Spystream, 10 Rue DES BUGADIERES, Grabels (2026)

29/11/2024

Japanese yen rallies amid expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike

The yen received support from strong inflation data out of Japan

The yen extended its rally versus the U.S. dollar, reaching a six-week peak on Friday, prompted by unexpectedly high inflation rates in Tokyo that bolstered expectations for a potential Bank of Japan interest rate increase next month.

Amid reduced trading activity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the dollar declined against major currencies. The USD index has been losing ground since the start of the week, staying on the defensive on Friday after touching 105.62, its lowest since November 12.

The dollar has experienced a decline since it reached a two-year high against major rivals roughly a week ago. Nevertheless, it is projected to secure a more than 2% increase in November, following its over 3% rise last month.

This robust performance can largely be attributed to Donald Trump’s decisive election victory on November 5, which raised expectations for significant fiscal spending, higher tariffs, and stricter border controls, all perceived as inflationary by economists. This week, however, the dollar index is expected to drop by 1.5%, marking its largest weekly decline since mid-August.

Best performance since late July

The yen showed a strong recovery, poised for around 3% gains, potentially marking its best performance since late July. The falling U.S. Treasury bond yields added to the dollar’s losses, while safe-haven flows amid Trump’s widespread tariff warnings this week, combined with increased speculation of a BOJ rate hike next month, have bolstered the yen. Currently, traders estimate a nearly 60% chance of a quarter-point rate increase.

Adding to the upbeat tone surrounding the yen, the data showed that Tokyo’s core consumer price index increased by 2.2% in November on a yearly basis versus the expected rise of a 2.1% rise and a 1.8% increase in the previous month.

30/10/2024

Bitcoin at four-month highs as US election nears

Market participants view bitcoin as a so-called «Trump trade», driving prices north

The price of bitcoin has been rallying for the fourth session in a row on Tuesday, challenging the $71,000 figure after the recent break above the $70,000 psychological level for the first time since June. The buying pressure has persisted since last month, with bulls staying in the game as the US Presidential election nears.

The rally is mostly driven by investments in exchange-traded funds and speculation surrounding the upcoming US election as many market participants view bitcoin as a so-called «Trump trade» as the Republican presidential nominee actively supports digital assets during his campaign. Trump continued to lead in prediction markets, fueling demand for BTC and other digital currencies. Harris, meanwhile, has proposed a more cautious approach, advocating for a regulatory framework.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been also supported by rising US stocks. Wall Street equities saw a positive start to the week, with the Nasdaq Composite approaching its all-time high set in July amid solid gains in tech stocks.

Bitcoin shrugs off Tether news

Interestingly, the pre-election rush helped bitcoin shrug off the recent scrutiny of Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer. Last week, there were reports that U.S. federal authorities are still scrutinizing Tether, triggering speculations about the possibility of ongoing criminal investigations involving Tether’s activities.

In the near term, bitcoin must stay above $70,000 to target its March record of $73,798. After refreshing four-month highs around $71,500, the BTCUSD pair has settled around the $71,000 mark, deciding on a further direction.

So far this year, bitcoin has increased by 70%, staying resilient despite reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in November after a 0,5% cut in September.

30/10/2024

4 reasons to stay bullish on gold

Prices could target the $2,700 figure next

Both spot gold and futures contracts continue to refresh all-time highs these days. The December futures jumped to new tops above $2,660, rallying for the ninth month in a row already. Despite the overbought conditions, the precious metal's short- and medium-term outlook remains positive. There are several reasons to stay bullish on gold at this stage.

First, bullion would benefit from rate cuts by global central banks. Last week, the Fed finally joined its counterparts to announce the easing of its monetary policy. Furthermore, the central bank cut the interest rate by 50 basis points. Further cuts would bolster the appeal of the yellow metal.

Second, the US dollar will likely continue to lose its ground, adding to demand for non-yielding gold. The USD index slipped to mid-2023 lows last week, and the bearish tone could persist in the coming months as the Federal Reserve has just reversed the course of its policy. The USD index may get below the 100.00 psychological level in the near term amid speculations about a dovish Fed.

Third, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and globally could persist in the medium term, with the continuing US-China trade war adding to investor worries. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, demand for safe-haven gold stays elevated. So, this driver is likely to support bullion further.

Finally, recession concerns could reemerge should US economic data continue to deteriorate. In the eurozone, the incoming signals are not positive as well. Fresh data showed on Monday that both eurozone and German PMIs, both in the services and manufacturing, continued to decline in September, which could add to global worries and thus give extra bullish momentum to gold.

Now that gold prices have settled above $2,600, a decisive break above the $2,660 immediate barrier would bring the $2,700 figure into focus for the first time. Spot gold, meanwhile, climbed to $2,600 to register fresh tops around $2,640, also shifting investor attention to the $2,700 level.

09/08/2024

The battered dollar tries to keeps self-control

Recovery from January lows looks uneven and indecisive

The US dollar posted early-2024 lows at the start of the week, but managed to stage some recovery since then. The USD index found a bottom slightly above the 102.00 handle where dip buyers reemerged. After a three-day bounce, however, the greenback came back under pressure on Friday, struggling to extend the ascent amid rising expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September more aggressively than expected earlier.

During the previous session, the dollar gave up some intraday gains due to stronger-than-expected data on US jobless claims. Initial claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending August 3 to come in lower than the expected 240,000.

Stocks turned positive to see their best day since 2022 after the release, so risk demand capped the buck’s recovery attempts. As the report showed fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits, investor worries about the health of the economy have faded after the recent panic selling.

USD struggles as Fed is getting closer to cutting rates

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid highlighted he’s not ready to support a cut in interest rates so far, as inflation remains above target and the labor market still healthy despite some signs of cooling. However, the USD index failed to gain any support from relatively hawkish comments as a September rate cut is seen by markets as a done deal.

In the near term, the US currency is unlikely to see any sustained and decisive rebound, with downside risks persisting as Fed policy remains in focus. The USD index now needs to hold above the 103.00 figure in order to avoid another retreat in the days to come. On the weekly charts, the greenback is nearly unchanged, with the immediate significant upside target coming at 103.55.

Should the selling pressure intensify, the 102.00 support zone could be derailed in the weeks to come. The dollar last traded below this figure in late 2023. On the upside, a decisive recovery above 104.50 would improve the near-term outlook for the greenback. However, so far, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

17/07/2024

What’s behind bitcoin’s recovery?

The cryptocurrency market sees roller coaster ride

After finding a bottom around more than four-month lows earlier in July, the bitcoin price bounced, extending recovery for the sixth day in a row. The coin saw a low of $53,700 before reversing north as buyers have finally reemerged on a solid dip. Since then, the BTCUSD pair has regained the $60,000 handle to reach nearly one-month highs in the $66,000 area on July 17th.

The sell-off was driven mainly by the news that the German government completed the sale of its remaining BTC holdings, while defunct exchange Mt. Gox moved over 47,000 BTC to a new wallet, potentially preparing for creditor repayments.

After digesting the news, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization managed to shrug off the recent weakness and saw a clear breakout from a bearish trend, with the $70,000 psychological level coming back into focus as market sentiment has improved due to a number of factors.

Bullish drivers

First, the cryptocurrency market is boosted by Trump’s rising chances of winning the November presidential election after last week’s assassination attempt. Of note, Trump, who has recently positioned himself as the crypto-friendly candidate, is scheduled to speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville later this month. His bullish tone could add to upbeat sentiment in the market.

Second, there are solid market inflows after several weeks of net outflows. By the way, yesterday, the 11 U.S.-listed ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $422.5 million, the highest single-day volume since early June.

Third, investor confidence was boosted by a bullish outlook from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who has rethought his previous skeptic views on BTC and now refers to the digital coin as digital gold.

In the near term, bitcoin could extend the ascent, targeting the $70,000 level. A decisive break above $66,000 would pave the way towards the $67,350 intermediate resistance. Earlier in the day, the digital currency saw a local barrier around $66,200 before trimming intraday gains as the bullish momentum has been slowing since Tuesday.

28/06/2024

Gold lacks bullish momentum

XAUUSD briefly derailed the $2,300 region earlier in the week before bouncing

After three months of solid gains, gold looks set to finish June nearly unchanged. Last month, the precious metal advanced to fresh all-time highs around $2,465 and has been lacking the upside momentum since then. The XAUUSD pair briefly derailed the $2,300 region earlier in the week before bouncing back to the $2,340 area that has been capping gains this week.

The bullion looks cautious ahead of a key US inflation report that will affect investor sentiment across the markets. The PCE data is significant for rate-cut expectations as this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Should the index come in higher than expected, a stronger dollar may hit gold ahead of the weekend.

The US dollar is back in the green after yesterday’s slide. The USD index keeps treading water around the 106.00 figure, thus staying in the area of early-May highs. At the current levels, the dollar looks set to finish the fourth bullish week in a row. On the upside, the immediate target arrives at the 106.13 figure that has been capping gains this week.

Gold faces local barrier

In general, XAUUSD looks steady, trading within a relatively tight trading range this month. The yellow metal now needs to make a decisive break above $2,340 in order to retarget the $2,370 region that capped gains last week.

On the downside, a failure to overcome the mentioned barrier could attract renewed selling pressure in the days to come. If so, gold may retest the $2,300 psychological support, a break below which would pave the way to a deeper retreat. Should the yellow metal struggle to hold above $2,285, the $2,240 region will come back into the market focus for the first time since late-March.

26/06/2024

Oil vulnerable as demand concerns persist

A real estate crisis deepens in China, adding to worries

Oil prices came under renewed selling pressure after another failed attempt to hold above the $86 earlier in the week. Brent crude saw a solid bearish gap at the open on Wednesday before bouncing back to the $85 figure where the futures closed during the previous session. As such, oil briefly slid to weekly lows in the $84 zone where the futures managed to attract some demand.

Still, Brent crude remains volatile and vulnerable to fresh losses as demand-related concerns continue to persist, especially as China continues to face its ailing property sector. In particular, a real estate crisis deepened with a Hong Kong court ordering the liquidation of property giant China Evergrande.

Elsewhere, data from the American Petroleum Institute overnight showed that US oil inventories grew by around 0.9 million barrels last week versus expectations for a 3-million-barrel drawdown after a 2.3-million-barrel build the prior week. The figures suggest that US fuel demand remains sluggish despite the summer driving season, thus adding to market concerns.

$85 in focus

Also, oil feels the pressure from a stronger US dollar. After finding support around the 105.35 figure during the previous session, the dollar bounced from local lows, targeting the 106.00 barrier on Wednesday.

The technical picture looks neutral, however, at least as long as Brent crude holds above the $82 figure. Should the futures manage to overcome the $85 level in the near term, the outlook will improve somehow, while traders will shift their focus back to the $86 key barrier on the way towards the $90 psychological level last seen in April. However, as demand concerns continue to dominate the market, oil prices are unlikely to stage a sustained and strong rally any time soon, with downside risks persisting at this stage.

21/06/2024

Bitcoin needs a decisive bounce

BTCUSD is back below the $65,000 figure, with near-term outlook worsening

The bitcoin price has been trending lower for two weeks already, retreating from local highs seen just below the $72,000 handle earlier in the month. After a failed attempt to settle above $66,000 during the previous session, the BTCUSD pair is back below the $65,000 figure on Friday, with the $64,000 mark acting as a key near-term support at this stage.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization struggles to attract renewed demand at this stage, with downside pressure persisting these days, shifting market focus away from the $70,000 psychological level which has turned back into resistance.

The digital coin saw failed bullish attempts after MicroStrategy announced that the company had bought 11,931 BTC at an average cost of $786 million. MicroStrategy currently holds 226,331 BTC on its balance sheet worth approximately $8.33 billion.

In the near term, a recovery above the $65,000 handle is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend. If the price stays below this figure on a daily and weekly closing basis, the near-term technical outlook for BTC will deteriorate further. A failure to hold above $64,000 would add to bearishness surrounding the coin.

Strong USD caps gains

In a wider picture, bitcoin remains within a broader bullish trend, albeit suffers losses this month after strong gains witnessed in May. Should the recovery momentum reemerge any time soon, the leading cryptocurrency will retarget the $70,000 psychological level. The near-term outlook remains bearish while below this barrier.

In part, a stronger dollar caps potential bounce in BTC. The greenback keeps trending north after yesterday’s rally as risk-off tone dominates global financial markets. The USD index extended gains to fresh early-May highs in the 105.86 area earlier today. Should the bullish bias persist in the days to come, the greenback may challenge the 106.00 barrier for the first time in nearly two months.

19/06/2024

Gold hesitates to make a decisive breakout

The $2,300 zone acts as a key support on the way to local lows

Gold prices retain a modest bullish bias, looking resilient after an ascent witnessed on Tuesday. The bullion seems to have partially shrugged off the recent bearish pressure, with $2,300 representing the intermediate significant support on the way to local lows.

Now, the XAUUSD pair needs some momentum to make a more decisive bounce, with prices struggling to attract more decisive demand so far today. The downside potential looks limited at this stage, however, as the dollar looks steady these days.

The US currency finished unchanged overnight, staying unbiased today, with volatility ebbing these days. Late last week, the greenback briefly rallied to early-May highs in the 105.80 area due to a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed before retreating partially amid some profit-taking.

Indecisive dollar helps

This week, the dollar has settled above the 105.00 figure, struggling for direction after a slide witnessed at the start of the week. During the previous session, the dollar extended losses towards the 105.13 zone before bouncing marginally. The USD index turned slightly bullish in recent trading, but lacks the momentum so far, thus fueling some demand surrounding the yellow metal.

On the weekly timeframes, the technical picture has barely changed, with wider picture remaining upbeat after reaching fresh all-time highs. On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $2,350 zone, followed by the $2,360 region that capped gains last week. Downside risks look limited while above the $2,300 figure.

In the medium term, gold will continue to take clues from speculations surrounding the Fed policy outlook, with rate cut expectations keeping the bullion afloat. Of note, slowing US retail sales bolstered rate cut chances, adding to upbeat tone surrounding gold.

14/06/2024

Oil tries to retain bullishness

The market is supported by weak US inflation numbers

Bullish bias has been dominating the oil market for more than a week already, albeit the momentum has slowed these days. Brent crude saw this week’s highs in the $83.35 area before retreating partially. On Friday, oil futures struggle for direction, holding slightly above the $82 handle.

In part, oil prices struggle to see a mode decisive ascent due to a stronger dollar. The USD index extended the ascent to the 105.55 zone for the first time in over a month, holding onto the upper end of the extended trading range ahead of the weekend. The greenback remains bullish due to a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed this week, shrugging off weaker-than-expected inflation numbers.

Of note, fresh data showed that US producer price inflation marked the largest monthly decrease since October last month, dropping 0.2% against estimates for an increase of 0.1%. A separate report showed that weekly jobless claims rose to its highest level in 10 months last week, with 242,000 people applying for unemployment. Those numbers make it more likely the Fed could start cutting interest rates in the coming months, which is positive for risky assets including oil.

Brent stays afloat

In industry news, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week. In gasoline, the authority reported an inventory build of 2.6 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles saw an increase of 900,000 barrels for the week to June 7. Despite bearish figures, Brent crude managed to stay afloat, in part due to a relatively upbeat risk sentiment across financial markets.

Technically, oil prices could see fresh bullish attempts in the near term, with downside risks limited while above the $80 psychological level that represents the immediate significant support at this stage. On the upside, a decisive break above $83 would pave the way to more bullish bets in the near term.

13/06/2024

Bitcoin bounces modestly from three-week lows

BTC struggles in anticipation of a Fed meeting and key inflation data

The price of bitcoin has steadied on Wednesday after a solid slide witnessed during the previous session. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization peaked just below the $72,000 figure last week and has been struggling since then as traders continue to take profit after a spike. Overnight, the BTCUSD pair saw three-week lows around $66,200 before bouncing back above the $67,000 figure that now represents the immediate support.

The digital coin struggles these days as risk appetite has been constrained by anticipation of a Federal Reserve meeting and key inflation data. Rate jitters distress both financial and cryptocurrency markets, with high rates diminishing the appeal of risk-driven assets like crypto.

The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged later today. At the same time, the Fed could present a more hawkish outlook, especially amid still elevated inflation. Traders have scaled back their bets on a rate cut in September, which added to dollar’s bullishness and weighted on digital assets.

Upward trend persists

As bitcoin failed to reach the $72,000 barrier earlier in the month, the near-term outlook looks mixed-to-bearish so far at this stage. Of note, the pair was rejected from this level for the fourth time already. So the market may need a significant bullish driver to challenge and break above the barrier eventually.

In a wider picture, however, the coin is poised to continue its upward trend. After posting all-time highs around $73,600 in March, the BTCUSD pair has been holding mostly above the $60,000 figure last seen in late-April. In the near term, a failure to hold above $66,000 may add to the downside momentum surrounding bitcoin.

07/06/2024

Gold plunges from two-week highs

Traders take profit after a jump above the $2,400 psychological level

At the end of a relatively positive week, gold prices fell sharply, retracing from two-week highs on Friday as traders opted to take profit in anticipation of the release of a closely-watched monthly employment report from the United States.

After a brief rally above the $2,400 figure for the first time since May 22, the XAUUSD pair dipped to the $2,355 zone that has been acting as support so far. Despite the sell-off, the precious metal remains slightly positive on the weekly timeframes so far, with this week’s lows arriving in the $2,335 area.

The sell-off took place during the European hours as the US dollar erased intraday losses to turn unchanged. Still, the greenback remains bearish, clinging to mid-May lows around the 104.00 figure that has been preventing the USD from a deeper retreat this week.

Bullishness persists

In the near term, gold prices could resume the ascent if the dollar comes under renewed selling pressure. Such a scenario could be seen later in the day if the upcoming US employment and wages report disappoints.

In a wider picture, the safe-haven yellow metal could see fresh all-time highs as global central banks proceed to cutting rates. By the way, the Bank of Canada and the ECB both launched monetary easing this week, thus adding to positive tone surrounding the non-yielding metal.

Technically, the XAUUSD pair remains bullish, with downside risks limited while above the $2,300 zone last seen more than one-month ago. The key support area now arrives around $2,330, while on the upside, a decisive recovery above $2,380 would pave the way back to the $2,400 key barrier on the way to all-time tops registered last month around $2,465.

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