RDM Advisory

07/03/2023

As common sense overcame the tit-for-tat, white smoke finally emerged in Ankara. The opposition, perhaps half-heartedly, is now reunited under CHP's Kilicdaroglu. While the remnants of the crisis will stay, the opposition is now ready to face Erdogan as united and stronger than before. Our update on the 72-hour political drama.

In a nail-biting finish on Monday, Turkey’s opposition has averted its first and most critical hurdle, as they agreed to back CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their joint presidential candidate and continued to pose a united front against Erdogan. This brief analysis gives insight into the 72-hour sa...

19/11/2021

In light of another lira crash following the central bank’s interest rates cut on Thursday, Ankara is a melting pot. The opposition leaders are confident enough to renew calls for early elections, the country’s leading economists are united in their criticisms, the usually timid businessmen are increasingly expressive, while Erdogan’s ministers, social media trolls and his enigmatic ruling partner are equally silent. While all the signs of early elections are present, can the regime hold its ground until 2023? And where and how far can Erdogan go in his measures?

In the aftermath of another exchange rate shock which saw lira took a nosedive following the central bank’s interest rates cut, Ankara is a melting pot. The opposition leaders are confident enough to renew calls for early elections, the country’s leading economists are united in their criticisms...

14/10/2021

We are excited to announce that our first video collaboration with the the Hollings Center for International Dialogue is now available online with English subtitles!

In ''Iran's Raisi Era,'' RDM Advisory's Erdem Aydin discussed Iran’s new era under a hardliner President and its implications for the region and beyond.

It’s Iran 101: We talked about Iran’s conservatives, domestic power struggles, its street protests, relations with the West (and the East!), including its nuclear program and sanctions-crippled economy, and the roots of its regional interventionism.

If you are interested in Iran and the power politics in the Middle East and beyond, click below for the video.

Looking forward to your questions and comments,

RDM Advisory

https://hollingscenter.org/irans-raisi-era/

08/04/2021

“You have a situation in which the law is not functioning properly in Turkey,” Erdem Aydin, Turkey expert and director of consultancy at RDM Advisory, told the Washington Report.

Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2021, pp. 40-41 Talking Turkey By Jonathan Gorvett With A Good Deal of fanfare, March 2 saw Turkey’s Presiden...

18/03/2021

A top Turkish prosecutor launched a case to ban the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), in the latest series of crackdown against the third largest party in the parliament, accelerating the democratic backsliding in the country. This short analysis explains the background of this 90s-inspired move and what it means for the Turkish politics and the Kurdish issue, including a take at Erdogan’s odds at the Constitutional Court vote.

''If there is one lesson that Erdogan, his party and the judicial apparatus should draw from recent Turkish history, it is that the party closure attempts usually backfire and undermine the legitimacy and popularity of the initiator, not the other way around.''

A top Turkish prosecutor launched a case to ban the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), in the latest series of crackdown against the third largest party in the parliament, accelerating the democratic backsliding in the country. This short analysis explains the background of this 90s-insp...

17/11/2020

The tumultuous resignation of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law as Finance Minister, was a milestone in Erdogan’s 18-year rule of the country, as it exposed political rifts at the highest -the family- level, for the first time.

Despite the resignation saga which has thrown the Erdogan regime off balance, the economy, seems to have slightly picked up steam, following the President’s messages of financial orthodoxy and judicial reform.

Does Erdogan’s replacement of his son-in-law usher a new era for Turkey? Is the country heading back to reforms and democracy? The short answer is no, and here is why.

The tumultuous resignation of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law as Finance Minister, was a milestone in Erdogan’s 18-year rule of the country, as it exposed political rifts at the highest -the family- level, for the first time. Despite the resignation saga which has thrown the Erdoga...

27/09/2020

Our Director Erdem Aydin's comments on the Trump-Erdogan bond for Cyprus Mail. “As they have both been out of the system for so long,” says Aydin, “they are both highly reliant on family and close confidants, which makes for another bond.”

“They both detest their country’s bureaucracies and the limitations this places on them,” says Aydin. “In Turkey, there is now a presidential system based on the US model, but without the checks and balances. If Trump could have a political system, it would be like Erdogan’s.”

In award-winning journalist Bob Woodward’s recent book, Rage, the veteran Watergate reporter quotes a January 2020 conversation with US President Donald Trump on the subject of foreign leaders. “It’s funny,” Woodward reports the US leader as saying, “the tougher and meaner they are, the be...

19/05/2020

**Webinar Alert** We are excited to extend our first-ever webinar invitation, where we will discuss our latest publication, The Coronapolitics Report, a special issue covering the pandemic from a political risk angle.

The webinar (22 May, Friday - 1500 London Time) will be presented by RDM Advisory’s Erdem Aydin, in which he will discuss the report’s major themes, Authoritarianism and Civil Unrest, Alliances and Diplomacy, War and Terrorism and Protectionism, under the light of recent developments.

We will be delighted if you could join us in our webinar. If interested, please register here:

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/upctdeurrTMiHdZ6vYWDH9DWs7pjr4YLngu4

Hope to see you all there!

RDM Advisory

13/05/2020

Welcome to RDM Advisory's page. We inaugurate our page with ''The Coronapolitics Report,'' a special publication where we look at the crisis from a a much-needed political risk perspective.

As the world appears to come to a mid-way in the crisis, we have identified four major themes which have shaped the state behaviour during the pandemic: ''Authoritarianism and Civil Unrest'', ''Alliances and Diplomacy'', ''War and Terrorism'' and ''Protectionism.''

The coronavirus era has seen opportunist and defensive forces at play.

Some key findings:

1) While many governments, especially in Eurasia and MENA, have used the pandemic to cement authoritarianism (by power-grabbing, censorship and crackdowns), the opposition has found new venues and momentum to combat such encroachments.

2) In diplomacy, established alliances such as the EU strove to protect their integrity, in the face of others (Russia, China, Turkey) filling in their vacuum to help the virus-hit member states (Italy, Spain) through medical diplomacy.

3) Faits accomplis in the war zones (Libya, Yemen) were not tolerated by either sides, while terror groups (ISIS, PKK) benefiting from the security vacuums, have made limited comebacks.

4) While the state-funds and banks of some rich states (Saudi Arabia, China) went bargain hunting as assets plunged, the others (in Europe and Asia) strove to protect their industries, strengthening nationalization tendencies.

From our conclusion: ''While the notions and practices of authoritarianism, nationalism and self-sufficiency are on the rise, the abundance of solidarity, internationalism and interdependency carry hope for the post-coronavirus world.''

You can download the report by clicking the link below.
https://www.rdmadvisory.com/reports

Enjoy and stay safe!

Enis Erdem Aydin
Director
RDM Advisory