19/06/2024
So inflation is finally back at the pre Liz Truss lets crash the world days and sits proudly back at 2% !
Good news for all, but given we are in political "purdah" waiting for an election to happen, it's highly unlikely that the BoE will take a politically sensitive step of reducing rates tomorrow, simply because it would be seen as boost to the incumbent Govt.
In fact, as inflation is a multi faceted animal, with various different measurements that include housing/ don't include housing, include food/ don't include food, include energy/ don't include energy etc, and the current fall is only "headline" inflation and is mainly due to falling energy prices, it's also unlikely that it will fall in August (there is no meeting in July as the entire committee, most of whom don't have mortgages, will be spending their wealth in Monaco or similar).
That means that we are likely to have to wait until September, two months into a new Government, to see the first fall since March 2020.
When this does happen, it is unlikely that rates will fall month on month and are most likely to drop back in small stages, over a long period of time, to around the 3.50% level that the boffins with heads the size of Jupiter are predicting.
That doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't fall (or indeed rise) beforehand. In the main, what drives mortgage rates is not, as most people believe, the Bank Of England Rate, but something called "swap rates". This is the cost to the lender of money being bought on money markets.
Long gone are the days when lenders could (and would) only lend out the money that they had taken in through savings and investments, and the mortgage rate was simply a premium on top of what they paid savers, with "mortgage products" being a thing of the future.
Today, the only mortgages that are directly and totally linked to the BoE rate are trackers, because they "track" the Bank of England Rate, and these didn't really exist when I started work in mortgages !
This is essentially why fixed rates have gone up since February this year, when it was possible to get sub 4% rates on Five Year Fixed borrowing, and Two Year rates were available in the mid 4's. In the real world, when swap rates alter, newly available mortgage rates follow as the cost of borrowing for lenders goes up.
This is one of the reasons why we process mortgage renewals early (usually five or six months out) so we can reserve you a new rate now, but still have the ability to change that rate if mortgage costs fall before your switch date.
This is a practice that on more than one occasion has lead to us having to revisit and change rates for customers up to three times, and whilst this is time consuming, it's worth doing and is a great way to show that we care enough to not just wait until three months out,, when you could end up paying more.
It seems inevitable that we are going to change colour on 4th July, something that some will think is good and some will think is bad, but it does look like the economy is no longer completely on it's knees and the British public are (in the words of Paul Heaton & The Beautiful South) trying to "Carry on Regardless"
The ride is still bumpy, but we are now dealing with mortgage renewals for people who are on rates of mid to late 3%'s going up rates of mid to late 5%'s rather than what we were seeing six months ago of those going from low 1%'s to high 5%'s and even 6%'s.
Stay strapped in, but Mama Cass Elliot (showing my age there) is just around the corner, and she is starting to warm up her vocal chords ready to belt out "It's getting better, growing stronger, getting better everyday".
Just don't ask me to do it on Karaoke !!!
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