03/11/2026
The US votes today. But what could the midterm results mean for the economy and markets? 🇺🇸
Democrats are expected to take the House of Representatives and they may also win the Senate. If they do, the Trump administration’s ability to pursue its domestic and economic policy agenda would be significantly constrained.
Our Chief Strategist Valtteri Ahti highlights three key perspectives to watch:
🔹 The US economy remains robust, but affordability is a key concern. Economic growth remains solid, while elevated inflation, particularly gasoline prices, has weighed on voters.
🔹 A divided government could significantly limit the administration’s room for economic policy. Losing the House would effectively gridlock partisan fiscal legislation, shifting the administration’s focus towards areas such as trade and foreign policy.
🔹 Public debt remains an important issue on both sides of the Atlantic. The US is running a budget deficit of around 6% of GDP, while gross federal debt is close to 130% of GDP. In Europe, markets have been more concerned about France, where the spread between French and German ten-year yields has widened to its highest level since the euro crisis.
The implications of the elections therefore extend well beyond the political balance of power in Washington.
👉 Read Valtteri’s full analysis on our blog: https://www.evli.com/en/articles/how-will-the-us-midterms-affect-the-global-economy-and-markets
