Tim's Wealth Letter

01/09/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Tuesday 1st September

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.1%. The US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month, with American air strikes on Larak Island inside the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian drones sent at Gulf states in reply. Oil pushed above $86. Dearer energy feeds straight into the inflation numbers, and traders raised their bets on a September rate rise.

Both indices still closed out August higher, the S&P up more than 2.5% on the month and the Nasdaq more than 3.5%.

Oil is up again this morning, just over $86. US futures are flat.

ISM manufacturing lands at 3pm today. The August jobs report comes Friday, the last one before the Fed meets on the 16th.

In our portfolio, Alibaba fell 4.1%, now 38% below its 52-week high. It is still sliding on last week's $10.2bn share sale and the AI spending behind it.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

31/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Monday 31st August

On Friday the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.5%, on Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair. He said inflation is running too high and that price stability comes before everything else. Traders had been pricing about a one-in-three chance of a September rate rise. By the close it was a coin flip.

Then on Sunday the US bombed Iranian rocket launchers caught preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is up 2.7% this morning at just under $86. Higher energy goes straight into the inflation numbers Warsh has just promised to keep fighting. US futures are marginally lower.

ISM manufacturing lands tomorrow. The August jobs report is Friday.

In our portfolio, PayPal fell 12.7% on Friday to $53.66 after Advent and Stripe walked away. The board had rejected their $60.50 a share as too low. The shares are now 11.3% below the offer it turned down.

Generac fell 6.8%.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

28/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Friday 28th August

Yesterday the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Nvidia rallied 8.7% after forecasting revenue up about 70% next fiscal year.

US futures are slightly lower this morning, the Nasdaq down 0.3%, with everyone waiting on Kevin Warsh’s first speech as Fed chair at 3pm today. Traders are pricing about a one-in-three chance of a September rate rise.

In our portfolio, PayPal fell about 12% after hours. Advent and Stripe have dropped their pursuit, Bloomberg reports. The board had rejected their $60.50 a share as inadequate. The shares closed yesterday at $61.47, above the bid.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

27/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Thursday 27th August

Yesterday the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both finished a fraction lower, with everyone waiting on Nvidia. July's core inflation came in as expected, prices up 0.2% on the month, and traders trimmed the odds of a September rate hike.

Nvidia delivered after the close. Revenue of $96.2bn, more than double a year ago, data centre sales up 117%, and guidance of about $108bn for this quarter. The shares rose 4.7% after hours and US futures are up, the Nasdaq 0.7%.

Jackson Hole starts today, with Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed chair at 3pm tomorrow.

In our portfolio, Comstock Resources rose 2.3% as natural gas gained 2.4% on forecasts of a hotter start to September. Generac rose 2.4%.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

26/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Wednesday 26th August

Yesterday the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.7%. The driver was oil. Iran has restarted talks with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, crude fell more than 3%, and long Treasury yields came down with it. Cheaper energy takes the heat out of the inflation numbers, and that is the worry that has been sitting on this market all month.

Oil is down again this morning, a third straight fall, just under $81. US futures point slightly lower ahead of Nvidia, which reports after the close tonight.

Core PCE inflation lands at 1:30 pm today. Jackson Hole starts tomorrow, with Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed chair on Friday.

In our portfolio, QXO rose 3.3% and Pfizer 2.2%.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

21/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Friday 21st August

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq 1%. Treasury yields turned back up despite the government's debt buyback, on doubts it is anything more than a temporary fix. Rising oil added to the inflation worry, with the US and Iran still deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil is steady near $86 this morning. US futures point marginally higher.

Flash PMIs land at 2:45 pm today. Next week brings Jackson Hole, with Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed chair on Friday and core PCE the same morning.

In our portfolio, Alibaba rose 1.3% after reporting. Profit fell more than 75% as capital spending hit $10bn in the quarter. The shares were down 4% before the open, then finished up as cloud revenue growth accelerated to 45%.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

20/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Thursday 20th August

Yesterday the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both rise 0.2%. The Fed's July minutes came out and showed three officials had wanted a rate rise, with others saying tightening would probably be needed if inflation doesn't come down. Stocks went up anyway, led by healthcare. Futures point marginally higher this morning. Oil keeps climbing, Brent above $92 on Middle East tensions.

Alibaba reports before the US open today, the only one of ours this week. Flash PMI figure tomorrow.

In the TWL portfolio, Estee Lauder jumped 16.3%. Sales of $3.6bn beat, earnings doubled, and it lifted its margin outlook for next year, ending three straight years of falling revenue. Exactly the sort of turnaround our portfolio targets. More to come.

Pfizer rose 3.6% to a 52-week high, pulled up by the mRNA news through its BioNTech stake. QXO up 4.5%, Canada Goose 3.1% and Disney 2.9%.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

19/08/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Wednesday 19th August

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 0.69% and the Nasdaq 1.33%, a third straight loss. Chipmakers led it down, but the driver was bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, Japan's 10-year a three-decade high, German 30-year bunds their highest since 2011. Higher long yields hit the most expensive stocks hardest, and that is the AI trade.

Asia took it far worse overnight. South Korea's Kospi fell 5.8% and tripped its circuit breaker as SK Hynix and Samsung were dumped. Japan's Nikkei lost 2.9%. US futures are flat this morning, so Wall Street isn't following. Crude sits at $85.

FOMC minutes tonight, then flash PMIs and jobless claims Thursday. Advance Auto Parts reports Thursday before the open, our only holding due.

In the TWL portfolio, Alibaba rose 2.8% after Alipay launched an AI agent platform for merchants. Etsy gained 2.0% with no news of its own.

Strategies & current holdings are available on the Tim's Wealth Letter website.

16/08/2026

Berkshire Hathaway spent about $4.5 billion buying its own shares last quarter. Buybacks are one of the biggest forces acting on your money, and almost nobody explains what they actually do — so here it is in plain English.

When a company buys its own shares, it cancels them. They stop existing.

Say a company has 100 shares and makes £100 of profit. That's £1 per share. Now it buys back 10 of them. There are 90 shares left and the profit is still £100 — so that's £1.11 per share.

You didn't buy anything. You didn't do anything at all. But your slice of the profits just went up 11%, because there are fewer people to share it with.

A dividend gives you cash. A buyback gives you a bigger share of the business.

The catch: it only works if the company pays less for the shares than they're worth. If it overpays, it's burned your money — and plenty of companies buy back at silly prices because it flatters their per-share figures.

A buyback only works if the company pays less than the shares are worth. Plenty don't, so don't assume it's always a good thing.

This week's letter, in full:

Warren Buffett called Google his biggest miss for 20 years. In June, Berkshire put $10bn into Alphabet — here's why, and what it means for UK investors.

15/08/2026

Warren Buffett has spent about twenty years telling anyone who asked that missing Google was the worst call he ever made.

And he had every advantage. He knew the founders. He also owned GEICO, the American car insurer, which was one of Google's earliest big advertisers — paying Google ten or eleven dollars every single time somebody clicked one of its adverts.

He owned the company writing the cheques. He just never thought to buy the company cashing them.

In June he put that right. Berkshire put $10 billion into Alphabet, taking its stake to around $31 billion.

Here's the part I find useful, though. He sat on nearly $400 billion in cash for three and a half years while people queued up to say he'd lost his touch. He wasn't dithering. He simply couldn't find anything worth buying — and the moment he could, he moved fast.

Sitting in cash because you can't find anything you like is a decision. Sitting in cash because you've never got round to it isn't.

This week's letter, in full:

Warren Buffett called Google his biggest miss for 20 years. In June, Berkshire put $10bn into Alphabet — here's why, and what it means for UK investors.