31/07/2021
Interesting article re making sure you don’t run out of FIRE funds from sticking to the 4% rule in this week.
The article explains a study which shows the potential F.I.R.E. failure rates if people stick to the 4% withdrawal rate over a prolonged period of time, up to 50 years.
The article states the importance of using a ‘dynamic’ approach to safe withdrawal rates, e.g. in a year where interest rates are high you can withdraw safely, but where interest rates are lower you’d need to adapt your withdrawal rate to match those lower rates to make sure you don’t run out of funds in your FIRE pot (imagine!!!).
I’ve always been cautious of the 4% SWR rule, and personally my FIRE fund target is based on 3% withdrawal rates, meaning I will need more in my FIRE pot to FIRE, but I will feel safer doing so, in case of any market crashes etc, just to give me a buffer. I’ve also projected for lower interest rates on investments going forward (as touched on in the article). A lot more of the FI community calculate returns on 8% (especially for index funds) but I’m more cautious with my calculations and predict a return of 5% maximum.
I also know I can defer to Lean FI if my SWR is not going to work out.
🔥What SWR are you aiming for?
🔥How long are you planning to be FIRE for?
🔥How will you make sure your FIRE funds don’t run dry?
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