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ANZ Research now expects the cash rate to remain at 3.60 per cent for an “extended” period, marking a significant shift ...
02/12/2025

ANZ Research now expects the cash rate to remain at 3.60 per cent for an “extended” period, marking a significant shift from earlier forecasts that assumed additional easing in 2026.

The bank says recent inflation pressures, steadier economic growth and a labour market moving into balance mean the RBA is unlikely to deliver further cuts.

At the same time, ANZ says it is “difficult to see a rate hike in 2026”, pointing to the rise in unemployment over the past year and conflicting signals across demand indicators.

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The pair fell from 1.1380 to 1.1360 in the minutes following news HICP inflation for November came in slightly higher th...
02/12/2025

The pair fell from 1.1380 to 1.1360 in the minutes following news HICP inflation for November came in slightly higher than expected at 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October.

This is ahead of consensus expectations for an unchanged reading. Core inflation held steady as expected at 2.4%.

The data underscores the European Central Bank's commitment to keeping interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, which offers the euro a fundamental source of support against currencies belonging to central banks where rates will be lowered.

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The call signals a looming turning point for the Canadian dollar, which has underperformed currencies in its peer group ...
02/12/2025

The call signals a looming turning point for the Canadian dollar, which has underperformed currencies in its peer group - the so-called commodity dollars - in recent months.

Expectations for outperformance rest on an assessment that Canada's economy is starting to find its feet again, although trade tensions with the U.S. remain an outstanding issue.

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The New Zealand dollar is a buy with Goldman Sachs, confirming increasing institutional backing for one of 2025's bigges...
02/12/2025

The New Zealand dollar is a buy with Goldman Sachs, confirming increasing institutional backing for one of 2025's biggest underperformers.

"We see a compelling case for NZD longs," says Goldman Sachs in a weekly strategy note, joining a host of others who see opportunity in backing New Zealand's currency.

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Above: P.M. Keir Starmer defends his budget in a speech delivered Monday. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street...
02/12/2025

Above: P.M. Keir Starmer defends his budget in a speech delivered Monday. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street.

The pound to euro exchange rate's (GBP/EUR) rally has scope to run further say analysts at Barclays, who judge "last week's budget generates scope for an, at least partial, unwind of the pound's fiscal risk premium."

In a weekly analysis, the investment bank's FX team say this upside potential derives from a larger headroom, residual net short positions, and a positive risk backdrop into December.

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GBP/CAD peaked at 1.8625 on Wednesday before dropping back to 1.85 in the wake of Friday's impressive domestic GDP data....
01/12/2025

GBP/CAD peaked at 1.8625 on Wednesday before dropping back to 1.85 in the wake of Friday's impressive domestic GDP data.

Canada's economy grew 2.6% y/y on an annualised basis, smashing expectations for a more pedestrian 0.5% growth.

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GBP/AUD rose to a high of 2.0474 last week, but Tuesday's spike proved to be a blowout top for the November rally, and w...
01/12/2025

GBP/AUD rose to a high of 2.0474 last week, but Tuesday's spike proved to be a blowout top for the November rally, and we're now witnessing the ensuing drawdown.

That top coincided with a failed break of the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), confirming this indicator to be an important element of any technical FX assessment.

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Last week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy update convinced markets that the rate cutting cycle in NZ had end...
01/12/2025

Last week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy update convinced markets that the rate cutting cycle in NZ had ended.

The pound to New Zealand dollar (GBP/NZD) responded by dropping 0.80% on the day, having posted a new ten-year high at 2.3552 just 24 hours prior.

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Pound sterling recorded its biggest weekly gain against the U.S. dollar last week, opening the door to potential further...
01/12/2025

Pound sterling recorded its biggest weekly gain against the U.S. dollar last week, opening the door to potential further gains into year-end.

The pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) starts December at 1.3218, helped by a combination of domestic relief owing to the passing of last week's budget and rising bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Dec. 17.

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The pound to euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) rose a third of a per cent last week and opens the final month of the year at ...
01/12/2025

The pound to euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) rose a third of a per cent last week and opens the final month of the year at 1.1407.

In fact, the pair has witnessed two consecutive weekly gains, confirming that last week's highly anticipated budget didn't have the adverse effect on sterling that many in the market were expecting.

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The world's largest prime FX dealer says the NZD’s depreciation should now stabilise as markets see the RBNZ’s easing cy...
28/11/2025

The world's largest prime FX dealer says the NZD’s depreciation should now stabilise as markets see the RBNZ’s easing cycle ending, interest rates turning higher and the currency looking "grossly undervalued" against the USD, with NZD/USD expected to hold above 0.55 and rebound toward 0.59.

Following this week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate cut, and associated guidance, Citi says to expect a short-term correction stronger in NZD/AUD after the recent overshoot.

1. NZD Depreciation Likely to Stabilise

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The data put to bed any residual hopes of further interest rate cuts at the Bank of Canada, boosting Canadian bond yield...
28/11/2025

The data put to bed any residual hopes of further interest rate cuts at the Bank of Canada, boosting Canadian bond yields and the domestic currency.

Markets weren't expecting any fireworks from the data release meaning currency traders were not adequately positioned for the scale of the surprise, which is why we have seen such a strong reaction:

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