https://woodgundyadvisors.cibc.com/lori-johnson/home

Lori D. Johnson, Investment Advisor, CIBC Wood Gundy, 1000/One Lombard Place, Winnipeg, MB (2026)

02/10/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 10, 2026

𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲

Last Friday, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s economy lost jobs in January, ending four consecutive months of job gains. Canada’s labour market has come under the spotlight as US tariffs weigh on several key sectors of Canada’s economy. Mid-2025, labour market conditions deteriorated and trade uncertainty heightened. However, late in the year, the job market appeared to stabilize as the economy added jobs and the labour market came down. January’s report gave mixed signals, which left investors unsure how this may impact the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decisions.

• 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝟐𝟒,𝟖𝟎𝟎 𝐣𝐨𝐛𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲, which was the first month of job
losses since August. January’s decline was driven by 69,700 job losses in the
part-time sector. The decline in the part-time sector was partially offset by 44,90
job additions in the full-time sector.

• 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 lost the most jobs over the month.
Conversely, the culture and recreation industry added jobs in January.

• 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝟗𝟒,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐬 left the job market as they stopped
searching for work, pushing the participation rate lower to 65.0%, which has been
its lowest level since May 2021.

• 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 of unemployed persons declining and a lower
participation rate, Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5%. This matched
November 2025 as the lowest unemployment rate since September 2024. .

Despite the job losses in January, the report was largely positive. Several market participants noted that the part-time job losses resulted from an increase in part-time hiring over the holiday season. Furthermore, the unemployment rate came down, which may reduce any concerns from the BoC. Canada’s job market remains relatively stable, representative of the overall economy, which has proved its resiliency despite being challenged with trade disruptions with the US.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/09/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 9, 2026

𝐔𝐒 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐛 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭

Canada will take a bit of a break from scheduled economic announcements this week. Still, there will be a couple that markets will closely monitor. Meanwhile, there will be plenty of critical announcements out of the US that’ll shape expectations for the US Federal Reserve Board’s next interest rate decision. Here’s what to watch for this week.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 (BoC) Summary of Deliberations will be released on
Wednesday. At its January meeting, the BoC held its policy interest rate steady at
2.25%, believing it is in a good position to keep inflation contained and support
the Canadian economy.

• 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬 for December will also be announced on
Wednesday. Building permits fell by 13.1% in November, which largely offset
October’s increase. Increasing the housing supply has been an area of focus for
the Canadian government.

• 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫, US retail sales, labour market data, existing home sales and
inflation will be released this week.

• 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞, China’s inflation rate will be announced on Tuesday, Japan’s
producer prices on Wednesday and the UK and Europe’s gross domestic product
on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

• 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 include those from Cineplex,
Shopify, West Fraser Timber, Birchcliff Energy, TELUS, Air Canada, Enbridge and
Hydro One. Key earnings announcements in the US include those from CVS
Health, Coca-Cola, Ford Motor and McDonald’s.

Canada’s scheduled economic announcements will be quiet this week but will pick up next week as we head towards another interest rate decision by the BoC. The BoC’s Summary of Deliberations will give some insight into what BoC policymakers were thinking about the Canadian economy and interest rates at their January meeting. The US is scheduled to release some key economic data, which will impact financial markets and monetary policy decisions.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/06/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 6, 2026

Fitch cautions that Canadian economic growth could slow

Fitch Ratings (Fitch) expects Canada’s economic growth to slow this year as the country faces a slew of challenges, particularly trade uncertainty with the US. Canada’s economy expanded over 2025, but growth was stunted by US tariffs. The ratings agency believes that Canadian exporters have adapted well to trade tensions with the US, but trade disruptions still had an impact on overall economic conditions. Moving across the Atlantic, two major central banks held interest rates steady yesterday.

• 𝐅𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐛𝐲 𝟏.𝟏% in 2026, which would be
down from the estimated 1.6% rate of growth in 2025. According to Fitch,
Canada’s economic growth will slow in part due to slow personal spending and
ongoing trade tensions.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 expects consumer spending to continue to slow this year,
hindered by stalling wage growth and lower immigration. Additionally, consumer
confidence is relatively low amid uncertainty about the economy.

• 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭, Fitch projects that the unemployment rate has
peaked, but more in response to lower population growth than hiring activity.

• 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩𝐞𝐝 by a stable labour market and lower interest rates,
the latter of which has helped lower borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada has
held its policy interest rate steady at recent meetings, believing its rate is at an
appropriate level.

• 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬, the European Central Bank and Bank of England
both held their policy interest rates steady at their first meetings of 2026,
believing their rates are at a level to help support their respective economies.

Fitch noted that trade tensions could be less uncertain this year, but there remains the overhang of the results of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review. Despite several risks facing Canada’s economy, it is still expected to grow over 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Efforts to diversify trade and improve investment may help keep the economy resilient in 2026.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/05/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 5, 2026

𝐓𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐝 𝐣𝐨𝐛 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒

New data showed that labour market conditions in the US remain relatively soft. While job losses have been limited, so have job additions. Several economists have referred to the current conditions as “low hire, low fire.” The labour market began to slow in 2025 as businesses pulled back on spending amid economic uncertainty, while economic activity moderated. The increase in the unemployment rate was a key factor in the US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) lowering interest rates three times at the end of 2025.

• 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝟐𝟐,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐣𝐨𝐛𝐬 in January, dropping from the
downwardly revised 37,000 job additions in December, according to Automatic
Data Processing (ADP). Private business added jobs over the second half of 2025
and into 2026, but at a slower pace than in previous years.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫 added the most jobs over the month but was partially
offset by a decline in jobs in the professional and business services industry.

• 𝐀𝐃𝐏 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 that wage growth has remained stable despite the slowdown in
job growth.

• 𝐈𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America
reported that the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 6.24% to 6.21%
over the week ended January 30. Mortgage rates have dropped steadily since last
May, due in part to the Fed lowering interest rates.

• 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 declined by 8.9% over the same week, its second straight
decline. Despite lower mortgage rates, uncertainty continues to weigh on
purchasing decisions.

Policy, trade and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on consumer and business confidence in the US. Two areas of the US economy that have slowed in response have been the labour and real estate markets. Despite easing slightly in December 2025, the US unemployment rate reached 4.5% in November, its highest level since 2021. Real estate activity in the US has been soft amid sluggish demand.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/04/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 4, 2026

𝐔𝐒 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐬

There was plenty of company news out of the US that demonstrates the health of the US economy and expectations for where it is headed. The US stock market has seen robust growth over the past few years, which has sent a few companies to a US$1-trillion market capitalization. A US retail giant is the latest to enter that rare club. And a deal between two of Elon Musk’s companies values another company at over US$1 trillion. Meanwhile, the US government reached a trade agreement with India, easing tensions between the two countries.

• 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐜. 𝐭𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 of US$1 trillion during yesterday’s
stock market session. This is a big win for the retail behemoth, which has grown
its ecommerce business, while seeing improved traffic at its stores in response to
tight financial conditions in recent years.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐞-𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐛 has largely been reserved for technology
heavyweights. However, a few other companies have gotten past the threshold.

• 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬, two of Elon Musk’s companies have come
together in a deal that valued the combined company at US$1.25 trillion. Space
Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) will acquire X.AI Corp. Musk hopes the
company will lead innovation here on Earth and in space.

• 𝐏𝐞𝐩𝐬𝐢𝐂𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐜. 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫-𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧-𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 in the fourth quarter of
2025. However, the company has seen slower sales growth over the past few
years. PepsiCo plans to lower retail prices for key brands, including Lay’s and
Doritos.

There were plenty of corporate news stories out of the US yesterday. A day prior, it was announced that the US and India agreed to lower tariffs, which might help repair the relationship between the two countries. The US will lower tariffs on Indian products, while India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil. Year-to-date, US equity markets have been largely flat.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/03/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 3, 2026

𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲

S&P Global reported that Canada’s manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in 12 months. Manufacturing activity had contracted for 11 consecutive months as U.S. tariffs hindered activity in key Canadian sectors, such as lumber, automotive, aluminum and steel. January was a pleasant surprise, suggesting that manufacturing activity could be picking up, which will help Canada’s overall economic activity. That would be a positive start to 2026 after data from Statistics Canada (StatsCan) on Friday showed that Canada’s economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒&𝐏 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 moved
higher to 50.4 in January from 48.6 in the previous month, marking its first
expansion since the beginning of 2025 before tariffs were imposed. For the
previous 11 months, Canada’s manufacturing industry was hurt by falling output
and new orders.

• 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐮𝐭 contributed to January’s expansion. Amid stable output and hopes
for better conditions ahead, employment at manufacturers increased, which was
its first increase in 12 months.

• 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 but at a slower pace in January over
December.

• 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲, feelings about the economy erred towards cautiousness. StatsCan
reported that Canada’s gross domestic product growth stalled in November (0.0%
growth). Stronger services sector activity was offset by weakness in the goods
producing industries.

• 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐬𝐂𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 may have risen by 0.1% in
December. After the sharp fall in October, data is pointing to a potential
contraction over the final quarter of 2025.

Last Friday, Canadian equities sank in part due to the sharp fall in precious metals and concerns over the Canadian economy. However, yesterday’s manufacturing report offers some hope this key sector of Canada’s economy may be improving, despite ongoing trade tensions with the US. Economic activity has been relatively shaky but resilient, helping Canada’s economy avoid a recession, which was once feared in 2025 to occur.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

02/02/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: February 2, 2026

𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚

January 2026 is officially in the books. Global equity markets moved higher despite geopolitical tensions and concerns about the global economy. Commodity prices surged higher, with gold, silver and copper reaching new record-high prices. Canada made progress towards diversifying trade, particularly with China, India and South Korea. There will be several critical economic announcements in Canada and elsewhere this week. Here’s what to watch for.

• 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 for the month of January will be announced
today. Manufacturing activity in Canada has contracted for 11 consecutive
months, in large part due to trade tensions with the US, which imposed substantial
tariffs on key sectors of Canada’s economy.

• 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 will release Canada’s labour market data on Friday. Canada’s
economy added 8,200 jobs in December, its fourth straight increase, suggesting
the labour market is stabilizing. The unemployment rate stood at 6.8% at the end
of 2025.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 will be announced on Friday. The jobless rate fell to
4.4% in December, largely due to the number of unemployed persons declining.

• 𝐓𝐰𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 will make announcements this week. The European
Central Bank and Bank of England make their interest rate decisions on Thursday.

• 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 include Suncor Energy, BCE, Barrick Mining, TMX and
Saputo. Notable earnings in the US include Walt Disney, PepsiCo, Pfizer, AMD,
Uber, Alphabet and Amazon.com.

Besides economic announcements, investors will have to pay close attention to developments in geopolitics and trade, which has been a key theme over the past year. The Bank of Canada said that Canada’s economy stalled in the fourth quarter of 2025 but is expected to expand in 2026, albeit at a relatively soft pace. Canada’s economy has shown its resiliency despite trade disruptions with its largest trade partner. Canada is hoping for a positive resolution to the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

01/30/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: January 30, 2026

Canada sees another monthly trade deficit

Canada’s economy ran a trade deficit for a second straight month in November. November’s deficit was driven by a drop in exports, including shipments to the US. Canada’s trade activity has been closely monitored as the US imposed significant tariffs on key industries in Canada. Now, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is up for renewal, which is adding to uncertainty about Canada’s trade ties with the US.

• 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 $𝟐.𝟐 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 from $400
million in October. This is Canada’s second straight deficit after posting a small
surplus in September. Exports declined at a faster pace than imports in
November, widening the trade deficit.

• 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝟐.𝟖% 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 over the previous month to $63.9 billion.
Lower exports were concentrated in just a few industries. Overall, exports rose in
eight of 11 industries. The biggest declines were seen for metal and non-metal
mineral products and motor vehicles and parts. Exports to the US continued to
decline.

• 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐨 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫, dropping by 0.1% to $66.1 billion. There was a decline
in purchases of energy products and motor vehicles and parts.

• 𝐔𝐒 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 was also released yesterday. Like Canada, the US
trade deficit widened over the month. Exports fell from the record high reached in
October. Conversely, imports increased.

The importance of trade to Canada’s economy cannot be understated. The Canadian government is trying to diversify trade to offset the losses from the US. This has been evident in China resuming canola purchases from Canada and Canada improving trade ties with India. The Canadian Prime Minister and provincial Premiers met over the past two days to talk about the country’s trade with the US and how to approach the review of CUSMA. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady but noted that risks to Canada’s economic activity persist, including trade and geopolitical tensions.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

01/29/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: January 29, 2026

Uncertainty mounts amid new tariff threats

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its first meeting of 2026, where it elected to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady. Canada’s economy has proved its resiliency, and inflation has largely been contained near the BoC’s 2% target, which has kept the BoC from making any changes to its policy interest rate at its last two meetings. The BoC did note that recent tariff threats from the US have raised risks to its outlook. The US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) also held its policy interest rate steady yesterday.

• 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 steady at 2.25%. After
lowering interest rates in October 2025, the BoC has held steady at two straight
meetings, in line with its guidance and economists’ expectations, based on a
Bloomberg survey.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐂 said that higher inflation in December was largely driven by base year
effects from the HST holiday that began in December 2024. The central bank
expects Canada’s economic growth to have moderated in the fourth quarter of
2025.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐂 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 to expand moderately in 2026, while
inflation should remain close to its 2% target.

• 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 heightened risks to its outlook. Economic
uncertainty persists and in response, the BoC said it could shift its policy interest
rate up or down depending on how economic conditions evolve.

• 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫, the Fed held its federal funds rate steady at a target range
of 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed had previously lowered interest rates at three straight
meetings.

The BoC offered little guidance on more interest rate cuts but did note the current level is accommodative. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem made a point of saying that another interest rate change could go in either direction given an uncertain outlook to trade. Trade tensions persist, but Canada has been able to offset some losses to the US with trade diversification efforts.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

01/28/2026

𝐌𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐅: January 28, 2026

US consumer confidence drops

US consumer confidence declined in January amid persistent concerns about the US economy. Geopolitical tensions ramped up early in 2026 in Venezuela and Iran, and concerns of more trade tensions between the US and Europe over control of Greenland. While concerns over Greenland have eased and no new tariffs were imposed, concerns that trade policy could rapidly change has worried US consumers.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 fell to 84.5 in January
from a revised 94.2 in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading of
consumer confidence since 2014. The readings of the present situation and future
expectations both declined in January.

• 𝐔𝐒 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐣𝐨𝐛 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭.The labour market
has cooled off over the past few months with expectations this will continue. The
labour market has been marked by fewer job losses but little job gains.

• 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧 for US consumers. Inflation has come down but
remains elevated. Consumers cited the negative impact of higher prices for gas
and groceries.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐩𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲.Compared to the
previous month, more consumers expect business conditions to be worse in the
next six months.

• 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.Escalation of trade, policy and
geopolitical risks cloud the outlook for the US economy and financial markets.
Yesterday, the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022.

The US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) will make its interest rate decision today, its first this year. The Fed lowered interest rates at three straight meetings in 2025 in large part due to a slowing labour market. Inflation remains high, leaving Fed officials unsure if it will come down further or persist at these levels. Between inflation and geopolitical risks, the Fed has a lot to consider as it makes its interest rate decision.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

01/23/2026

𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐫𝐞 𝐀𝐩𝐞𝐫ç𝐮 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡é𝐬: 23 janvier 2026

Tensions inflationnistes persistantes aux États-Unis

Le US Bureau of Economic Analysis a publié hier les données de l’indice des prix des dépenses personnelles de consommation (DPC). L’annonce portait aussi sur les résultats d’octobre et de novembre, initialement retardés en raison de la paralysie du gouvernement américain à l’automne. L’indice des DPC est l’indicateur d’inflation privilégié de la Réserve fédérale américaine (Fed), notamment pour établir les perspectives d’inflation aux États-Unis et prendre des décisions de politique monétaire. L’inflation a diminué aux États-Unis, mais le fait qu’elle reste supérieure à la cible de 2 % inquiète les dirigeants de la Fed.

• 𝐋’𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐏𝐂 𝐬’𝐞𝐬𝐭 é𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐢 à 𝟐,𝟖 % 𝐬𝐮𝐫 𝟏𝟐 𝐦𝐨𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐧 𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐫𝐞, en hausse par
rapport à 2,7 % en octobre. L’indicateur d’inflation privilégié de la Fed demeure à
son plus haut niveau de 2025, ce qui semble être le signe de pressions
inflationnistes persistantes, malgré un certain ralentissement.

• 𝐋’𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐏𝐂 𝐝𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞, qui exclut les éléments plus volatils, s’est aussi établi
à 2,8 % sur 12 mois en novembre. Sur une base mensuelle, il a crû de 0,2 %.

• 𝐋𝐚 𝐯𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐞𝐮𝐫 𝐝𝐞 𝐥𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐮𝐱 É𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐬-𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐬 a continué de se manifester en
novembre. Les dépenses personnelles ont progressé de 0,5 %, stimulées par la
hausse des ventes d’automobiles, d’essence et de services.

• 𝐀𝐮𝐱 É𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐬-𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐬, 𝐥𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐥 a augmenté de 0,1 % en octobre et de 0,3 %
en novembre, inscrivant ainsi six hausses mensuelles de suite. Les salaires et les
revenus de dividendes personnels ont aussi progressé en novembre..

• 𝐏𝐚𝐫 𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐮𝐫𝐬, le résultat définitif de la croissance au troisième trimestre a été
publié hier. Selon les données actualisées, l’économie américaine a progressé de
4,4 % en rythme annualisé au troisième trimestre de 2025, et ainsi atteint son
rythme de croissance le plus rapide en deux ans.

La Fed communiquera sa première décision relative aux taux d’intérêt de 2026 la semaine prochaine. Les données d’hier ont renforcé les attentes de maintien du taux directeur par la Fed, selon un sondage de Bloomberg. L’inflation, qui demeure un peu élevée, cause des frictions entre les dirigeants de la Fed, car certains croient qu’elle baissera et d’autres, qu’elle restera aux niveaux actuels encore un bout de temps.

Si vous souhaitez discuter de cette mise à jour économique et boursière, ou si vous avez des questions sur vos finances et vos placements, n’hésitez pas à communiquer avec moi à votre convenance.

Lori D. Johnson, Investment Advisor, CIBC Wood Gundy

02/10/2026

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