Equity Development

12/01/2026

Knights H126 results were as announced at its update in November and illustrate the power of its position as the leading consolidator in the premium, regional legal market. Revenues rose an impressive 30%, including a return to organic growth of 2.6%, and Adj. PBT rose 12.5%, despite absorbing increased national insurance costs and investing in AI, led by a new CTO. Operating cashflow conversion has been excellent and momentum has continued into H226, hence management is confident in achieving FY26E expectations.

Yet Knights still only trades on 6.5x cal 2026 PER and under 6x cal 2027 PER. Given the successful H126 and positive outlook we raise our Fair Value/per share from 230p to 255p, equivalent to c.8x cal 2027 PER.

Read the full note (freely accessible) here:

Knights posts 30% revenue growth, strong cashflow, and organic gains in H126; fair value raised to 255p amid continued momentum and undervalued shares.

12/01/2026

Impax AM - "Q1-26 AUM -7% as expected, forecasts unchanged" - new research freely accessible here: https://bit.ly/3Yzwzc0

As expected, AUM fell 7% over Q1'26 (1 Oct 25 - 31 Dec 25) to £24.2bn. Investment performance was marginally negative at -£0.2bn with net outflows of £1.6bn. Impax’s FY25 results commentary in late-Nov 25 had said that net outflows were likely to persist in the first part of FY26, with net flows improving over the year.

Net flows reflect current global trends in sustainable investing. LSEG Lipper ‘responsible investing’ data shows equity funds suffering outflows for most of 2025 (equities make up 88% of Impax AUM), with robust inflows for bond funds (a strategic growth focus of Impax, currently 10% of AUM).

Encouragingly, there is widespread confidence in the future of sustainable investing. Morningstar/Sustainalytics recently wrote that : 'Recent investor surveys point to a bright future for sustainable investing… 86% of asset owners expect to increase allocations to sustainable investments in the next two years.'

Being so early in the financial year, and with positive markets so far in Jan 26, our forecasts remain unchanged - as does our fundamental valuation / share of 380p, more than twice the share price. This valuation disconnect is further reflected in Impax having a lowest-in-sector PER of 9.3x ... check it all out at the research link!

As expected AUM fell 7% over Q1'26 with IPX expecting net flows to improve through the year. Our forecasts and 380p/share fair value are unchanged.

22/12/2025

ECO Animal Health Group has announced that the European Commission has adopted the decision granting EU marketing authorisation (MA) for ECOVAXXIN® MS, the poultry vaccine against Mycoplasma synoviae. This important authorisation is key to commercialisation of this, the first of several major products under development to receive approval.

As the Group notes, the MA has been issued over a month earlier than anticipated. ECOVAXXIN® MS provides active immunisation of future layer and breeder chickens from four weeks old, helping to reduce air-sac and foot-pad lesions and egg production losses caused by Mycoplasma synoviae infection. We note that similar progress for ECOVAXXIN®MS in the US is anticipated by the end of CY26, following completion of a key efficacy study. EAH has stated that it expects a peak contribution to revenue from ECOVAXXIN®MS of c.£22m. As reaffirmed at H126 results, our Fair Value is 136p/share.

New research freely accessible here:

ECO Animal Health secures early EU approval for ECOVAXXIN® MS, its first poultry vaccine, marking a key milestone and paving way for 2026 launch.

19/12/2025

Strix Group - "Debt-Free Reset: Proposed sale of Billi"

The proposed disposal of Billi, conditional on shareholder approval, is transformational for the Group. Ahead of any movement in capital allocation, net cash would amount to c£37m on the repayment of all indebtedness. The net consideration of £107m equates to 45p/share, representing a premium to the current share price. Accordingly, we estimate the retained operating business is currently trading on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples of less than 0.7x and 3x-4x, respectively.

Strix Group has received an unsolicited approach for Billi and the proposed deal values the business at a consideration of £110m, which represents a significant uplift (2.9x) on the cash-and-debt-free price paid by Strix in early 2023 (£38m). Should investors ratify the transaction the focus should return to the cash generative ability of Controls and the Group’s potential growth and yield attributes.

There is no change to current estimates and the outcome of the conditional proposal is uncertain. We retain our previous fair value / share at 89p. This represents a marked premium to the closing share price. With investor’s focus likely to be modified to favour growth and yield considerations, from debt-related risks, we anticipate a re-rating of the shares. Full details in our new research note (freely accessible) here:

Strix Group to sell Billi for £110m, delivering 3x return, eliminating £70m debt, and enabling share buybacks and strategic growth initiatives

17/12/2025

Springfield Properties has announced an initial agreement with SSEN Transmission for the delivery of almost 300 new homes in the North of Scotland. The new homes will accommodate SSEN’s workforce as they deliver major projects to upgrade the electricity network grid and help to deliver UK energy security.

This is Springfield’s first agreement of this type, opening up a new income stream and unlocking the value of the landbank. This is a significant milestone for Springfield which clearly validates the strategic repositioning of the business to capitalise on the opportunity in the North of Scotland.

An accompanying trading update confirms that H1 trading was in line with management expectations.

We increase our Fair Value estimate to 160p (c.1.1x FY27 Price/ Book), reflecting the strategic importance of the deal and the unlocking of value in Springfield’s land bank. Link to research note (freely accessible) here:

Announces initial agreement with SSEN for delivery of c.300 new home in North of Scotland & confirms H1 trading in line. Increase fair value est. to 160p

03/12/2025

"Considerable untapped potential" - new initiation report *** Victorian Plumbing Group plc ***

Victorian Plumbing’s FY25 results illustrate the strength of its market-leading, profitable and cash-flow generative business. In this initiation report we review the group’s attractive investment thesis and conclude the 40% sell-off in the past 12 months significantly undervalues the group’s potential. We initiate coverage with a 110p Fair Value equating to 1.1x EV / Revenues, c.11x EV/EBITDA and a c.5% FCF yield (cal 2026).

Victorian Plumbing has navigated major changes, completing a £21m warehouse, acquiring Victoria Plum for £22.5m, and launching into homewares. FY25 revenues rose 5% to £310m with market share up to 21.5%, while adjusted PBT grew 5% to £24.3m despite cost pressures. The MFI relaunch shows promise with strong reviews and controlled start-up costs, supported by disciplined investment and robust cash flows.

We value the bathrooms business on 9x cal 2026 EV/EBITDA (implying over £330m EV, c.1x Revenues, nearly 100p per share) with the potential for the homewares business to be worth c.£45m (3x cal 2028 EV / Revenues), adding another c.15p per share. Hence, we see scope for a significant re-rating as confidence builds in management’s strategy.

Victorian Plumbing FY25: record £310m revenue, 21.5% UK share, strong cash flow, homewares launch, and 110p fair value highlighting growth potential.

25/11/2025

Norcros plc - Hiding in plain sight (H1 Results)

Margin progression, cash generation and dividend growth – as well as a material, post period end acquisition – were all notable features of H1 26. A sharpened and connected business portfolio with leading market positions, clear strategic growth drivers and demonstrable results are together delivering above sector performance against a generally subdued economic backdrop. The foundations are in place to continue to capture market share in a more favourable cyclical environment, though this is not currently factored in.

The company’s share price has performed well YTD (+c.18%), c.5% ahead of the FTSE All-Share Index and comfortably ahead of most of its sector peers. However, the re-rating has been minimal due to the earnings-enhancing FIBO deal. Closing sector peer discounts and realistic DCF profit assumptions both support higher valuations for Norcros. Taking an average of these two methods generates our increased fair value of 397p per share (around 30% above current share price). Link to research note (freely accessible):

Margin progression, cash generation and dividend growth – as well as a material, post period end acquisition – were all notable features of H1 26.

25/11/2025

Supreme plc - H1 26 results: diversified and resilient

For the six months to 30 September 2025 (H1 26), Supreme reported revenue of £132.6m, +17%YoY - reflecting both organic growth and the impact of acquisitions - gross profit (including forex) of £38.4m, +13%YoY, and (adj.) EBITDA of £18.5m (H1 25: £18.5m). The closing net debt position (non-IFRS16) was £4.1m, whilst the Group maintained its dividend policy (25% of net profit), recording an interim dividend of 1.6p/ share (H1 25: 1.8p/ share).

The Group reiterated its strategy of growth and product diversification driven by acquisition, noting a “robust M&A pipeline”. Post H1, the Group added an estimated £30m in annualised revenue via the acquisition of 1001 carpet care and SlimFast UK & Europe.

The planned introduction in the UK of the Va**ng Products Duty (VPD) from 1st October 2026, at a flat rate tax of £2.20 per 10ml of e-liquid, is designed to discourage youth va**ng and boost tax take. This development indicates the addition of c.£40m to Supreme Va**ng revenue but is matched by a commensurate increase in COGS. As a result, although our FY27 revenue line is inflated, the (adj.) EBIT and (adj.) EBITDA outlook remains unchanged. Based on a 5-year discounted cashflow analysis, our Fair Value remains 237p/ share. Link to full note:

Rev +17%, reiterates strategy of growth & product diversification driven by acquisition, & expects FY26 earnings to be in line with market expectations.

25/11/2025

5* strategy delivers another profit upgrade!

AO’s impressive H126 results show strategic, customer-focussed progress. 14% revenue growth reflects market share gains, and Adj. PBT rose 10% despite payroll cost headwinds. AO's differentiated 5* membership programme and sustained 5* customer service underpin its success, whilst improved profit trends in mobile and musicMagpie contribute to the positive outlook.

We raise our FY26E Adj. PBT and Adj. EPS by 4%-6% and forecast AO will generate over £150m cumulative FCF FY26E-FY28E and a 21% CAGR in Adj. EPS FY26E-FY28E. Yet it trades on only c.14x cal 2026 PER, falling to c.11x cal 2027 PER, which we believe significantly undervalues AO’s growth prospects. Our Fair Value / share increases for the second time in three months, from 160p to 170p (a cal 2026 FCF yield of c.5%). Link to full note (freely accessible) here:

Impressive H1 results; we increase our FY26E Adj PBT 6% to £50m, and raise our fair value for the second time in three months to 170p/ share.

18/11/2025

"Tatton AM delivers again: profit +20%, dividend +26%, strong outlook" - new research note with video summary freely accessible here: https://bit.ly/49qEcbk

After its Oct 25 trading update, we knew Tatton had maintained its exceptional growth momentum; Assets-Under-Management/ Influence (AUI) were up 18% over H1-26, and net flows remained strong at £281m/ month, above Tatton’s guidance for FY26 of £200-£250m/ month. In the post-results period, AUI growth has continued, up another 5% to £27.1bn on 14 Nov 25. YTD net flows have increased from £1.68bn over H1 to £2.07bn.

With more recent peer data becoming available, we now also know H1 growth and flows were far higher than all peers. And we know H1 growth has translated to an exceptionally strong set of financial results with revenue, profits and net cash all sharply up. Compared to peers, and especially given the macro environment, it is a truly impressive performance.

The balance sheet remains strong with no debt and net cash up 6% over H1 to £34.1m (after paying the final FY25 dividend of £5.7m). An interim dividend of 12.0p is proposed (+26%; H1-25: 9.5p).

We highlight that even after fully acknowledging current macro-economic headwinds and UK budget uncertainty, management’s outlook is strong. Near-term, Tatton has “confidence in delivering results in line with market expectations”. Longer-term, Tatton has “confidence in achieving the £30 billion AUM/I target by FY29”. We note Tatton is ahead of trajectory to deliver on that goal. Given current momentum, our FY26 forecasts probably look conservative. However, markets are volatile, and we err on the side of caution, maintaining our forecasts and fundamental value of 750p per share.

H1 growth translated into exceptionally strong results. FY26 forecasts look conservative but maintain our 750p/ share fair value given volatile markets.

17/11/2025

H1 growth tees Polar Capital Holdings up for very strong FY26 - new research (freely accessible) and video summary here: https://bit.ly/43xVejW

Polar’s +25% AUM growth rate over H1-26 was far stronger than all peers and almost five times the sector-median (page 4). AUM opened on 1 Apr 25 at £21.4bn, near the trough of the ‘tariff turmoil’ dip. It then jumped £5.3bn over H1 to £26.7bn, as markets recovered and Polar’s returns (+29%) beat broad market indexes by some distance (MSCI ACWI GBP: +15%). AUM has jumped another 6% between 30 Sep 25 and 7 Nov 25, and we raise our forecasts (page 15).

While average AUM of H1-26 was only 4% higher y-o-y, and revenue grew only 1% to £101.4m, H2-26 starts an AUM level 18% above H2-25 (£26.7bn v £22.7bn – page 9). This tees Polar up for very strong growth over FY26. We forecast full-year FY26 revenue to be c. 13% higher than FY25.

New CEO Iain Evans is confident in growth prospects and is especially bullish on building the US and Asian client base, adding to Polar’s strong European base (page 3). Improving net flows (page 8) and pipeline strength back up his assertion that interest in active management is returning. We believe quality, specialist active managers will always have a place - and Polar’s investment track record is outstanding (page 5 & 6). With AUM levels above previous forecasts and a strong outlook, we raise forecasts and our DCF fundamental valuation to 675p per share (page 16).

With AUM levels above previous forecasts and a strong outlook, we raise forecasts and our DCF fundamental valuation to 675p per share

13/11/2025

Eco Animal Health reports that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Veterinary Use (CVMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has adopted a Positive Opinion recommending the granting of EU marketing authorisation for ECOVAXXIN® MS, the EAH vaccine against Mycoplasma synoviae in poultry. The authorisation represents a significant step towards commercialisation.

CEO David Hallas commented: "We are delighted to have received a Positive Opinion from the CVMP for ECOVAXXIN MS …This marks an exciting time for the Company, with further submissions expected over the next 12 months for additional products from our R&D pipeline, underpinning ECO's next phase of growth."

Eco Animal Health expects the EMA to issue a marketing authorisation during the first quarter of 2026, so that the Group anticipates making ECOVAXXIN® MS commercially available in the European Union in the second half of 2026 (as expected and outlined in FY25 results). EAH submitted its Market Authorisation Application (MAA) for ECOVAXXIN® MS on 3 March 2025. During the coming 12 months we expect the Group to submit marketing authorisation requests for ECOVAXXIN® MS in additional geographies and make further submissions for vaccine products in its R&D pipeline, with eight projects prominent.

Our Fair Value remains 136p per share, indicative of 7.8x FY27E EV/EBITDA (3.4x currently). Link to our research note (freely accessible) with video summary: https://bit.ly/47D6DBt