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BlumBraun, Barcelona (2026)

19/06/2020

Where’s my mask and hand sanitizer? Can I get curbside assistance?
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These are some of the questions people face before performing even basic tasks and activities in the new version of normalcy during a global pandemic.
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Increasingly, they also have to ask themselves, ‘Should I sign this liability waiver?’
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As more states ease social distancing rules in reopening, these liability releases are popping up in some salons, restaurants, gyms and other establishments trying to guard themselves against a lawsuit blaming them for a coronavirus infection.
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The releases are also being used at political rallies. Above the link to register for tickets to President Donald Trump’s Tulsa, Okla. campaign event on Saturday, potential attendees find language saying they are taking on “all risks related to exposure to COVID-19” and won’t hold the campaign legally responsible for any illness or injury.
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It’s always been a serious step to potentially sign away a right to sue. Waivers have been around for years, covering everything from a gym membership to a child’s trampoline party. But the decision has more weight than ever, as people decide how much risk they want to take on during the outbreak.
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Generally, liability waivers “are part of our lives and part of mainstream,” said Chas Rampenthal, attorney assist segment leader at LegalZoom. But these COVID-19 liability waivers are “unique in that we are not really sure it can be enforceable.”

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18/06/2020

After Tuesday’s rally on better-than-expected retail sales figures and an encouraging study of a drug to treat coronavirus patients, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.36% has rallied 40% from its closing low and is down just 8% from its February peak.
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Clearly, disasters aren’t necessarily devastating to financial markets. That’s worth bearing in mind when considering a new report from Deutsche Bank that looked at the next massive tail risk for markets.
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Analysts, led by Henry Allen, say there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade: a major influenza pandemic killing more than two million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. (The current COVID-19 pandemic has killed 443,765 globally already.)
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If the time frame is two decades, then there is a 56% chance of one of these disasters occurring, the analysts say, based on various studies and risk assessments. Earthquakes were omitted from the numbers on the grounds that they are more local events.
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The solar flare possibility is one rarely discussed, perhaps because the last severe one was in 1859, but the Deutsche Bank team finds that to be more likely than a major global war.
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“There could be major power outages as electrical power grids are disrupted, which in turn would have knock-on effects throughout the economy as critical infrastructure is unable to be run properly. Lives could be lost if it impacted hospitals and medical care. Communications would be disrupted, many payment systems would be dysfunctional, and GPS [Global Positioning System] satellites would face extensive interference, to the detriment of all the individuals and industries that rely on accurate location services, not least aircraft,” says the cheery report.
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Citing one study that assessed the odds of a major solar flare happening are 12% in a decade, that means there is a 40% chance it will take place in the next 40 years. Might want to keep a few spare batteries around.
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15/06/2020

Institutional investors are underexposed to the stock market
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One of the most fascinating stories in finance right now is the explosion of retail investors riding the stock market’s current three-month long rally higher.
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“The global pandemic brought retail investors back into the equity market after being largely absent for a decade,” Deutsche Bank strategist Binky Chadha wrote last week.
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“They were important buyers of the correction in equities.”
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The phenomenon has caught the attention of more Wall Street experts, who are split on whether or not this ‘Robinhood’ class of investors is fueling the rally. However, they do seem to agree on one thing: as the retail class has been cleaning up, the big institutional money has largely been missing out.
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“Institutional investor positioning in equities by contrast remains extremely low (10th percentile),” Chadha observed. “Equity positioning in our reading has risen from a record low in March back up to only the bottom of its prior range.“
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All this makes for a bullish setup as the economic backdrop continues to improve and institutions may become compelled to chase gains.
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“Positioning tends to be correlated with macro data and represents an upside risk as growth rebounds,” Chadha said of institutional investors.
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And professional traders may be further enticed by the recent spike in volatility.
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“Over the summer, if volatility stays at these levels, systematic investors will likely add to equity exposure and at some point HFs will likely follow, or will opportunistically buy the dips,“ Kolanovic argued.
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All while the retail story isn’t likely going away.
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“Retail investing activity is high, but given the unique set of circumstances (more savings, staying at home, substitute for sports betting and online gaming, etc.), we do not see the retail dynamics changing (i.e. big outflows),” Kolanovic said.

12/06/2020

U.S. stocks on Thursday booked their worst daily plunge since fears about the economic impact of measures to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic took root in investors’ psyches back in March.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -6.89% tumbled roughly 1,862 points and the S&P 500 SPX, -5.89% lost 5.9% to tally their worst one-day declines since March 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
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Bespoke Investment Group noted that the broad-market S&P 500’s greater-than-5% tumble, on the back of rejuvenated fears of an emerging second wave of the illness derived from the novel strain of coronavirus and a sobering outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, was only the 28th time since 1952, when the S&P 500 converted to a five-day trading schedule, that the index has tumbled by at least 5% in a day.
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Five of those declines have been in the past three months alone. The investment and research provider also noted that an unraveling of the market on a Thursday is also a rarity, with all such previous Thursday 5%+ drops occurring amid the 2008 financial crisis and none before that, going back to 1952.
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All that said, declines of this magnitude have historically been followed by sizable rebounds in the days, weeks and months to follow
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Bespoke notes that, on average, the S&P 500 has rallied 2.14% the day after a decline of 5% or more, and has been positive the next day 81.48% of the time.
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Of course, the longer the time horizon, the greater the likelihood and intensity of the bounceback. About a year after such drops, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 18.92% and has had positive returns 82.6% of the time, Bespoke noted.
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Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services, said that valuations for stocks had gotten lofty after the run-up for equities from their lows.
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11/06/2020

Stock futures slid following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, in which policymakers highlighted the ongoing economic concerns spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken to contain it.
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Market participants also eyed a rise in new coronavirus cases in key states including Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s weekly report showed another 1.542 million individuals filed new unemployment insurance claims for the week ended June 6, coming down slightly from the prior week’s 1.897 million.
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Shares of companies that have been among the most set to benefit from easing social distancing measures pointed to another session of steep declines. Carriers American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta dropped in early trading Thursday, pointing to a third straight day of losses. Cruise companies Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, along with lodging firms Wynn and Hilton, also tracked toward a third consecutive down day.
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The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections indicated the Fed expects a steep 6.5% contraction in real GDP in 2020, with an unemployment rate at 9.3%. However, policymakers expect real GDP to rebound by 5.0% in 2021, with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5%.
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In its monetary policy decision, the Fed projected interest rates would remain near zero through 2022 and telegraphed that its pace of asset purchases would remain at minimum at the current rate.
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10/06/2020

Africa: Vastly Underexplored

New producing countries from sub-Saharan Africa are beginning to redraw the continent’s oil and gas map. Today, the putative class valedictorians, Nigeria and Angola, together pump around 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and also dominate natural gas output. Only a handful of other countries in the region produce more than a couple of hundred thousand barrels of oil and gas equivalent.

A few years from now, however, the balance could be very different with Uganda, Kenya, Ghana and Niger developing fields each with a potential capacity for over 100,000 bpd of oil.

Now, Reconnaissance Energy Africa is hoping to put Namibia on the map onshore, while supermajors such as Exxon, Shell and Total SA are hoping to bring Namibia fame offshore.

A few years ago, during the shale boom, Recon Africa went looking for shale in Namibia and discovered a deep giant basin, the Kavango Basin.

The Kavango Basin is an extension of the Permian Karoo shales of South Africa, Botswana and Namibia. It’s never seen a drill bit, yet it could become an analogue to one of the world’s largest shale discoveries in South Africa. The ultra-deep basin simulates in many ways the kind of environment you see in Eagle Ford:

- 6.3 million total acres to Eagle Ford’s 6.7 million acres in geographic size

- Potential for an estimated 12 billion barrels OOIP (Original Oil in Place) and 119 TCF OGIP(Original Gas in Place), to be determined whether it’s actually there and if so, technically recoverable. If it were, that’s significantly higher than Eagle Ford’s 2.4 billion OOIP and 50 TCF OGIP.

Speaking to Oilprice.com, Jay Park, CEO of Recon, said he and his team immediately recognized the vast potential of the basin and obtained licenses from the Namibian government.
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The company now holds the entire Kavango Basin in Namibia under Petroleum Exploration License 73. ReconAfrica owns 90% interest in Petroleum Exploration License 73, while Namibia's state-owned oil company, National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia holds the remaining 10%.

09/06/2020

Stock in electric and fuel cell truck pioneer Nikola soared 104% Monday. That’s correct, the trucking startup’s stock more than doubled, gaining $37.3 a share. It really makes no sense.
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One investing pro actually asked Barron’s if we knew what was up. We didn’t initially. There is no shame—for Barron’s or anyone else—in not being able to pin down every stock move, especially in the highest flying stocks.
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It seems a tweet is what set the stock off. Founder Trevor Milton announced the company would start taking reservations for Badger—Nikola’s pickup truck—later this month on June 29.
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It sounds like good news. But whether it justifies a 100% gain is another matter. The stock market is supposed to be efficient. Nikola (ticker: NKLA) previously announced plans for a light pickup truck. People know the Badger is coming.
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“At this time, Nikola is focused on the production of its Class 8 heavy-duty vehicles and does not expect to develop production plans for the Badger unless we enter into a strategic partnership with an established OEM,” reads Nikola’s stock registration statement filed in May.
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The company’s initial product will be a battery powered heavy duty truck release in 2021. A so-called class 8 truck is a semi-truck for hauling on highways. Nikola is developing fuel cell technology and plans to deliver a product around 2023.
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#85379

12/05/2020

Bitcoin might die (or not), Ethereum might die (or not), Stellar might die (or not), Litecoin might die (or not).
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But Cryptocurrency and blockchain... Ah... This will remain.
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10/05/2020

Lesson 3: how to buy cryptocurrency.
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It may seem difficult, but it’s not. Actually, it might be easier than open a bank account in some countries! Don’t be scared, and get ahead.
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09/05/2020

In 2 days, 2020 halving will occur.
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The amount of Bitcoin rewarded per block mined will be cut by half, driving one step further the scarcity of the cryptocurrency, until no more Bitcoin could be mined (year 2140 approximately).
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08/05/2020

Statista shared the results of the study: How common is crypto?
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Some insights: One in five Turks use crypto. South America has 4 countries in the Top 10. Spain is the European country with more pe*******on, and if we consider the numbers by absolute population, China is the country with most people who uses crypto.
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@ Barcelona, Spain

06/05/2020

And what is Bakkt?
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Bakkt is digital wallet app to track, spend & send digital assets like cryptocurrency, loyalty & reward points. Basically like any other platform you could be more familiar with (like Coinbase or Binance) but created by Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Traditional companies are starting to see a future in new financial options, and they don’t want to be left out.

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