Stockmarket Timing Egypt

06/06/2020

The outlook for the EGX 30 is continued strength with eventually going to a target of 12400 to 13600 from now to the end of July 2020 . One would then expect a reaction down to around 11000 to take place . There is currently strong institutional buying locally and from overseas .
There is one point I need to bring up and that is that because of the 2016 floating of the EGP we are currently in real terms , using the USD for the EGX 30 well below the low point of February 2009 and December 2011 .When looking at the Egypt ETF exchange traded fund EGPT listed in Wall Street which mirrors the EGX 30 in composition one gets to see the picture .

19/02/2019

I will start writing posts showing my way of analyzing stocks with simple moving averages giving a good and simple way of trading and managing risk . If anyone has a favourite stock tell me about it and I will analyze it ..

31/01/2017

We are proceeding towards a market correction and the value of securities traded falling gave an indication of that but more importantly the EGX 50 Equally Weighted Average gave an advanced warning of that .

29/01/2017

There is one tool in technical analysis which is very dear to me and this is Relative Strength Charting which is dividing the price of a stock by the Market Index , in our case I prefer either the EGX 50 which has equal weighting to its stocks or the EGX 100 which is broader based . I imagine you could make a case for the EGX 30 which tracks the big money .
In the accompanying study I have drawn the performance of COMI ,OTMT , HRHO, and MNHD to see which stock is better to invest money in . One can do that with sectors as well and with currencies and between stocks and gold or the $ . The possibilities are endless. The conclusion is that in a race some horses run faster and we want to know them.

29/01/2017

I have one simple comment to make about the news story that the EGX 30 performance is the best stock market performance in the world .
Go look at the bottom of the EGX 30 in February 2009 and tell me how much the USD was worth in EGP's then , about 5.70 and the EGX 30 was 3380.
Now the EGX 30 touched 13500 and the USD = 19 EGP's
Adjusting for currency and buying power changes 5.70/19.00X13500 = 4050 for the real EGX 30 .
If you look at the EGX 70 the mirror of small companies and the health of the economy the picture is much much worse , in fact the EGX70 was 421 in Feb 2009 and in January 2017 it touched 483 which means 5.70/19.00 X 483 = 145.00
I am enclosing 2 long term monthly charts for the EGX 30 and EGX 70 for comparison and deep thought .

28/01/2017

28/01/2017

Dear Followers,

As I have previously stated this page is of educational interest to those who have a working knowledge of technical analysis and the Egyptian market . For example I will always use the codes of the companies and it is easy to get the necessary news and information about them from the following link which is a brokerage company whose site I particularly like although I have no dealings with them.

https://www.arabfinance.com/en/home

The stocks I will follow and comment on are highly liquid and have a high profile .
CCAP COMI
EFIC EGTS EGCH EKHO ETRS ESRS ELEC
GTHE HELI HRHO IRON
MNHD OCDI ORWE OTMT PHDC
SVCE SWDY TMGH UEGC .

Comments will be made regularly on the relative performance of the EGX 30 ,EGX 50 , EGX 70 , EGX 100.

I will assume I have inherited now a portfolio made up of these stocks and I will proceed to comment on them.
I have 3 market positions 1. BUY 2.SELL 3.GO FLAT .........There are no stop loss contingencies as they are covered by 3.

23/11/2015

Just a word on the envelope made up of 3 SMA 's , simple moving averages of 3 days or 3 weeks or 3 months depending on the chart . The SMA is plotted 1 day or week or month ahead , 1 period shift forwards . The 3 lines represent the SMA of Lows , Closes and Highs .
When there is a good trend up or down the price bars are outside the envelope or at least entirely above or below the red line of closes .
When the trend is strong as seen in an Elliott Wave type Impulse wave the Red Line of closes touches closely the Blue or Green lines of Highs or Lows.
When the trend weakens or we are in congestion or Elliott Type Corrective patterns the Red Line separates from the top or bottom lines and is in the middle . This occurs at the same time one gets Negative Divergence Signals on RSI or MACD or Stochastics . The advantage of this envelope system is that those signals occur at the same time as with other indicators and IN THE PRICE chart window not in a separate one below.
Have a look at the charts below , they give an element of predictability .
The position of those lines with respect to the price bars gives BUY or SELL or STAY OUT signals .
This system DOES NOT employ conventional Stop Loss orders or levels because you get a signal to GET OUT when long when you are still in profit and if you get into a trade on the long side you get a Get Out signal if things go wrong very early .
One disadvantage is that you may get in and out more often sometimes than with a conventional system but it is much safer .
The correct money management and size allocation to the value of each stock completes the picture with some Market Breadth Indicators .

23/11/2015

In the post below this one I have published expected turning point dates till 9 April 2016 . Enclosed are 3 charts Dly,Wkly,Mthly .
If you need any clarification just ask , especially regarding the moving average envelopes.

23/11/2015

Hello Everybody ,

Here is our list for Turning Points dates until my birthday the 9th of April 2016 .

23/11/2015
25/11/2015
28/11/2015
1/12/2015
6/12/2015
12/12/2015
14/12/2015
20/12/2015
28/12/2015
29/12/2015
4/01/2016
5/01/2016
10/01/2016
16/01/2016
18/01/2016
19/01/2016
20/01/2016
23/01/2016
27/01/2016
30/01/2016
3/02/2016
6/02/2016
8/02/2016
20/02/2016
22/02/2016
27/02/2016
28/02/2016
1/03/2016
6/03/2016
7/03/2016
20/03/2016
26/03/2016
27/03/2016
29/03/2016
2/04/2016
4/04/2016
5/04/2016
9/04/2016

The calculation of these turning points differs from the previous calculations and we hope they will prove more accurate.
We are also working on predicting the probable direction of the coming move and how significant it might be but this might take long .

21/08/2015

We expect my partner and I the following dates between now and the end of the year to be important change in trend dates ( C.I.T ).

1. Sep 12-13 2. Sep 19 3. Sep 24 4. Sep 26 5. Oct 2-9 should see 2-3 CIT's 6. Oct 18 7. Oct 23 8. Oct 30 9 Nov 5 10. Nov 14 11. Nov 20 12. Nov 26 13 Nov 29.