Data Driven Stocks

Data Driven Stocks Two PhD degrees, extensive market knowledge, not only charting - but but also option flows, macro-economy, bonds and politics. I love posting political memes.

08/08/2026

Most out of topic image of this week - a wave function propagation of an electron around a proton

08/08/2026

Every market this year is extraordinary, including Britain's FTSE

08/04/2026

The number of peace deals with Iran increases everyday, while oil reacts to it.

07/25/2026

Britain is growing faster (at least per real GDP growth metric) than any other G7 economy and paying more to borrow than at any time since 1998.

The 30-year gilt hit 5.79% in May, above the 5.10% peak of the 2022 mini-budget panic, and Brent hit $138 in April, the highest since 2008. GDP still grew 0.6% in Q1, the best in the G7, while 1.01 million young people sit outside work, education and training, the first time above a million since 2013.

07/19/2026

What it means short gamma (negative gamma) versus long gamma (positive gamma) ?

How does it change the market ?

P.S. new music 😂

US prices FELL 0.4% in June.PS. New music for old followersSounds like victory. Then you check how rare that is.951 mont...
07/18/2026

US prices FELL 0.4% in June.

PS. New music for old followers

Sounds like victory. Then you check how rare that is.

951 monthly CPI prints since 1947. Only 17 ever fell this hard. The full list: the 1948-50 postwar bust, the 1986 oil crash, Katrina's wake, three months of 2008 (incl. the all-time record, -1.8% in Nov), the 2015 oil crash, two Covid lockdown months.

And now June 2026.

In 79 years, a month like this has never come from calm, healthy disinflation. It comes from something breaking. This time it was oil: gasoline is 4% of the CPI basket, fell 9.7%, and delivered -0.39pp of a -0.4% print. One small bar did all of it.

Another catch: the ceasefire that crushed crude is already dead. WTI closed $70.56 on Jun 30, $79.20 by Jul 13. AAA pump price back at $3.99 and climbing.

07/18/2026

Can the stock market print inflation? We ran the numbers.

Every $1 of stock wealth turns into about 3.2 cents of new consumer spending every single year (Harvard/AER 2021). Sounds tiny, until you see the pile: US households now hold $64.8 trillion in stocks. The last 12 months alone added $8.9T of equity wealth - roughly $284B a year of extra spending, about 1.3% of all US consumption. The market is a demand machine.

And the machine kept growing for 40 years. Stocks were 9.5% of household financial assets at the 1982 low, 38.7% at the dot-com peak, 45.8% today. The three highest readings in 80 years of Fed data are the last three quarters. That is what makes 2026 extraordinary - the wealth channel from Wall Street to your grocery bill has never been this wide.

The arrow points both ways though. In 2022, 9.1% inflation crushed stocks -19.4%. And since 1994 a 10% market drop has predicted 32bp of Fed cuts by the next meeting, 127bp within a year. Falling markets reload the machine through easier money.

Half of it sits in 1% of hands, CPI is still at 3.5%, and the S&P closed Friday 2% off its record. Watch the market like a macro force, not a scoreboard.

07/17/2026

US prices just FELL.

June CPI: −0.4% - the biggest monthly drop since the 2020 lockdowns.

But generally inflation is still high!

07/16/2026

Hormuz shut and East Asia went straight for the reserves. Japan's biggest drawdown ever, a record 22.46M bbl pledge from Korea, 400M from the IEA - more than its five previous rescues combined. China stopped buying and sat on 1.24B bbl. Now it has to buy it all back.

07/15/2026

Apple held the iPhone Pro at $999 through 9.1% inflation. Cut the MacBook Air $100 when CPI ran 2.4%. Then hiked 17 products +21% overnight with CPI at 3.5%.

But now Apple did price hikes by +20% on average across all products.

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