07/07/2025
Can upcoming economic data turn things around for the pound?
Sterling continues to feel the pressure after last week’s political developments around welfare reform. With uncertainty lingering, this week’s economic calendar may provide fresh momentum.
Attention turns back to trade deals this week as President Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs was due to expire on Wednesday, before announcing last night that the deadline had been extended to 1st August.
Though the UK has agreed arrangements for some industries including automotive and steel, that are several sectors that haven't been included, leaving the pound exposed to volatility risks.
This week's key insights:
• Monday - Eurozone retail sales
This morning’s figures could set the tone for the euro and influence GBP to EUR sentiment.
• Wednesday - Federal Open Market Committee
Midweek, all eyes turn to the FOMC minutes. As the rate-setting arm of the US Federal Reserve, the minutes may shed light on future interest rate moves and fuel USD volatility, which often spills over into euro pairs.
• Friday – UK GDP, Industrial & Manufacturing Output, Trade Balance
A full slate of UK data. If these figures surprise on either side, expect renewed volatility in Sterling. This could shift the GBP to EUR rate significantly before the weekend.