AR FOREX TRADE

05/07/2022

25/03/2022

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16/12/2021

CAC 40: trading within the global ascending channel

16/12/2021

XAG/USD: demand for silver continues to grow

16/12/2021

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15/12/2021

XAU/USD: prices decline ahead of the US Fed meeting

Current trend

Gold prices are near 1770.00 after a noticeable downward correction recorded the day before. Market activity remains subdued as traders await the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which as many hope, will indicate a further tightening of the US regulator's rhetoric.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce an early completion of the bond purchase program, potentially bringing the next year's interest rate hikes forward. Previously, it was assumed that the regulator will fully complete the quantitative easing program by June 2022, but now it may turn out that the department will have ended it by March. However, skeptics argue that the Chairman of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, began the fight against high inflation too late, and therefore the regulator's plans will be adjusted more than once.
Additional support for the dollar is provided by the statistics on manufacturing inflation released yesterday. In November, the Producer Price Index excluding Food and Energy rose 0.7%, accelerating after rising 0.4% in October.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing more confident "bearish" dynamics, but is rapidly approaching its lows, indicating growing risks of the instrument being oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1778.32, 1790.00, 1800.00, 1812.22.
Support levels: 1760.74, 1750.44, 1740.00.

25/10/2021

USD/JPY: growth amid easing quarantine restrictions

Current trend

USD/JPY is declining against the background of the growing JPY, being at 113.64.
After 2 weeks of almost non-stop decline, JPY began a correction against USD. A positive trend is observed against the background of an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the Tokyo region, where the rate of new infections began to decline sharply amounting to 26 people yesterday. In this regard, the authorities decided to ease restrictions on the work of restaurants.
However, despite the positive data on morbidity, Japan's economic performance did not please investors. The Leading Economic Index continued to decline in August and amounted to –2.8% after –0.1% in July. The Coincident Index for the same period fell to –3.1% from –0.2% in July.
In turn, USD began a gradual decline after the Chair of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, said that the regulator may begin reducing the volume of the asset repurchase program in the near future, but raising rates is out of the question, since problems in the labor market still persist. Powell did not name any specific dates again, which caused a negative reaction from investors.

Support and resistance

USD/JPY is correcting downwards, trying to reach the resistance line of the global channel. Technical indicators are in a state of global buying, but they do not exclude a correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations began to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new descending bars.
Resistance levels: 114.40, 116.00.
Support levels: 113.20, 112.00.

25/10/2021

USD/CAD: the instrument develops flat dynamics

Current trend

USD has shown a moderate decline against CAD during the Asian session, developing mixed trading dynamics in the short term.
Investors continue to focus on the situation with increased inflation, which forces the leading central banks of the world to act somewhat faster than the previously indicated timeframes. Thus, the US Fed and the Bank of Canada are already quite close to a possible tightening of monetary policy. Many analysts suggest that the US regulator will announce the reduction of its quantitative easing (QE) program already at the November meeting.
The macroeconomic statistics from the USA and Canada published on Friday turned out to be quite optimistic; however, the dynamics of the instrument was largely influenced by the Canadian data. Retail Sales in Canada increased by 2.1% MoM in August after falling by 0.1% MoM (revised from –0.6% MoM). The real dynamics turned out to be very close to the market forecasts at the level of 2.0% MoM. Retail Sales excluding Autos for the same period increased by 2.8% MoM after falling by 0.4% MoM in July.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is reversing to growth forming a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic increases more confidently, which, however, weakly correlates with the real trend in the market.
Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2445, 1.2500, 1.2558.
Support levels: 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2245, 1.2200.

25/10/2021

NZD/USD: ND wins back its positions

Current trend

NZD is showing active growth during the morning session, quickly recovering from the corrective decline at the end of last week, when the instrument failed to consolidate at the June local highs.
The macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Friday did not provide almost any support to USD. Nevertheless, Markit Services PMI in October rose from 54.9 to 58.2 points against the forecast at 55.1 points. Markit PMI Composite for the same period strengthened from 55 to 57.3 points, which also turned out to be better than expected at 54.7 points.
Today, investors are focused on Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for September, as well as Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Business Index for October. Noteworthy statistics from New Zealand will appear only tomorrow, when the September data on the dynamics of imports and exports will be published.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands actively, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD preserves an uptrend with a quite strong signal for purchase (the histogram is located above the signal line). Stochastic, on the other hand, is declining rather quickly, signaling in favor of the development of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7250, 0.7286, 0.7315.
Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7040, 0.7000.

25/10/2021

AUD/USD: correction after decline at the end of the week

Current trend

AUD is showing corrective gains against USD, recovering from a moderate decline at the end of last week and preparing to test 0.7500 for a breakout; however, there are still few fundamental reasons for the instrument's growth.
Last week, the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, reiterated the regulator's commitment to a gradual tightening of monetary policy through a reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program, which the Fed plans to fully complete by mid-2022. With regard to a potential increase in interest rates, the current inflation rate is significantly shortening the time frame, and there are no reasons for a slowdown in price growth so far.
Meanwhile, the activity of the US manufacturing sector, according to published data, is already starting to decline. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October fell from 60.7 to 59.2 points against the forecast at 60.3 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards but preserves its previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing a more confident downtrend, still signaling in favor of the development of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.
To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear.
Resistance levels: 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600, 0.7650.
Support levels: 0.7440, 0.7408, 0.7374, 0.7328.

25/10/2021

Walt Disney Co.: wave analysis

The asset is in correction; the probability of fall is maintained.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, in which wave 1 of (5) has formed and a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (5). At the moment, wave a of 2 has been formed, the local correction is completed as wave b of 2 and the development of wave c of 2 has begun, in which wave (ii) of c ended. If the assumption is right, the fall of the price will continue to the levels of 155.16–140.83. The level of 180.24 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions are relevant from corrections below the level of 180.24 with targets at 155.16–140.83. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 180.24 will help the shares continue growth to the levels of 202.98–220.00.

25/10/2021

Netflix Inc.: wave analysis

The price may rise.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, in which the wave 3 of (5) has been formed, the development of correction as the fourth wave 4 of (5) is completed and the fifth wave 5 of (5) is developing. At the moment, the third wave iii of 5 is developing, within which wave (iii) of iii is formed. If the assumption is correct, the price will continue growing to the levels of 715.00–750.00. The level of 616.14 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Long positions are relevant from the corrections above the level of 616.14 with targets at 715.00–750.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

Breaking down and consolidation below the level of 616.14 will allow the shares to continue decreasing to 567.29–530.00.