North Tech Capital

03/04/2026

Saying "I don't know yet" is the most underrated skill in investing.

The pressure to have an immediate opinion on the SpaceX or OpenAI IPO is intense.

The media wants a "Yes" or a "No."

But why not wait and see?

It isn't "boring" to wait for the S-1, it's disciplined.

I’d rather miss the first 10% of a rally than be the one providing the exit liquidity for a venture capital firm that’s been holding for a decade.

Excitement is for the "buy-and-hope" crowd.

Clarity is for the long-term investor.

02/04/2026

The siren song of the “Cheap” stock trap is the most dangerous thing an investor faces.

When a stock like Adobe ($ADBE) drops significantly, the temptation is to "average down."

However, in the 2026 AI landscape, we must distinguish between a bargain and a "value trap."

Adobe is currently fighting a defensive battle against both high-end AI disruption and nimble competitors.

For this to be a recovery story, their "Firefly" AI must become a profit-engine, not just a defensive shield.

We believe the safer move for the next 6-12 months is maintaining cash until the structural durability of the creative moat is proven.

Once a week, I share investment research to help you build your portfolio in short order.

02/04/2026

Good investing is about owning the infrastructure, not just the headlines.

While the market focuses on OpenAI, we are looking at the "Sovereign Foundation" of tech, the companies that provide essential compute and energy for AI to function.

Alphabet ($GOOGL) serves as a prime example of a company that controls its own destiny by owning its hardware, models, and distribution.

By focusing on these mature, vertical stacks, we avoid the uncertainty of new listings with undisclosed revenue metrics.

Full article below.
https://northtechcapital.com/the-ipo-trap-why-im-ignoring-openai-and-spacex-to-own-the-plumbing-instead/

01/04/2026

A reader recently asked a vital question on my SpaceX/OpenAI post: Are we prioritising excitement over due diligence?

The short answer is yes.

Nasdaq and FTSE Russell are currently "fast-tracking" these giants into the indices for when they IPO.

This means your pension fund might be forced to buy OpenAI or SpaceX just 15 days after they list, long before the market has truly digested the S-1 filing (listing documents).

When a company like OpenAI is valued at $840 billion privately, it is being judged on a narrative.

But in the public market, narratives eventually hit the brick wall of Capital Efficiency.

I’m not interested in the "excitement" of a trophy IPO.

I’m interested in the "Truth Serum" of audited financials.

Until we see the real cost of compute and the true churn rate of those 900 million users, the most productive move is to watch from the sidelines.

In 2026, the winners won't be the ones who caught the hottest IPO.

They will be the ones who protected their capital while the hype burned out.

31/03/2026

New rules from Nasdaq mean that newly listed giants like SpaceX could join premier indexes in as little as 15 days.

This will trigger massive automatic buying from ETFs and pension funds.

For the individual investor, this creates a "valuation trap."

These companies are listing at historic valuations: SpaceX at an estimated $1.75 trillion, leaving zero room for error.

When brand hype masks a reliance on burning cash, the risk of a "Day One" collapse is significant.

We break this down in more detail here.
https://northtechcapital.com/the-ipo-trap-why-im-ignoring-openai-and-spacex-to-own-the-plumbing-instead/

31/03/2026

In professional portfolio management, moving to a cash position is a strategic tool, not an admission of defeat.

By liquidating our $TSM position after an 18-month run, we have prioritised the safety of the principal over the hope of marginal extra gains.

This "reset" allows an investor to avoid the trap of holding yesterday's winners until they become tomorrow's value traps.

As we navigate 2026, the intersection of geopolitical tension and Sovereign AI requirements suggests that market leaders may face a period of instability.

Our strategy focuses on identifying when a thesis meets a sensible valuation, rather than attempting to catch the absolute bottom of a move.

The North Tech 15 has gained 47.62% since its launch, nearly doubling the S&P 500.

Maintaining that outperformance requires the discipline to step aside when the macro picture clouds the outlook for individual sectors.

29/03/2026

In the current era of Sovereign AI, tech companies are more dependent than ever on stable energy and shipping routes.

This shift means yesterday’s winners can quickly become value traps if geopolitical tensions rise.

The North Tech 15 community recently locked in a 123% gain in $TSM by moving to a 100% cash position.

While "staying the course" is common advice, we believe the next 6-12 months require a dedicated focus on capital preservation.

If geopolitical tensions continue to pressure energy prices, the massive power requirements of AI data centres will become a significant headwind for tech margins.

We are watching for a new "floor" to form in the semiconductor space rather than chasing the absolute bottom.

Good investing is about being selective. We are now waiting for the next sovereign leader to emerge from the noise.

28/03/2026

How to lock in a 123% gain in 18 months

Following a 47% gain, David Thomas explains why he moved the North Tech 15 to 100% cash on 3rd March. Learn why the conflict in Iran changed the risk profile for tech and why protecting capital is his #1 priority.

Why I moved to 100% cash on 3rd March. David Thomas on the Middle East conflict, protecting a 47% portfolio gain, and navigating geopolitical risk in a SIPP.

26/03/2026

A common challenge for investors is the fear of being left on the sidelines during a rally. However, successful long-term investing requires weighing opportunity cost against the risk of a "tail event."

When we liquidated our positions earlier this month, we acknowledged the risk of a short-term rally. But with volatile oil prices and threats to global shipping routes, the potential for a deeper correction remains a primary concern.

By moving to a cash position, we have essentially hit the reset button. This removes the emotional "anchoring" to previous purchase prices and allows us to evaluate the market with total objectivity.

The North Tech 15 has gained 47.62% since August 2024. Our current priority is protecting those gains until the risk-to-reward ratio shifts back in our favour.

Full article below.

Why I moved the North Tech 15 to 100% cash after a 47% gain. David Thomas on navigating Middle East uncertainty, protecting capital, and the power of hitting the reset button.

24/03/2026

Market volatility over the last three weeks serves as a reminder that protecting capital is a distinct and necessary strategy.

On 3rd March, we moved the North Tech 15 model portfolio to a 100% cash position. At the time, the S&P 500 closed at 6,816. With the index currently sitting near 6,580, the move has preserved gains during a 3.5% market retracement.

Our rationale was based on a darkening geopolitical picture in the Middle East—an uncertainty we believed was not yet priced into tech-driven gains. While "staying the course" is common advice, there are specific macro environments where stepping back to observe is the more prudent path.

Over the next 6–12 months, the ability to remain selective rather than simply "busy" will likely be a defining trait of successful portfolios. We are currently watching for a base to form and a shift in the risk-to-reward ratio before redeploying capital.

We break this down in more detail here.
https://northtechcapital.com/when-is-it-smarter-to-hold-cash/