19/03/2026
π¦ Bank of England HOLDS base rate at 3.75%. The Iran war just rewrote the script.
Three weeks ago the market was pricing in an 86% chance of a cut today. That is gone. The MPC voted unanimously to hold, and frankly nobody with a pulse and a petrol receipt is surprised. Brent crude is surging, UK gas prices are up as much as 75%, and the Bank's own economists now project inflation could hit 3.5% in the coming months, possibly 4%. The 2% target is a distant memory.
What does this mean for borrowers? π
If your fixed rate is ending soon, do not wait. Lenders have repriced aggressively, with some mortgage rates climbing nearly 1% in just 10 days. That is the sharpest shift since the Ukraine crisis in 2022. Every day you delay could cost you more than you expect. The property market is already weakening, and a protracted conflict could push house prices down this summer.
π Key numbers:
π Base rate held at 3.75%
π Inflation forecast: 3.5%-4% (previously expected to hit 2% target)
π Oil prices up ~20% since conflict began
π Some mortgage rates up nearly 1% in 10 days
π Next MPC decision: end of April
What about savers?
Higher rates for longer sounds good on paper. But if inflation reaches 4%, your real returns are shrinking. Banks are also notoriously faster at raising borrowing costs than improving savings rates. Do not assume you are winning here.
What happens next?
If energy prices stay elevated, the Bank will likely hold through summer. Cuts may not arrive until late 2026 at the earliest. There was even discussion at today's meeting about whether rates might need to go up. That is not a prediction, but it tells you how uncertain this landscape is. "Higher for longer" is firmly back on the table.
The era of cheap credit is not returning any time soon. If you have a mortgage decision to make, the best time to act is now.
Dariusz Karpowicz, Director at Albion Financial Advice commented:
"The Bank held rates and the only people surprised are the ones who haven't checked oil prices lately. A fortnight ago we were all pricing in cuts; now the MPC is frozen in place watching energy costs climb and inflation risk rebuild. The UK economy needed a boost, not a standstill, but you cannot cut rates when the cost of everything from petrol to heating is heading one way.
If you are sitting on a fixed rate ending soon, act quickly. Lenders are repricing at speed and waiting for cheaper deals could cost you more than it saves. Nobody knows when this settles, but 'higher for longer' is back on the table whether we like it or not."
YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE OR ANY OTHER DEBT SECURED ON IT.