10/02/2026
📈 Bullish 2026? Yes, but the Cycles are signaling a shift.
While the "January Barometer" points to a green year for the S&P 500, a deeper dive into long-term cycles reveals a much more complex roadmap.
As we navigate through 2026, we are closely watching a convergence of timing windows that most traders are overlooking:
🔹 The 4-Year Cycle: Despite 2026’s bullish start, upside momentum is beginning to fade. We are anticipating a cycle low due between August and October 2026, likely retesting the 5,000 level (April 2025 lows).
🔹 The Kondratieff Shift: By adjusting the 54-year cycle backward by half a cycle (27.75 years), the historical alignment with 1974, 2002, and 2011 becomes intuitive. This shift places our next major coincident window in 2030.
🔹 The 2030 Conjunction: The real concern isn't just 2026. The 9.25-year and the 18.6-year cycles are both due to bottom in 2030. This suggests that while 2026 will see a dip, the 2030 low could be significantly deeper.
The Bottom Line:
Don't be fooled by the quarterly white candles—momentum is slowing. Successful investing in this environment requires looking beyond the next few months and focusing on the harmonic relationships of the next decade.
👇 Read the full breakdown and see our updated S&P 500 quarterly charts in this week's newsletter:
https://samt-org.ch/sp500-recall-long-term-cycles-on-quarterly-chart/
Discover the S&P500 quarterly chart analysis highlighting long-term cycles that forecast important market movements ahead.
