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Dukascopy Bank SA

Dukascopy Bank SA | Swiss Forex Bank & Marketplace | www.dukascopy.com Dukascopy Bank is based in Geneva, Switzerland.

Host to multiple international organizations, Geneva is home to people and cultures from around the world. The stability, security and high FX regulatory standards of the country fit perfectly with the Bank’s culture. Dukascopy Bank is supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, who strengths confidence and integrity of Switzerland’s financial centre. Furthermore, the Ban

k is audited by KPMG, one of the world's leading auditors. Today, Dukascopy Bank is an innovative Swiss based bank with a unique combination of technological and Forex know how. The People of Dukascopy are driven by one goal and purpose: to continue shaping the most advantageous and transparent Forex trading environment imaginable to the benefit of its clients. During years of presence in the brokerage market, the popularity of the company has been significantly increasing among individual and institutional clients. They fully rely on Dukascopy Bank’s unique ex*****on quality. Furthermore, Dukascopy Bank has expanded its services in offering market information via Dukascopy Forex Online TV. Dukascopy Bank continues to follow its primary chosen business model (ECN) and constantly develops its relations with banks and financial institutions to create the world’s biggest liquidity aggregator. Simultaneously, the services of the bank become accessible for large private and institutional clients, as well for clients who trade with smaller account sizes. Thanks to the banking security of the Swiss regulated banks, the clients’ accounts of Dukascopy Bank are guaranteed up to 100,000 Swiss francs.

04/09/2026

Market Overview — Week in Review 📊

🇯🇵 USD/JPY — 156.30
Bears are in control, but taking a breather. After getting firmly rejected from the 160.00–160.40 trendline resistance, price is now testing support at 155.00–155.50. A 4-hour close above 156.80 keeps the door open for a mean-reversion bounce toward 158.00. Lose 155.00 cleanly — and 153.00 may become the next conversation.

🇺🇸 US Consumer Sentiment — 51.7
American consumers are nervous, and the numbers show it. The University of Michigan's sentiment index dropped by 6.3% in July, reaching 51.7. Fears of inflation, rising gasoline prices and the conflict in Iran are to blame. This pessimism is widespread, affecting people of all political affiliations, with older adults and lower-income households being hit hardest. Both current conditions and future expectations have fallen sharply. Consumers aren't feeling optimistic right now — and that matters for the dollar.

🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI — 54.6%
It is still expanding, but the engine is cooling. The PMI for August came in at 54.6%, marking eight consecutive months of manufacturing growth. The headline figure looks good, but there is more to the story. Both New Orders and Backlogs dropped sharply. Meanwhile, the Prices Index is running hot at 71.1%, with raw material costs having risen for 23 consecutive months. Supply chains are under strain again, with semiconductor shortages and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz creating conditions that some executives say are more challenging than those in the post-Covid environment. Growth is there. However, the ground is shifting beneath it.

02/09/2026

Backtesting is one of the most useful tools in trading. At the same time, it is also one of the most misunderstood.

Run your strategy through five years of historical data. Watch the equity curve climb. See how the win rate, drawdown, and risk-reward ratio all line up nicely. It feels like proof.

But it's not - not exactly.

Here's what backtesting actually tells you, and where its usefulness ends.

⭕️What it can tell you:

Whether your strategy had an edge in the past. It can also show you how it behaved across different market conditions, such as trending, ranging, high volatility, and low volatility. It can also show you what your realistic drawdown periods might look like. Whether your rules are worth testing on real capital.

This information is genuinely valuable. A strategy that fails every backtest is almost certainly not worth trading live. Backtesting is the filter that saves you from finding that out the expensive way.

❌What it can't tell you:

Whether the future will resemble the past. Markets evolve. Correlations shift. Central bank behaviour changes. A strategy based on data from 2018–2022 will encounter market conditions it has never experienced before.

IIt also can't account for the psychological reality of live trading. Sitting through a ten-trade losing streak on a backtest takes seconds. Living through one in real time, with real money, is a completely different experience. The strategy might hold up. The trader running it often doesn't.

And then there's the data itself. Backtests work on clean, closed candles. Live markets have slippage, requotes, spread widening during news events, and missed entries. The gap between backtest results and live results is almost always wider than expected.

Use backtesting to build confidence in a concept — not certainty in an outcome. The market has never rewarded anyone for being certain. 📊

19/08/2026

Summer markets have a different rhythm. ☀️📉

Lower volatility can make trading feel unusually quiet. Fewer strong moves, tighter ranges, and long stretches of waiting can test a trader's patience more than a fast-moving market.

And that is where psychology becomes important.

When the market is slow, the temptation is to force a trade just to feel active. A small breakout suddenly looks significant. Every candle feels like a signal. Patience starts to feel like missed opportunity.

But low volatility does not mean you need more trades. Sometimes, the smartest move is simply to wait for conditions worth acting on.

In a quiet market, discipline is often your biggest edge.

12/08/2026

Every quarter, one number stops the market in its tracks. This is that number.

Traders watch earnings reports, inflation data and jobs numbers. But what happens when GDP drops? Everything pauses.

Yet most people couldn't tell you exactly why.

The thing about GDP is that it's not just a number. It's a verdict. A quarterly report card on the entire economy. Did it grow? Did it fall? By how much and compared to what was expected?

It's the latter that actually moves markets.

By the time GDP is released, analysts have already built their forecasts, central banks have made their intentions clear, and traders have positioned themselves accordingly. The number itself matters less than the difference between the actual figure and what was expected.

If the forecast is beaten, the currency strengthens, rate raise bets firm up and risk appetite improves.
Miss it — and the opposite happens fast.

But here's the part that rarely gets talked about: GDP is old news by the time you read it. The data covers a quarter that ended months ago. Markets are forward-looking. While everyone is reacting to what has already happened, the smarter investors are already asking what the next figure will be.

Then there's the revision to consider. The initial GDP estimate, which often moves markets, is frequently revised weeks later. Sometimes, the revised figure tells a completely different story.

One number. Massive impact. It's already partially outdated the moment it's published.

That's GDP. It's flawed and lagging, yet it's still the most watched figure in global economics. 👀

07/08/2026

Germany just hit a record in exports - but the full picture is more interesting.

In June 2026, German exports reached €139.3 billion - a new all-time high, up 6.6% compared to the same month last year. On the surface, that's a strong number for Europe's largest economy.

But imports grew even faster. At €123.9 billion, they jumped 8.4% year-on-year, which pushed the trade surplus down to €15.4 billion - narrower than May's figure.

The trade partner breakdown is where it gets nuanced:

🇺🇸 US - Exports dropped sharply to €12.1 billion. Imports from the US also fell.

🇨🇳 China - Still Germany's largest source of imports at €16.5 billion, but German exports to China slipped slightly to €6.2 billion. The imbalance here is hard to ignore.

🇬🇧 UK - A brighter spot. Exports rose to €7.3 billion while imports from the UK dropped significantly.

For the first half of 2026 overall, exports are up 3.7% and imports up 4.4% - meaning Germany is buying more from the world than it's selling, relatively speaking.

05/08/2026

Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency. You have heard about it and probably traded it. And sometimes - it works exactly like that.

But sometimes the central bank raises rates and the currency drops. And suddenly nothing makes sense.🤔

Here's what's actually going on~

🧐Markets don't react to what happens. They react to what happens in relation to what was already expected. By the time a rate hike is announced, traders have usually been anticipating it in for weeks, or even months. When the decision is made, there's nothing left to buy. So they sell. It's the classic case of 'buy the rumour, sell the news'.

👉Then there's the growth angle. Rate hikes slow borrowing. They slow spending. If they are pushed too far, the market will no longer see them as a sign of strength, but as a threat to economic growth. A currency can weaken following a rate hike if traders believe that the central bank has made a policy mistake.

🔠Forward guidance matters just as much as the decision itself. A hike paired with dovish language about future cuts? The market will trade the language, not the number.

🔎Then there are relative rates to consider. A 25-basis-point hike means very little if every other major central bank is hiking faster.

Rate hikes tend to support currencies. But the relationship is never that simple — and trading it like it is will eventually catch you out.

Context isn't optional. In forex, it's everything. 📊

31/07/2026

A 20% return sounds impressive...

Until you find out *how much risk it took to get there* 📈⚖️

That's why experienced investors don't judge performance by returns alone. One metric helps reveal whether those gains were actually worth the ride.

Do you know what the Sharpe ratio adjusts returns for?

Share your answer below 👇

28/07/2026

The forex market never sleeps. But that doesn't mean every hour is worth your time.

"24-hour market" sounds like a dream. Trade whenever you want. No opening bell, no closing bell. Total freedom.

And technically - yes, that's true. But here's what nobody puts in the caption:

3am liquidity is not 9am London liquidity. Not even close.

The forex market runs in sessions. London, New York, Tokyo, Sydney. Each one brings its own volume, its own volatility, its own character. When London and New York overlap - that window right there is where the real action lives. Tight spreads, deep liquidity, price actually moving with purpose.

Outside of that? The market is still open. But it can feel like a completely different place. Wider spreads. Thinner volume. Price moving in ways that don't always make sense.

So yes - 24 hours of opportunity. But not 24 equal hours.

The traders who understand this don't just ask what to trade. They ask when. Same setup, different session - completely different result.

The market being open doesn't mean it's inviting you in. Sometimes the smartest trade is knowing which hours actually work for your strategy - and ignoring the rest, no matter how tempting it is to check the charts at midnight.

Time the session, not just the trade. 🕐

24/07/2026

It was a busy week across markets, with UK macro data and major US earnings results taking center stage.

🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales - Holding Strong
British retail had another solid quarter. Sales volumes rose 1.0% in June and 0.6% across Q2, sitting 4.2% higher than a year ago and now above pre-pandemic levels. The second warmest June on record drove demand for seasonal products, while online retail hit its highest share of total sales since April 2021 - 29.4%. The one soft spot was automotive fuel, where sales dipped as motorists pulled back on spending.

🇬🇧 UK Inflation - Cooling Down
UK CPI dropped to 2.6% in June, its lowest reading since 2024. Cheaper fuel was the main driver, with petrol prices falling for the first time since Middle East tensions escalated earlier this year. Food price growth also slowed to its lowest rate in nearly two years. On the flip side, rents and hospitality costs kept climbing. The UK's inflation rate is now below the EU average - a meaningful shift worth watching.

📈 Alphabet (GOOGL) Q2 2026 - AI Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
Google's parent company posted $119.8 billion in revenue, up 24% year-over-year - twelve consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. The headline number was Google Cloud, which surged 82% to $24.8 billion on the back of enterprise AI demand. Search and YouTube remained strong contributors. CapEx doubled year-over-year to $44.9 billion as Alphabet continues to go all-in on AI infrastructure, with full-year spending guidance now raised to $195–$205 billion.

🚗 General Motors (GM) Q2 2026 - Quietly Impressive
GM delivered $48 billion in revenue and adjusted EBIT of $3.94 billion, up nearly 30% year-over-year. North American operations drove much of the strength, with trucks, SUVs, and commercial fleets performing well. Full-year guidance was raised, and the company declared a $0.18 quarterly dividend - solid fundamentals across the board.

The bigger picture this week: UK consumers are spending, inflation is easing, and US corporate earnings are coming in strong - particularly in AI-linked businesses. Markets have plenty to digest heading into next week.

21/07/2026

New Zealand's inflation just jumped to 4.1% :rocket:

That's a big move. Three months ago, the rates were sitting at 3.1%. It's now above the RBNZ's target range of 1–3%, so the conversation about what will happen next has become much more interesting.

So what's driving it? Fuel, mostly. Petrol is up 27.5% over the year, and diesel has risen by 71%. Fuel costs alone account for almost a quarter of the entire inflation reading. If you remove fuel from the equation, inflation would have been 2.9% - right within the target range.

Electricity prices have also risen by 12%. Local authority rates have increased by 8.8%. Building costs are rising, too. Furthermore, the price of more than 80% of items in the CPI basket has increased over the past year.

It's that final figure that's important. When price increases are that widespread, the issue becomes an 'everything' story, not just a fuel story.

For NZD traders, all eyes now turn to how the RBNZ responds to inflation running this far above target :eyes:
🔗https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/market-news/Fundamental-Analysis/155510/

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