Trend Following Trading Academy

01/05/2020

Here is one to go short with.

In a temporary bear re-bounce market, Burberry moved up just like everything else but it is now moving back down again.

It has recently tried to break back above the 50 days MA line from below but failed. The price now continue to move south.

Fundamentally, given the covid-19 induce lock-down around the world, I just can't how any luxury brand is able to even maintain its sales let alone increase it. Now that some part of the world begin to emerge from the lock-down, people in general will be more concerns with keeping or finding a job to put food on the table and no one, except the very rich people, will have the means to purchase such high-end product. Even the rich middle-class Chinese population this British brand is focusing on is not going to escape from this. In addition, if UK is going to follow US to try to force the Chinese government to pay for damage caused by the covid-19 lock-down, this will only push the Chinese people to dislike brands from both of these countries and will reduce or not even buy things from them due to nationalism.

From the trend following point of view, the short them trend also down, and MACD histogram is not able to break back above the zero line.

So long the share price stay below the 1445 to 1450 area I will either stay away from this share or go short on it.

Enjoy the ride and stay safe!

17/02/2020

While going through my daily analysis last night I came across Starbucks (SBUX) which seem to be showing a very interesting setup.

It has suffered a lot lately due to the corona-virus in China with many of its shops staying shut over there but the shock seems to have been absorbed into share price already and it is now above both 50 days and 200 days simple moving average lines (my long term system) and above my 2ATR line (my short term system), plus the fact that the MACD histogram indicator has also turned blue which indicates the Bulls are in control and is ready to a more upward trend/movement.

Providing the share price stay above the 50 days moving average, currently at $88.57, on a end-of-day basis, it look like it is time to get back into Starbucks once more.

Happy Trading :)

02/12/2019

In my weekly sample trading portfolio update podcast, which went out last night, I said that Amazon share price may be facing a bit of an issue.

This is because the price has show a classic up-n-down railing track pattern and couple with the fact that the share price has failed to stay back above the 200 days moving average (currently at around $1813)

From my experience if a share price show this type of pattern it has a very high probability that price will go down a lot if the price failed to go back and stay above the top of railing track pattern (currently at around 1824).

Then when the US market opened a couple of hours ago, the Amazon share price gone down by more than $30 very quickly.

Providing the share price stay below $1824, I will remain a seller on Amazon.

Happy Trading!

PS. Here is the link to my podcast from last night -

Here is my weekly update on my sample trading portfolio. For more trading information and advise please visits: Online - https://www.trendfollowingtradingacademy.org On Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/trendfollowingtraingacademy On Twitter - https://twitter.com/VictorC79619164 On Instagram - htt...

26/11/2019

According to my short-term 2ATR cross-over trend following system, the Japanese index Nikkei 22,5 has given a sell signal last Thursday ( 21st Nov) by breaching the 2ATR stop-loss line. Also the MACD histogram has turned red on 14th Nov which tells us that the moment of the upward trend has reversed which support the 2ATR signal change.

In the short term Nikkei 225 is a sell to me unless it can break back and closed above 23482 area.

Happy trading! :)

24/11/2019

Look like Bitcoin has gone back into bearish mode and the price is now below both 50 days and 200 days moving averages. My short term 2ATR system has already been given a bearish signal since last Monday (18th Nov).

There is also a downward channel which does not help the price either.

So long as Bitcoin stays below the 200 days ma line at 8007, I will remain a seller on this one.

Happy trading! :)

18/11/2019

Just like Amazon, McDonald's price chart doesn't look good either - the share is below both 50 days and 200 days moving averages and my short term 2ATR system has already given a sell signal since mid Oct.

I have mentioned this in my weekly podcast update on my sample share portfolio a couple of weeks ago.

The only saving grace is that the standard MACD histogram has turn blue which means that in the short term there is some strength left yet in the share price and the price may move up to test the 200 days moving average line from below at around $200 mark, and if the movement is really strong it may even go as high as to test the 50 days moving average from below at around $204 area. But the share price must first show that it has strength to break back above the 2ATR line at around $198.50 area.

Just like Amazon, McDonald's is a well run company and when the 3 major indices in US is making new highs one should think that McDonald's share price should be going up as well but it isn't which is puzzling.

Either these two giants are having issues in general internally (which McDonald has recently) or that the market is wrong. The alternative is that these giants are telling us something is wrong in the market in general and the share prices in these companies are given us advance warnings!

In any case, I am staying short on McDonald's unless it has broken back above the $198.5 mark.

Happy trading!
:)

18/11/2019

With all 3 US major indices (Dow/Nasdaq/S&P 500) continue making new highs in the past few of weeks, it is difficult to see/understand why one of the biggest star in the tech sector is not making hay when the sun is out.

Looking at Amazon price chart one can see it has been trading sideways more or less for the past 4 months, which does not match what is going on in the general market.

My 2ATR short term system has given a sell signal last Friday and the share price is also below both 50 days and 200 days moving averages. Plus the fact that the standard MACD histogram indicator is also showing red for the last 3 sessions as well.

This means that providing the share price stay below the 50 days moving average at around $1171 area on an end-of-day basis, I will remain a seller on Amazon.

I just hope that Black Friday sales gives Amazon a push upwards, otherwise if the sales is also not as good as expected, this share will be going down south very very quickly indeed

Happy trading! :)

17/11/2019

Just posted my weekly sample portfolio update podcast on Anchor and came across the DAX price chart which is looking great currently but there is slight wiggle in the standard MACD histogram indicator which show a couple of small red bar from last Thursday and Friday.
The index itself has been going up for the last couple of months but the momentum is now slowing hence the red MACD histogram.
This is not a sell signal yet but is an indication that the German stock market may be facing some headwind and its upward movement is slowing down and is likely to go side way for now.

On a similar not, the Japanese index, Nikkei 225, is also showing the same issue.

I am keeping an eye on these two for now!

Happy trading! :)

16/10/2019

Another possible sell trade - NetFlix.

The price has been hoovering under the 50 days moving average line around $288 area for the last couple of trading sessions. This is despite Nasdaq and Dow Jones has been rallying lately. This doesn't reflect well for the share.

So long the share price continue to stay below the $288 mark at an end-of-day basis I will remain a seller on this share.

Happy Trading!

16/10/2019

Another possible sell trade from me and this time it is the great & mighty Amazon.

The price has rallied lately along with the rally in both Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices but it look like it is running out of steam.

The price is trying to break back above the 50 days simple moving average line at around $178 area today but it is not looking good. The price went up by about $10 in the opening just moments ago and it has since fallen back down again.

So long the price stay below the 50 days simple moving average (below 178 area) at an end-of day-basis I think this has the setup of a profitable short/sell trade.

Happy Trading! :)

16/10/2019

Here is my latest buy trade - Tesla.

Currently the price has just broken back above both 50 days and 200 days simple moving average lines and has been above the 200 days simple moving average for a couple of days now. Also, my short term 2ATR system has already given a buy signal on 26th Sept. On top of that, it look like we have a short term uptrend line supporting the share as well.

So long Tesla stay above the 200 days simple moving average line, currently at around $255.60 area, at an end-of-day basis I will be long on this share.

Happy trading! :)

08/10/2019

This is one of my discretionary play.

There is a large rising wedge formation in Apple chart and yesterday the share price tries to break higher but failed which left a large pivotal point / shooting star in the chart.

With the slowing down in economy across US, Europe, and Asia and the trade war between US and China, I don't see how the share price can continue to go any higher for the time being. However, you will never know what the market want to do next.

Also, the share price was around $233.50 mark in early Oct last year and then it tumble down. Will history repeat itself.

All-in-all I think there is a good chance that the share price may drop back down to at least the bottle of the rising wedge formation line at around $202 mark, and if this breaks as well then the price may fall back down all the way to the bottom of the whole rising wedge formation at around £150 last seen at the start of 2019.

So long the share price stay below £229.93 on an end of day basis, I will stay as a seller on Apple.

Have fun!
:)