25/06/2026
๐จ U.S. INFLATION TEST LOOMS AS MARKETS FOCUS ON PCE, GDP & DURABLE GOODS
๐ฅ Today's Market Review
๐
Thursday, 25 June 2026
Markets enter a critical trading session with investors awaiting a wave of high-impact U.S. economic data that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. PCE inflation, Final Q1 GDP and Durable Goods Orders headline today's calendar as the U.S. dollar remains close to its highest level in more than a year, while commodities and cryptocurrencies continue to navigate a cautious risk environment.
๐ Market Overview
๐บ๐ธ US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Dollar Index trades marginally lower at 101.57 after touching Wednesday's over-a-year high of 101.80. Despite the modest pullback, the greenback remains well supported ahead of today's inflation and growth releases.
US equity futures remain cautious following this week's technology-led volatility, with investors also digesting Micron's earnings released after Wednesday's market close.
๐ฑ Forex Markets
๐ช๐บ๐บ๐ธ EUR/USD: 1.13651 (+0.06%)
The euro edges higher ahead of the ECB Economic Bulletin and remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.
๐ฌ๐ง๐บ๐ธ GBP/USD: 1.3179 (+0.13%)
Sterling posts modest gains as markets prepare for a busy U.S. macro session.
๐ฆ๐บ๐บ๐ธ AUD/USD: 0.68987 (-0.02%)
The Australian dollar remains under pressure amid continued demand for the U.S. dollar.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ต USD/JPY: 161.752 (+0.01%)
The pair remains close to its 2026 highs, supported by broad dollar strength.
๐ฅ Precious Metals
๐ฅ Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold rebounds from its lowest level since November 2025 to trade around $3,976. The precious metal continues to struggle below the key $4,000 psychological level ahead of the PCE inflation report.
๐ฅ Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver falls for a third consecutive session to $56.66 as expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on precious metals. CME FedWatch currently prices September rate hike odds at approximately 70%, up sharply from 44% just one week ago.
๐ข Energy Markets
๐ข WTI Crude Oil: ~$69.55
๐ข Brent Crude Oil: ~$72.58
WTI crude remains under heavy selling pressure, falling 1.14% and trading close to levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues to ease supply concerns and pressure oil prices.
โฟ Cryptocurrency Markets
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) trade modestly higher early Thursday but remain under broader pressure as higher expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy continue to limit upside momentum.
โฟ Bitcoin (BTC): $61,611
ฮ Ethereum (ETH): $1,649
โ XRP (XRP): $1.084
Bitcoin continues trading below its 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs, Ethereum remains capped beneath $1,700 despite defending key support, while XRP has broken below the $1.10 level with sellers maintaining near-term control.
๐ What Traders Should Watch Today
A data-heavy U.S. session takes centre stage, featuring the PCE Price Index, Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending and both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Investors will also monitor speeches from FOMC members Bowman and Williams, alongside the ECB Economic Bulletin and comments from Philip Lane.
๐ Market Expectations
๐บ๐ธ US Core PCE YoY
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.3%
MoM Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Persistent core inflation would reinforce a stronger U.S. dollar.
๐บ๐ธ US PCE YoY
Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 3.8%
MoM Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.4%
Higher inflation could strengthen expectations for further Fed tightening.
๐บ๐ธ US Core PCE Prices (Q1)
Forecast: 4.40% | Previous: 2.70%
A sharp increase would confirm ongoing inflation pressures.
๐บ๐ธ US GDP (Q1)
Forecast: 1.6% | Previous: 0.5%
GDP Price Index Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.7%
Markets will closely monitor any upward revision to economic growth.
๐บ๐ธ US Durable Goods Orders
Forecast: -5.0% | Previous: 7.9%
Core Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 1.1%
A significant slowdown is expected following April's aircraft-driven surge.
๐บ๐ธ US Personal Spending
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.5%
Solid consumer spending would continue supporting the U.S. dollar.
๐บ๐ธ US Jobless Claims
Forecast: 225K | Previous: 226K
Continuing Claims Forecast: 1,800K | Previous: 1,810K
Labour market resilience remains an important indicator for the Fed.
๐บ๐ธ FOMC Members Bowman & Williams
Any hawkish commentary may further support the dollar and Treasury yields.
๐ Key Events (GMT)
๐ช๐บ ECB Economic Bulletin (08:00)
๐ช๐บ ECB's Lane Speaks (10:00)
๐บ๐ธ Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Core PCE Prices (Q1) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ GDP (QoQ) (Q1) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Initial Jobless Claims (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Personal Spending (MoM) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) (12:30)
๐บ๐ธ FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (12:45)
๐บ๐ธ FOMC Member Williams Speaks (19:40)
๐บ๐ธ Fed's Balance Sheet (20:30)
๐น Stay tuned & Trade safe!
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Prices, market movements, and analysis reflect conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice.
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