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13/07/2023

Mid-week market update- 13/07/2023

USD continues it's move lower and comes under renewed selling pressure following CPI data and softer than expected inflation for month of June. CPI rose 3% in June year on year, down 1% on the previous month. Core inflation rose less than market expectations.

GBPUSD still rallying through this morning's session and at at 1.3109 as we type. The question being whether the pound can sustain this given wider impact of rate hikes- we remain sellers of the pair but advise caution given current market volatility.

UK GDP data revealed the UK economy shrank less than forecast in the month of May. This alongside strong labour market data for the UK has seen the pound continue it's surge and signalled that further rate hikes could well lie ahead.

EURUSD broke through resistance to hit 1.1100 yesterday, though we continue to monitor for a sell opportunity- so far sellers remain poised. Watch this space.

07/07/2023

⚠️ USD ends this week on the back foot following lower than expected NFP data. Treasury yields remain in positive territory above 4%, limiting some of the selling pressure seen in this morning's session.

⬆️ Gold futures experience slight increase. We anticipate further bearish correction on XAUUSD to come.

GBP strong in response to market pricing in further expected rate hikes for the remainder of 2023. The effect on UK property market and wider economic outlook as a result could see limits to further GBP upside.

Following the releases of significant US employment data in the holiday-shortened week, the US Dollar (USD) is geared up for the all-important US Nonf

04/07/2023

Mid-week market update- 04/07/2023

*** US Independence Day ***

The uptrend on GBPUSD lost momentum last week as interest rate expectations narrowed between the UK and US. The last few sessions have shown a downtrending price channel. We remain long-term bearish on the pair though expect it to remain rangebound whilst awaiting NFP and CPI data from the US.

The strong UK labour market and inflation reports are likely to see further hikes from the BoE to above the 6% level.

Gold is edging higher through this morning's session though seeking direction ahead of the Fed meeting minutes tomorrow and US holiday today. Upside momentum currently capped amid hawkish Fed bets. So far XAUUSD is failing to hold above $1,930.

EURUSD upside is also likely to be capped as US unemployment is expected to have eased, lending support to a further rate hike by the Fed later this month. US non-farm payrolls are expected to have grown 225k in June, down from 339k in May, but the unemployment rate is expected to have eased to 3.6%.

GBP/USD is in for a restrained trading day as the US celebrates Independence Day, ahead of UK services PMI data and the FOMC Minutes.

20/06/2023

Mid-week market update- 20/06/2023

Key sessions ahead as we await UK CPI data for May inflation on Wednesday followed by BoE rate decision on Thursday.

GBP/USD surged above $1.28 at market close on Friday and though has retreated slightly in the last sessions the bulls remain in control. Investors strongly anticipate a further rate hike and tightening of UK monetary policy

April CPI data was the first sign of a slowdown in UK inflation in over 12 months however still significantly above the bank's target of 2%.

USD/JPY eases following an upbeat start by Treasury bond yields and an initial drop for the Yen following BoJ no change rate decision.

Gold seeking direction following US market holiday though indicators show that the sellers seem to have the upper hand. Modest USD strength as yields pushed higher through Monday.

The gold price slipped today as Treasury yields rose to augment the US Dollar and ahead of Fed Chair Powel’s testimony tomorrow while the BoE has its work cut out for them. Lower XAU/USD?

07/06/2023

Mid-week market update- 07/06/2023

Pound easing throughout the last sessions. Weak data and and the fall in UK house prices y/y for the first time in 11 years have softened the pound following recent rallies.

EURUSD is looking for a breakout ahead as markets price in an almost certain 25bps rate hike by the ECB next week. We remain long-term rally sellers on this pair however some bullish momentum to be expected over the coming sessions.

XAUUSD is mixed and we expect more 2-way trading as Fed rate hike bets are unclear ahead of next week's meeting.

We continue to monitor USDCAD for further decline ahead of the BoC policy decision today. Strong econimic performance and higher than expected April inflation data has set the precedent for potential fresh rate hikes. Decision released today at 14:00 GMT.

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31/05/2023

Mid-week market update- 31/05/2023

Dollar gains and continues to hold firm against other majors as a debt ceiling deal looks increasingly likely to be reached.

Euro slides lower after inflation eases across the region and the sellers remain in control. We remain rally sellers as per our ongoing strategy.

Gold continues it's descent after finding support around $1,960 yesterday. Further downwards momentum looks likely given the impact of a hawkish Fed and news of a debt ceiling deal being agreed in principle. Key data in the form of US emploment report will be released Friday with labour market strength being an indicator of further rate setting decisions.

GBP/USD rebounded in yesterday's session though has fallen on stronger dollar this morning. We are likely to see further 2-way trading in the next sessions, though long-term bias is bearish. We await key data for a clearer direction.

EUR/USD is back below 1.0700 after a very short-lived rebound. Economists at ING believe that the pair could challenge the 1.06 level. Hard to push EC

16/05/2023

More core pair ranging this week as the US debt ceiling talks between Biden and Congress pick up once again.

Gold has been retreating throughout the London and US sessions and continues to fall as we type. It has broken through the $2,000 support barrier and we anticipate it will continue the corrective decline through the next sessions.

Pound weaker through today's sessions due to signs of cooling labour market after rise in unemployment for the first time in 2 years.

EUR/USD ranging tightly though we still favour selling as our preferred side but caution required at the lower levels.

Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest uptick and comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday. The XAU/USD, however,

10/05/2023

Mid-week market update- 10/05/2023

USD/JPY weakening after trading at weekly high as some JPY demand returns. Recent gains capping as core pairs continue to range ahead of CPI data release.

GBP hit record high for the year throughout the last sessions. BoE meeting tomorrow helping strength of the pound as markets lean towards a further 25bps hike.

XAU/USD edges lower throughout the London session and still looking for sells as we type. Caution to rally sellers as the ongoing US debt limit and sentiment of nearing the end of the Fed rate hikes makes for an uncertain future for US bond yields.

Awaiting key CPI data from the US shortly which should set the scene for further rate setting by the Fed next month and confirm further core pair price movements.

The greenback was on the offensive early on Wednesday ahead of April's consumer price index.

02/05/2023

New month, new market outlook- 02/05/2023

FOMC decision on further rate hikes ahead of announcement tomorrow. A further 25bps rate hike is expected. Key US data week ahead with Fed rate decision and latest jobs report from across the pond.

UK house prices rose 0.5% in April following a multi-month run of declines. Pound started the day stronger on JPY supply but gains remain capped at 1.2520 due to ongoing softer UK inflation expectations.

Euro softer ahead of ECB decision on further interest rate hikes and unable to hold recent gains. We await the next release of key inflation data as uncertainty reigns regarding another 25bps rate hike.

Gold continues to range tightly with rallies seen so far in today's session currently capped.

BoJ decision on softer monetary policy and no rate hike has triggered JPY selling and caused it to decline against other majors through the last sessions.

The euro dipped after several data points underscored market expectations of a smaller 25 basis point ECB hike this week, while the Aussie dollar leapt over 1% against the dollar on Tuesday after a surprise central bank rate increase.

26/04/2023

Mid-week market update- 26/04/2023

US debt ceiling concerns that US Treasury Dept could hit its debt limit in the coming months. Dollar broadly weaker as US treasury bond yields fall and further speculation of rate cuts by the Fed.

XAUUSD- Gold stronger though tightly ranging through the last sessions. Still awaiting confirmation of price to continue to correctional bearish trend.

EURUSD rallying up through 1.10000 so far this session and is a key pivot zone as Euro bulls have struggled to hold gains above this level. German inflation data this week could further indicate a hawkish stance from the ECB. Though rangebound, we monitor for short-term opportunity for further uptrend.

GBPUSD- Pound stronger throughout the last sessions and the pair regains positive traction through this morning's session. However next week's BoE meeting will be a crucial indicator of any potential easing of UK monetary policy.

Concerns about the U.S. banking system fuelled bids for safe-haven government bonds on Wednesday, while money markets nudged down expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) tightening path.

20/04/2023

💵 Dollar has fallen throughout the London and New York sessions due to higher than expected jobless claims and further Fed rate hikes in the coming months having largely already been priced in by investors.

💷 Pound remains lifted by higher than expected CPI data that has left markets pricing in a further rate increase next month. Inflation still a major woe for the UK economy.

The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday as weak data reinforced expectations the world's largest economy is likely headed toward recession, further supporting the view that the Federal Reserve could pause in June after another expected rate hike next month.The greenback hit session lows against the yen an....

18/04/2023

Mid-week market update- 18/04/2023

GBP/USD- UK wage growth sends sterling higher, as markets price in 90% chance of a further 25bps rake hike by the BoE next month. UK inflation data released tomorrow will be catalyst for further price movement. We remain long-term bearish on the pair and several pips banked in the pairs' retreat through these last sessions.

XAU/USD- dollar lower today after rallying Monday on higher UK Treasury yields. Markets also pricing in Fed 25bps rate hike in May. Gold prices rose throughout the last session as dollar and DXY eased slightly.

EUR/USD further 2-way movement and a retreat to the downside expected soon as the pair fails to break through 1.1000.

China GDP grows 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023, however weak inflation and imports dampens CNY bond yields as investor confidence shifts.

GBP/USD is bid this morning after UK labor data showed faster wage growth that brought into consideration another rate hike from the BoE in May.