immediate priority".

Bailey has been criticised by some lawmakers from Sunak's Conservative Party for not acting sooner and more aggressively on inflation.

RATE EXPECTATIONS SURGE

Expectations for BoE rate tightening have surged in recent days - sharply raising the cost of new mortgages - and before Thursday's decision financial markets expected the BoE's Bank Rate to peak at 6% by the end of the year. By contrast, economists polled by Reuters last week saw a 5% peak.

Britain's economy - which was hit by the shock of Brexit as well as the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in gas prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine - has dodged a widely expected recession so far in 2023.

However, unlike most other big rich economies, output has barely recovered to pre-pandemic levels and growth this year looks set to be a minimal 0.25%, according to BoE forecasts last month.

The BoE's rate increase follows the European Central Bank's decision last week to raise rates by a quarter-point to 3.5%, and rate rises by the Swedish and Norwegian central banks earlier on Thursday.

While Britain faces a tricky inflation challenge as inflation has been slow to fall from the 41-year high of 11.1% struck last year, other central banks see challenges too.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel described inflation as a "very greedy beast" on Wednesday, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said further rate rises remained "a pretty good guess", despite last week's pause.

The BoE retained its previous guidance on future policy, which stated that if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.

The central bank also noted that short-dated British government bond yields had risen sharply - pricing in an average level of Bank Rate of 5.5% for the next three years.

The BoE said it would keep a close eye on the impact of higher rates on mortgage costs, as well as rising costs in Britain's rental market.

Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation was unchanged at 8.7% in May and underlying inflation rose to its highest since 1992.

Last month the central bank forecast that inflation would fall to just over 5% by the end of this year and be below its 2% target in early 2025.

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