20/05/2025
H1 in 2025, to say has been unpredictable would be an understatement.
Markets, as expected, reacted with huge volatility with Trump's annoucement of global tariffs, specific increased tariffs on Chinese imports, carve-outs, more increased tariffs on Chinese imports, trade deals, again a further increase on tariffs for Chinese imports and a decrease in tariffs for Chinese imports.
The majority of equity markets ended April more-or-less where they began it, neutralising the turmoil that ensued over the month. Volatility rose higher following US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, with a declaration of sweeping tariffs on US trading partners. Named as “reciprocal” tariffs; a minimum 10% levied on all countries, and additional levies on those with which the US has a trade deficit. Stock markets tumbled on the news, the S&P 500 tumbling more than 12% over four days.
Equities soon recovered with the Trump administration showing willingness to negotiate deals to roll back levies, if counterparties ended what the US president cited as unfair trade practices. April 9th, a post on Trump’s Truth Social stating a pause to the reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline, with the S&P 500 seeing its biggest one-day gain since 2008, climbing 9.5%. The cause for this appeared to be the US Treasury market, where bond yields sharply rose.
President Trump has repeatedly said he is rebuilding wealth based on decades or even a century into the future, and this cannot be measured in very short-term results of America's stock market giants.
Next to comments from his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the White House was communicating to markets that Trump now has tolerance for short-term market and economic pain. This suggesting this relatively short-term market dip isn't over and that it won't take a lot for further volatility.