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Bank of China Bank of China was formally established in February 1912 following the approval of Dr. Sun Yat-sen.

27/08/2019

BOC Institute of International Finance Releases the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2019Q2

2019-05-09
On March 28, 2019, the BOC Institute of International Finance released the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2019Q2 (hereinafter the “Report”) in Beijing, which reviewed the economic and financial situation of China and the world at large and the operation of global banking industry in 2019Q1, and gave an outlook for the economic and financial situation as well as the trend of the global banking industry in 2019Q2.

Looking at the global economic and financial situation, the Report concludes that the downward trend of global recovery further continued, global trade and investment performance remained sluggish, manufacturing growth weakened, and the growth of major economies decelerated year to date. Global economy was mainly exposed to the risks arising from the downturn of US economy, protectionism, asset bubbles and geopolitical conflicts. International financial market remained stable on a whole. It is expected that the US financial risks will increase modestly, while the financial pressures of emerging economies will ease up slightly in 2019Q2. Under the weak global economic recovery, major economies have slowed down the normalization of monetary policy, and some economies may stop raising interest rate or start lowering interest rate. With the global liquidity picking up, the positive factors in the global stock markets will be stronger than the negative factors in 2019Q2. Facing a rise in the Eurosceptic sentiment and anti-establishment political groups, Europe will hobble ahead amid conflicts.

With respect to China’s economic and financial situation, according to the Report, in 2019Q1, China’s economy still faced big downward pressure under the influence of both favorable and unfavorable factors. On the one hand, exports growth turned from positive to negative amid slowing global recovery and Sino-US trade frictions. On the other hand, with a series of policies launched and implemented, including the “six-pronged policy to boost stability”, the economy saw a rising number of stabilizing factors. GDP is expected to grow by about 6.2% in 2019Q1. Looking forward to Q2, domestic policy and market environment will be improved in spite of many uncertainties in the external environment, and the economy is expected to stabilize, with GDP to grow by about 6.3% in Q2 and 6.4% for the whole year. As for macro-economic policies, first, China will speed up the implementation of policies laid out in the Report on the Work of the Government. Second, China will pay close attention to price changes and properly control the pace and intensity of monetary and credit policies. Third, considering the great uncertainties loom in external environmental changes, we suggest keeping close track of them and putting in place policy buffers and contingency plans.

Regarding the development trend of the global banking industry, the Report comments that the operating environment of global banks has remained stable overall since 2019, and predicates that the banking industry of major economies will continue with divergent development and keep their profitability and risk profile at a stable level. China’s banking industry has maintained a steady expansion in balance sheet and further enhanced its risk absorbency. Chinese banks have increased support for micro and small businesses and private-sector economy, supported the supply-side structural reform in the financial sector through strengthening the service capabilities and shoring up service weaknesses, and promoted the high-quality development of the real economy. Global large banks are actively strengthening their capital base by means of introducing innovative capital instruments and reducing risk-weighted assets, etc., and placing increasing emphasis upon improvement of the expertise in key sectors and risk management in terms of business diversification.

27/08/2019

BOC Institute of International Finance Releases the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2019

2019-01-04
On November 28, 2018, the BOC Institute of International Finance released the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2019 (hereinafter the “Report”) in Beijing, which reviewed the economic and financial situation of China and across the globe and the operation of the global banking industry throughout 2018, and gave an outlook for the economic and financial situation as well as the trend of the global banking industry in the next year.

In terms of the global economic and financial situation, according to the Report, the global real economy has arrived at a turning point and faced with an increasingly bigger downward pressure. The world economy is at the following potential risks: there is no further room for the growth of US economy, trade frictions between China and the US are escalating and the globe is under a heavier debt burden. Interest rate rise is seen in the monetary policies of major countries, the global financial market may be exposed to more fluctuations, and some emerging economies with both fiscal deficit and trade deficit are becoming riskier. Geographically speaking, the economic expansion of the US has entered the later stage, Europe is moving slower towards economic resuscitation, Asia-Pacific is stable on the whole, opportunities and challenges co-exist for economic development in the Belt and Road regions, and the economy of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa is expected to gradually recover out of fluctuations. Currently, the multilateral trade system is suffering a setback, the WTO reform is struggling forward, regional trade agreements are thriving, and the landscape of international trade is to reshuffle. The US dollar liquidity is gradually tightening around the world, the US dollar index is strengthening, the trend of making securities investment in the emerging economies is reversed, and the economic growth faces challenges.

Regarding China’s economic and financial situation, the Report concludes that the Chinese economy in 2018 was under bigger downward pressure due to significant changes in the domestic and foreign environment, and was generally characterized by “three declines and two stabilities”. It is expected that the whole-year GDP will grow 6.6% around in 2018 and 6.5% around in 2019. The Chinese economy remains at a critical stage of “great readjustments” instead of entering the so-called “new cycle”. The “great readjustments” will possibly last for another three to five years. In terms of the macro-economic policy, a high alert should be given to the possible resonance of external impact and “great readjustments”, which may lead to excessively fast decline of the economy. The proactive fiscal policy should highlight tax and fee reduction and may reasonably increase the fiscal deficit ratio. The monetary policy should shift to “loose credit” from “loose money”. The regulatory policy, while sticking to the general direction, should keep a proper pace and ward off the “risk of risk disposal”. The progress and effectiveness of the policy “capacity reduction, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction and improving underdeveloped areas” should be reviewed with appropriate adjustments.

As to the development of the global banking industry, according to the Report, the year 2018 reported a lack of growth momentum in global economy, an increase of financial risks, tightening monetary and regulatory environment and further divergence in global banking development. It is imperative to balance the relationship among scale, structure, quality, efficiency, risk and market performance, and sustain the development in face of new uncertainties. Looking into 2019, the pressure for global banking development will intensify, the financial regulation and supervision will become increasingly stricter, banks will refine the regional structure of their overseas development, developed countries will have an obvious divergence in banking development, and banks in developing countries will embrace new challenges. In the new year, the Chinese banking industry will expand the scale steadily, report stable yet higher profit growth, pick up speed in deepening reforms, make greater efforts to develop digital inclusive finance and introduce fresh opportunities into the transformation of wealth management business.

27/08/2019

BOC Institute of International Finance Releases the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2018 Q4

2018-11-01
On September 28, 2018, the BOC Institute of International Finance released the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2018 Q4 (hereinafter the “Report”) in Beijing, which reviewed the economic and financial situation of the globe and China and the operation of the global banking industry in the third quarter of 2018, and gave an outlook of the economic and financial situation as well as the trend of the global banking industry in the fourth quarter.

In terms of the global economic and financial situation, according to the Report, the global economy grew modestly but there was a divergence in the recovery trend. The US economy picked up speed in economic growth, the Eurozone and Japan witnessed a slight slowdown of growth, and growth momentums in some of the emerging economies were weakened. The operation of world economy was tested by a multiple of events, e.g. trade decline, inflation rise, liquidity tightening throughout the globe and financial fluctuations in the emerging markets. National currencies of many emerging markets devalued drastically, while the countries with fragile economic fundamentals, imperfect policy frameworks and high geopolitical conflict and domestic political risks will be further challenged in the future. Protectionism has been spread into the investment field from trade sector. The developed world has been tightening the review of foreign investment, accompanied by an increasingly higher risk of generalizing review and fragmenting rules. However, developing countries are expected to play a more important role. The US is experiencing the historically longest economic recovery, but potential risks are emerging. Its economic expansion cycle lies in the latter half due to such factors as trade protectionism, tightening of monetary policy and increase of fiscal deficit.

Regarding China’s economic and financial situation, the Report concludes that China’s economic operation in the third quarter of 2018 was generally stable and expects the GDP to grow by 6.6% around thanks to such factors as further rapid growth of exports, continued recovery in manufacturing and private investment and sustained fast growth of new growth drivers. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, with the steady strengthening of endogenous growth drivers in domestic economy and the readjustments of macroeconomic policies, the downward pressure on China’s economy will ease. It is expected that China’s GDP growth will increase by 6.7% in the fourth quarter and around 6.7% for the whole year. In the next step, the macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting the implementation of the “Six Stabilizers” tasks (remain employment, finance, foreign trade, investment, and expectations stable) policy according to the arrangement of Politburo meeting on July 31, pay more attention to coordination and cooperation of policies, bring the combined role of proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy into play, further propel the implementation of tax cut and fee reduction measures, and unclog the transmission mechanism of monetary and credit policies.

As to the development of the global banking industry, according to the Report, in the first three quarters of 2018, the growth of global banking industry remained stable as a whole while a higher interest rate level facilitated the significant improvement of profitability and brought about a sound risk picture; the Chinese banking industry carried forward a stable business trend, with significant improvement in profitability and further enhanced risk compensation capabilities. Looking forward to the whole year of 2018, the overall development of the global banking industry will remain stable, but we should still pay attention to the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike, emerging market volatility and global trade wars; China’s banking industry will be able to maintain the stability of its profitability and continue to consolidate its risk compensation capabilities. Facing the environmental constraints such as economic landscape change, financial regulation tightening and market competition since 2008, to be lighter has become a major trend in the development of the global banking industry. While transforming towards lighter, the banking industry should focus on policy changes, improve business layout and introduce digital technology.

27/08/2019

BOC Institute of International Finance Releases the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2018 Q3

2018-07-26
On June 28, 2018, the BOC Institute of International Finance released the Report on Economic and Financial Outlook for 2018 Q3 (hereinafter the “Report”) in Beijing, which reviewed the economic and financial situation of China and across the globe and the operation of the global banking industry in the first half of 2018, and gave an outlook of the economic and financial situation as well as the trend of the global banking industry in the second half of the year.

In terms of the global economic and financial situation, according to the Report, the global economy continued to grow in the first half of 2018. The trend of recovery stayed unchanged, but the marginal growth momentum weakened. Looking ahead, the two biggest risks facing the global economy are the trade protectionism started by the US and the shift in the global loose monetary policy. In 2018, the global inflation will rise significantly compared with 2017, and the monetary policies of major central banks will probably diverge further, triggering rebalancing of financial markets. The risk of recession reflected by a flat or even inverted US Treasury yield curve calls for attention. The political crisis in Italy has temporarily come to an end, but whether the political risks in Europe can be eliminated depends on the determination and pace of EU reform, and it is imperative to adjust fiscal and monetary mechanisms. In the context of the Fed’s interest rate hike, financial stability in emerging markets will continue to be put to the text.

Regarding China’s economic and financial situation, the Report holds that supported by the sustained recovery of the world economy, the strengthening of new domestic growth drivers, and the warming of the real estate market, the Chinese economy continued to be stabilized and improved overall in the first half of 2018. The GDP is estimated to grow at around 6.7%. The Chinese economy is still in a critical period of shifting from old growth drivers to the new ones, and has not entered the so-called “new cycle”. As the tightened financial policies have led to relatively severe economic contraction, the economic development showed signs of returning to the old path or development mode. Overall, the downward pressure on China’s economy will increase in the second half of 2018. It is expected that GDP growth will be around 6.7% for both the second half and the entire year, with the annual growth rate 0.2-percentage-point lower than the previous year. Macroeconomic policies will continue to seek improvement in stability and the risk of economic downturn and market fluctuations caused by “over-adjustment” should be guarded against. Proactive fiscal policies will play an important role in stabilizing economic growth and promoting high-quality development. Monetary policymakers will focus on addressing difficulties and high cost in corporate financing, set appropriate pace and intensity for deleveraging, and hold the bottom line that no systemic financial risks should occur.

As to the development of the global banking industry, according to the Report, the external environment of the global banking industry remained stable as a whole though the local risks rose somewhat in the first half of 2018, and the development of banking industry in different countries diverged. The performance of the US banking industry improved significantly; the China’s banking industry maintained safe and stable operation, and the performance of banking industry in other countries and regions showed great differences. Looking into the second half of 2018, the development of global banking industry may slow down and the risks will rise. It is expected that the environment for US banking industry will still be favorable; the business expansion of banks in the Europe and emerging markets will suffer some adverse impacts, weak growth and probably deteriorated risk situation; the business growth rate of China’s banking industry will stay at a low level, but the profit efficiency will continue to be improved, meanwhile the pressure on credit risk will increase, and the risk resilience is expected to be strengthened.

24/12/2018

Bank of China Issued Report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook

2018-04-26
On March 28, 2018, Bank of China issued its report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook (hereinafter referred to as the “report”). In this report, there is an outlook for the global and China’s economic and financial situation and the world banking industry in Q2, based on the review of 2018Q1.

Global Economic and Financial Outlook: Since 2018, the global economy has maintained the momentum for a stable, full recovery with a rise in inflation, in spite of the greater volatility in financial markets and the looming threat of trade war. In the near future, the global economy will continue to recover and is estimated to reach an annual growth rate of about 3.4% in 2018. The global economic landscape will be reshaped by the game between major powers and policy adjustments. The United States and its Asian Pacific allies mull a joint regional infrastructure scheme as an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative. However, that scheme faces constraints and problems making it hard to hold back the Belt and Road Initiative. The expected continuous hikes in the medium- and long-term interest rates of the United States driven by various factors may have an array of effects in the future. The battle for the European financial centre will be more intense after Brexit.

China's Economic and Financial Outlook: China saw booming demand and supply in the first quarter driven by strong external demand, fast-growing new engines and rebounding real estate and private investments, with industrial activity, consumption, investment and exports growing faster to various degrees. GDP in the first quarter is expected to grow by around 6.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. CPI is estimated to rise by about 2.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. The second quarter will see continued transition from old growth engines to new ones, faster expansion of new engines and policy supports for consumption. Chinese economy will remain on the track of steady growth toward high-quality development. But the policy to cut overcapacities will go further. Investment can hardly maintain fast expansion and export growth may moderate. Financial de-leveraging and risk prevention will continue. The economy still faces many uncertainties. GDP is expected to grow by about 6.8% in the second quarter, and also by around 6.8% in annual terms.

Global Banking Industry Outlook: In 2018Q1, global banking industry made further progress. Specifically, China’s banking industry maintained a good momentum of steadying forward on a whole with controllable risks, while further improving the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy. Global banking industry is expected to improve further in general, yet with some potential hazards, in 2018Q2. The efforts of preventing and controlling financial risks by China’s listed banks have driven regulation and supervision to become increasingly stricter, which will in turn produce far-reaching implications upon their operation and management. The report also discusses digital currency and the evolution of Global Systematically Important Banks (G-SIBs).

中国银行全力支持中国国际进口博览会办成、办好、办永久作为中国历史最悠久、国际化程度最高的商业银行，中国银行拥有在国内最具国际化水准的人力资源和全球化的机构网络，构建起涵盖商业银行、投资银行和保险在内的多元化业务，成功树立了经营稳健、信誉卓著...
07/11/2018

中国银行全力支持中国国际进口博览会办成、办好、办永久
作为中国历史最悠久、国际化程度最高的商业银行，中国银行拥有在国内最具国际化水准的人力资源和全球化的机构网络，构建起涵盖商业银行、投资银行和保险在内的多元化业务，成功树立了经营稳健、信誉卓著的企业形象，形成了独特的比较优势。

中国银行•私人银行服务中国银行为金融资产在800万人民币以上的个人客户，提供个人金融领域最顶级的私人银行尊享服务。根据客户个性化的需求，量身定做解决方案，提供风险管理、资产配置、个性化融资、投资咨询、税务及法律咨询、子女教育及留学移民规划、...
07/11/2018

中国银行•私人银行服务
中国银行为金融资产在800万人民币以上的个人客户，提供个人金融领域最顶级的私人银行尊享服务。根据客户个性化的需求，量身定做解决方案，提供风险管理、资产配置、个性化融资、投资咨询、税务及法律咨询、子女教育及留学移民规划、信托等一系列的深度专业服务，帮助客户实现财富的长期保值、增值与世代传承

07/11/2018

Bank of China Issued Report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook

On March 28, 2018, Bank of China issued its report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook (hereinafter referred to as the “report”). In this report, there is an outlook for the global and China’s economic and financial situation and the world banking industry in Q2, based on the review of 2018Q1.

Global Economic and Financial Outlook: Since 2018, the global economy has maintained the momentum for a stable, full recovery with a rise in inflation, in spite of the greater volatility in financial markets and the looming threat of trade war. In the near future, the global economy will continue to recover and is estimated to reach an annual growth rate of about 3.4% in 2018. The global economic landscape will be reshaped by the game between major powers and policy adjustments. The United States and its Asian Pacific allies mull a joint regional infrastructure scheme as an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative. However, that scheme faces constraints and problems making it hard to hold back the Belt and Road Initiative. The expected continuous hikes in the medium- and long-term interest rates of the United States driven by various factors may have an array of effects in the future. The battle for the European financial centre will be more intense after Brexit.

China's Economic and Financial Outlook: China saw booming demand and supply in the first quarter driven by strong external demand, fast-growing new engines and rebounding real estate and private investments, with industrial activity, consumption, investment and exports growing faster to various degrees. GDP in the first quarter is expected to grow by around 6.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. CPI is estimated to rise by about 2.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. The second quarter will see continued transition from old growth engines to new ones, faster expansion of new engines and policy supports for consumption. Chinese economy will remain on the track of steady growth toward high-quality development. But the policy to cut overcapacities will go further. Investment can hardly maintain fast expansion and export growth may moderate. Financial de-leveraging and risk prevention will continue. The economy still faces many uncertainties. GDP is expected to grow by about 6.8% in the second quarter, and also by around 6.8% in annual terms.

Global Banking Industry Outlook: In 2018Q1, global banking industry made further progress. Specifically, China’s banking industry maintained a good momentum of steadying forward on a whole with controllable risks, while further improving the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy. Global banking industry is expected to improve further in general, yet with some potential hazards, in 2018Q2. The efforts of preventing and controlling financial risks by China’s listed banks have driven regulation and supervision to become increasingly stricter, which will in turn produce far-reaching implications upon their operation and management. The report also discusses digital currency and the evolution of Global Systematically Important Banks (G-SIBs).

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