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The pound rose strongly against the dollar Friday on economic data showing U.K. retail sales rebounded last month, but c...
29/03/2021

The pound rose strongly against the dollar Friday on economic data showing U.K. retail sales rebounded last month, but cable is set to end a second-straight week in the red as experts flag speed bumps ahead.

GBP/USD rose 0.42%, to $1.3789.

U.K. retail sales rose 2.1% last month following a steep drop at the start of 2021. Looking ahead, retail sales are expected to remain sluggish in March but "before a rebound in sales after non-essential stores reopen in England from 12 April onwards," Daiwa Capital Market said.

But in the midst of the improving economic backdrop, some experts are betting against the "overvalued" pound, citing post-Brexit U.K.-EU tensions.

The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, hovering near record gains against the euro and yen. Investors turned to th...
29/03/2021

The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, hovering near record gains against the euro and yen. Investors turned to the dollar thanks to the previous week’s U.S. economic data and the quickening pace of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine program.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.10% to 92.812 by 9:54 PM ET (1:54 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.01% to 109.66. The yen was not far from strong resistance and Friday's 10-month low of 109.85 against the dollar, as it is sensitive to gaps in returns on U.S. and Japanese government debt.

The U.S. economic recovery has seen a 76-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields in 2021, the biggest since February 2020. The rise drew in Japanese investors, in turn pushing the yen down near 6% in the quarter to date.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar began the week on a firm footing, inching toward a milestone peak against the euro on M...
29/03/2021

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar began the week on a firm footing, inching toward a milestone peak against the euro on Monday, as a cautious market mood pushed investors to safety while U.S. economic strength and a rapid vaccine rollout also added to the greenback's shine.

The euro was down 0.1% in the Asia session at $1.1783, not far above last week's four-and-a-half-month trough of $1.1762 and well below its 200-day moving average of about $1.1866.

The common currency is headed for its worst month since mid-2019 as Europe's faltering vaccination programme runs into a wave of new infections, a bearish signal as positioning data shows investors remain heavily long euros.

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near its highest since November against most major currencies on Friday, buoyed by ho...
26/03/2021

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near its highest since November against most major currencies on Friday, buoyed by hopes over improving U.S. economic data and the availability of coronavirus vaccines, while the euro recovered from heavy losses a day before.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar stood at 92.793, not far off a four-month high hit a day earlier and on course for a weekly gain of 0.9%.

In further signs of strength, the dollar rose to 109.44 against the Japanese yen, its highest since June. Against the Swiss franc, it rose to its highest since July, holding onto a 0.5% gain from the previous session.

The dollar edged lower in early European trading Friday, but remains near multi-month highs on the back of rising optimi...
26/03/2021

The dollar edged lower in early European trading Friday, but remains near multi-month highs on the back of rising optimism about the U.S. economic recovery, helped by a strong rollout of coronavirus vaccines.

At 3:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 92.793, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight.

USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.25, near its highest since June, GBP/USD was up 0.1% at 1.3750, helped by retail sales posting a modest rebound in February after a brutal start to the year, climbing 2.1% on the month, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7619.

The latest indication of the strength of the U.S. economic recovery came from Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, which showed the number of people filing last week fell to a one-year low of 684,000 from the 781,000 claims filed during the previous week.

There were warnings, however, against chasing the dollar higher from current levels from some corners over worries that ...
26/03/2021

There were warnings, however, against chasing the dollar higher from current levels from some corners over worries that the dollar’s gains over the past few weeks have been too rapid.

"The euro has broken through the 200-day moving average, and that is a clear sign that it will continue to go lower... the yen is getting strong on some of the crosses, which will cap dollar/yen. Yields have supported the dollar, but this move could start to run out of steam," MUFG Bank head of global markets research Minori Uchida told Reuters.

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Investors were bearish on all Asian currencies for the first time in a year, and also turned short...
25/03/2021

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Investors were bearish on all Asian currencies for the first time in a year, and also turned short on the Chinese yuan after a strong run since last summer, a Reuters poll showed, as U.S. economic outperformance and new lockdowns elsewhere muddy the outlook for risk assets.

Higher vaccinations and expectations that the U.S. economic recovery will far outpace the rest of the world has kept Treasury yields elevated and the dollar at a four-month high, tipping investors away from emerging market currencies and bonds that traditionally yield more though are considered riskier.

On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in...
25/03/2021

On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in the U.S. recovery during a second day of testimony to Congress.

Yellen told Senate lawmakers she was open to banks buying back stock and paying dividends, an updated view showing her confidence in the economy. Powell also said he thinks 2021 will be a "very, very strong year in the most likely case."

A day earlier, though, the treasury secretary had put investors on alert after espousing tax hikes to pay for President Joe Biden's plans for upgrading infrastructure and other investments.

The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday and could soon be staring down the barrel of a plunge below $1.18 as the thir...
25/03/2021

The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday and could soon be staring down the barrel of a plunge below $1.18 as the third wave of Covid-19 threatens the outlook for the economic bloc.

EUR/USD fell 0.22% to $1.1823 and could continue its bearish trend as the U.S. appears on track for a stronger recovery thanks to a speedy vaccine rollout, while the EU finds itself in the midst of lockdowns. There was some reprieve on the lockdown front for Germany, Europe's economic engine, as Chancellor Angela Merkel today scrapped plans for harsher Easter lockdown amid widespread criticism.

"The current uncertainty about the third wave … increases the risk that EUR-USD slips below 1.18," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note.

LONDON (Reuters) - Thrill-seeking younger people are turning to online apps to invest in high-risk crypto-assets and for...
24/03/2021

LONDON (Reuters) - Thrill-seeking younger people are turning to online apps to invest in high-risk crypto-assets and foreign exchange even though most are unable to absorb big losses, Britain's Financial Conduct Authority said on Tuesday.

The FCA said findings from its research showed that a new, younger and more diverse group of consumers are getting involved in higher risk investments. They tend to be female, under 40 and from a BAME background, using social media for tips and news, the FCA said.

Regulators in Europe and the UK have already issued several warnings to consumers about the risks of losing all their money from highly volatile investments like bitcoin, which has surged to record highs.

Despite slight market aversion to risk-correlated currencies, the Euro Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate’s gains...
24/03/2021

Despite slight market aversion to risk-correlated currencies, the Euro Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) exchange rate’s gains remain limited. Investors are hesitant to buy the Euro much amid concerns that the Eurozone is in for more coronavirus restrictions.

Last week saw EUR/AUD trend with a largely downside bias after opening the week at the level of 1.5404. However, the pair ended the week a little higher in the region of 1.5450.

This week’s movement has been mixed as well. Last night, EUR/AUD touched on a fortnight high of 1.5276 before slipping a little lower and trending around the week’s opening levels again today.

TOKYO (Reuters) - The safe-haven U.S. dollar approached a four-month high on Wednesday as concerns over a third COVID-19...
24/03/2021

TOKYO (Reuters) - The safe-haven U.S. dollar approached a four-month high on Wednesday as concerns over a third COVID-19 wave in Europe, potential U.S. tax hikes and escalating tensions between the West and China sapped risk appetite.

The yen also strengthened and U.S. Treasuries were bid while Wall Street stocks and crude oil tumbled as investors weighed the outlook for global growth.

The dollar index rose to a two-week high at 92.436 in the Asian session, approaching a four-month top of 92.506 hit earlier this month.

The gauge "looks determined to test the top end of a new, higher 91-93 range we think will form in coming weeks," Westpac strategists wrote in a client note.

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