AdAstra

15/03/2024

These weeks, the scene has seen a notable shift, with Türkiye emerging as a focal point with seven prominent while the US and European markets have remained relatively subdued. However, the upcoming pipeline in both Europe and the US holds promise, hinting at the anticipation of new major listings in the months to come.



OBA Makarna, Klarna, Etihad Airways, Springer Nature, Webull, eToro

These weeks, the IPO scene has seen a notable shift, with Türkiye emerging as a focal point with seven prominent IPOs while the US and European markets have remained relatively subdued. However, the upcoming pipeline in ...

16/02/2024

Welcome to the 2024 , where we observe the start of a new year filled with promising opportunities. As the curtains rise on this year's landscape, we find ourselves pleasantly surprised by the flurry of activity that has already unfolded. While many anticipated the revival of known and long-awaited names, 2024 began with deals by the companies that kept their cards close to the chest until very recently. With expectations of rate cuts on the horizon, investors are brimming with hope for a resurgence in IPO activity. January and the beginning of February witnessed a surge in the sector, underscoring the backlog of companies eager to reward investors with returns at the later stages of clinical trials. Several sizable European commenced trading simultaneously for the first time in a few years, in particular, in air travel and military equipment sectors.


Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul), Euronext, MicroSalt, Air Astana, Kaspi.kz

Welcome to the 2024 IPO Digest, where we observe the start of a new year filled with promising opportunities. As the curtains rise on this year's IPO landscape, we find ourselves pleasantly surprised by the flurry of act...

15/01/2024

With the start of 2024, the market is getting ready for a comeback after a two-year break. Many companies, eagerly awaiting at the doors of major stock exchanges, are getting ready to enter the market this year. The uncertainties that hung over the IPO scene in recent years are fading away, showing positive signs for the new offerings. The year 2023 saw a significant slowdown in activity, creating a shallow starting point, and paving the way for an IPO boost in 2024. While things look promising, whether this positive trend will last depends on the changing global economic situation.
While main regions have experienced an IPO slowdown in recent years, the Middle East has bucked the trend, gaining momentum and culminating in a series of successful deals by the end of 2023. Recognizing this positive trend, we find it worthwhile to feature the top exchanges in the region in our for the year 2024.
As the IPO activity slowed down in the US market, European listings gained more attention in December 2023, with a notable IPO in Warsaw - the first in two years.



Kaspi.kz, Panera Bread, Apex Fintech Solutions, Pleo, Golden Goose, OakNorth Bank, Fractyl Health, BolognaFiere, Cloudia research, Lemon Sistemi

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19/12/2023

AdAstra's founder and managing partner Yulia Kim was recently nominated by Forbes to the prestigious Forbes Cyprus Women in Tech award. The award brought to light a constellation of incredible women running successful businesses and possessing outstanding professional qualities, yet so fragile and feminine, as was beautifully evident at the awards ceremony. Congratulations to all the winners and nominees and best of luck in your professional journeys!

Nominee 5️⃣ — Yulia Kim: Capital Markets Catalyst

Yulia Kim, a seasoned corporate finance professional, excels in developing Cyprus' capital markets. With over two decades of investment banking experience, she has a notable track record in IPOs, M&A, and capital raising.

15/12/2023

In 2023, new hotspot markets outperformed traditional ones, despite an overall decline of approximately one-third in IPO proceeds compared to the lukewarm pace of 2022. While many governments globally implement measures to stimulate , high-growth economies stole the spotlight, exemplified by , , and , all surpassing their 5-year average IPO activity in volume and proceeds.
• Indonesia's thriving IPO expansion, fueled by global demand for its mineral resources, a large population, fast-growing unicorns, and strategic privatisation, was notable.
• Turkey's IPO market surged as companies sought fresh financing opportunities, capitalising on retail investors' interest.
• India, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand recorded more IPOs compared to their 5-year averages, with India maintaining robust momentum despite smaller deal sizes affecting proceeds.
• Turkey, UAE, and India boast the peak post-IPO performance in 2023 with 100%, 80%, and 75% of newly public companies showing positive return.

In 2023, new hotspot IPO markets outperformed traditional ones, despite an overall decline of approximately one-third in IPO proceeds compared to the lukewarm pace of 2022. While many governments globally implement measu...

07/12/2023

Finding the wheat in a lot of chaff. Looking through the overall gloomy (and frankly boring) arrays of data from the recent PitchBook report Emerging Tech Indicator for 3Q23, it is possible to make several interesting observations nevertheless. While in general, the deal activity in the tracked universe continued to deteriorate, reflecting the cautious attitude across the VC space, the relative strength of the AI & ML segment is noticeable. In theory, VC investors' appetite for everything AI may by extension be projected into the now-frozen space.

When remains an open question, however, the last several weeks have seen a clear shift in expectations of the Fed monetary policy with futures now pricing 130 bp of cuts already in 2024 (according to Reuters). Relaxation of the draconian interest rate policy should ease pressure on valuations and remove the key hurdle to the IPO activity for growth stories, specifically in the tech area. With investors' interest being apparent, whether there are any players ready and able to go public, remains to be seen.

Alex Kantarovich, CFA

06/12/2023

The recent discussions on interest rates and SHEIN's upcoming public market debut have rekindled enthusiasm for . Nevertheless, in November, four out of six major IPOs in the USA were priced below their anticipated ranges, which to us suggests the lack of conviction. The others in the queue to the newly opened window should feel headwinds. While the market tends to be accessible to high-quality companies experiencing profitable growth, businesses considering entering the public markets must temper their valuation expectations. As the festive season approaches, a few preparing companies are deciding to postpone their IPOs to the next year hoping for a more IPO-friendly environment.



Fortegra, Air Astana, Klarna, Reddit, SBE - Varvit, Norconsult

The recent discussions on interest rates and Shein's upcoming public market debut have rekindled enthusiasm for IPOs. Nevertheless, in November, four out of six major IPOs in the USA were priced below their anticipated r...

01/12/2023

The long-rumored of Shein is set to become a reality in 2024, as reported by both the Wall Street Journal and CNBC earlier this week. Shein has confidentially filed to go public in the US and has hired Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters for the offering.
Due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, Shein experienced a significant drop in its valuation from $100 bn in 2Q22 to $60 bn in a 2Q23 fundraising round. However, it aims to seek a valuation of up to $90 bn in its IPO, as per Bloomberg reports.
Accusations of forced labor employment in China have drawn increased scrutiny from the SEC, becoming a significant challenge to the company's success. Shein, responding to critics, asserts a zero-tolerance policy for forced labor and mandates its contract manufacturers to source cotton only from approved regions. In 2022, Shein relocated its headquarters to Singapore and initiated the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, aiming to diversify beyond its Chinese manufacturing base.
As the dominant player in fast-fashion retail, Shein commands an 18% share of the global market as per Reuters data and is indicating a continuous increase in its market share. The company's direct shipping strategy has proven instrumental in preventing unsold inventory from accumulating in warehouses and circumventing import taxes in the US, one of its largest markets.

24/11/2023

The tech IPO events are so few and far between. The occurrence of Tech IPOs through the last couple of years has been rare. Contemplating the conclusion of the ongoing public capital-raising drought requires a stretch of imagination. Indeed, whether through cognitive biases or generational phenomenon, collective investors often succumb to short-termism. It could be argued, that the impediments to companies going public primarily stem from 1) the heightened sensitivity of growth companies' fundamentals and valuations to interest rates, with 2) pressure from the surges of recent years; exacerbated by 3) the uncertainties regarding further policy responses from the key central banks, something that the markets abhor. Whether we are near the inflection point remains uncertain, the environment could progressively ease in 2024. Investors and companies in search of IPOs would be well-advised to look at the other side of the proverbial valley.

After looking at data from a recent report of CB Insights, we highlight that demand for capital appears robust, with over 250 VC-backed names that look likely to tap the public capital markets in the next 12-18 months. The shortlisting of these involved assessing their capital needs within the context of each company stage of development and life cycle. A closer look at the list reveals several interesting aspects which we highlight here.

Alex Kantarovich, CFA

15/11/2023

A heartfelt thank you to all the organisers and participants for making LSE 2023 a valuable and enriching experience!

The AdAstra team is thrilled to have been a part of the LSE IPO Forum 2023, joining over 300 participants from around the world. Here are some key takeaways from this enriching event.

10/11/2023

𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 in 3Q23
Today we want to share the key takeaways from the just-released CB Insights 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭. The quarterly general funding is staying low and slow, not surprisingly, given the punishing interest rates and geopolitical environment.
Global funding showed $30.5 bn in 9M23, down 61% from 2022 with 2849 deals recorded, less than half of the 2022 full-year number. In 2Q and 3Q23 the number of deals fell steadily by roughly a fifth in each, as per CB Insights statistics.
Across the 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, the US led the pack with $3.5 bn total check and 310 deals followed by Asia with $2 bn and 167 deals and Europe with $1.3 bn and 181 deals. Notably, the US has gained the deal share by 5pp to 41% at the expense of its peers.
Turning to the 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠, VCs continued to claim the largest share at 28% of the total in 3Q23, roughly in line with the 5Y 31% average.
Looking at the 𝐬𝐞𝐠𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠, Digital Lending attracted $1.7 bn with Insurtech and Payments as distant seconds ($1.1 bn), the rest being split between Capital Markets Techs, Banking, and Wealth Tech.
We highlight here the median deal size hovering in the $3-5 m range in 2019-24, while the averages ranged $14-29 m, indicating large outliers originating on the Private Equity side, particularly on mega-round funding in the US (7 deals) and Asia (5 deals).
: nothing to write home about as the birth rate remains slow. The quarter saw just 2 names entering the club in 3Q23 in the US (BitGo and Kin Insurance) compared to 1 in Asia (Micro Connect) and yawning zeros elsewhere in the world.
Looking at the 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬, we notice 135 M&A exits against 144 in 2Q23 and 178 in 1Q23, while and **Cs showed a sharp pick up in activity in percentage terms, albeit from a very low base with 9 and 3 events respectively. The US led the global exit share with 36% of the total roughly in line with the last 4 years' quarterly average. In the IPO space, we highlight 4Paradigm (China) raising $3.8 bn followed by CAB Payments (the UK) with $927 m, and Yondervision (China) raising $87 m. The S**C events included Better ($7.7 bn) and Roadzen ($967 m), both in the US.

03/11/2023

The robust IPO momentum seen in September faded in October with the high-profile Birkenstock IPO falling short of expectations despite significant cornerstone investments. The majority of the new issues from September IPOs have struggled, with the grocery retailer Maison Solutions along with the earlier food industry entrant Cava being the exceptions. This has added to the growing belief that the IPO window may remain closed for most companies until 2024, exemplified by the recent delay of CVC Capital Partners' IPO targeting a valuation of over $12 bn.
Pitchbook data indicates a backlog of approximately 75 companies waiting for a more favorable economic environment before going public. All things considered, we anticipate that profitable companies with stakeholders willing to offload shares will be the first to make their moves, while growth-oriented firms may postpone their offerings until better conditions with lower interest rates emerge.

The robust IPO momentum seen in September faded in October with the high-profile Birkenstock IPO falling short of expectations despite significant cornerstone investments. The majority of the new issues from September IP...