08/01/2021
European renewables auctions ‘set for record-breaking year’
45GW capacity pipeline featuring 17GW of wind and 6GW of solar PV predicted for 2021.
This year has the potential to be “record-breaking” for renewables auctions in Europe.
As the race to meet 2030 targets begins, there will be 45GW of capacity put up for grabs across Europe, researchers believe.
The total consists of 17GW of wind and 6GW of solar PV, with the remainder of auctions being either technology-neutral or applying to several sources.
Previous auction outcomes highlight that there is no guarantee the targeted volumes will be achieved – over the past three years, European auctions have seen an average award rate of 70%.
If this same level of success is achieved in 2021, we could see upwards of 30GW of capacity awarded.
Wind and solar PV will represent a “vast majority” of capacity procured in 2021, while the non-dispatchable nature of these technologies presents a flexibility challenge to power systems.
The analyst outfit highlighted this has already started to manifest in several markets, with negative day-ahead and intra-day power prices occurring during periods of high non-dispatchable renewable generation and low demand.
Coronavirus-related demand issues aside, the frequency of negative prices are expected to increase.
This raises the question: are policymakers aware of the flexibility challenge ahead? While negative prices should receive much greater focus over the coming year, we think price signals alone are unlikely to trigger new investment in much-needed flexible resources.
Once government restrictions are eased and industrial activity recovers in 2021, we predict power demand will return, to support higher prices.
“In the absence of major additions of flexible resources, supply pressure in 2021 will be determined by the availability of existing generators and the scale of thermal plant closures.
The ability of Europe’s power systems to cope with the winter’s challenges will be a significant indicator of future flexible supply requirements and overriding policy direction on matters of system security and reliability.
Balancing and day-ahead markets will see further harmonisation, while the build-out of HVDC interconnectors in 2021 will continue.