01/11/2024
2023 YEAR END REVIEW / 2024 MORTGAGE OUTLOOK
As we bid farewell to 2023, it's time to reflect on the mortgage market and what lies ahead. The past year presented formidable challenges for borrowers, marked by the unprecedented surge in interest rates and inflation—the highest in over two decades. Fortunately, signs indicate that both rates and inflation have peaked in 2023 and are poised to recede in 2024.
For borrowers navigating renewals in 2023, the scarcity of short-term options posed a considerable challenge. The prevailing trend favoured longer-term solutions, making a decision to go Variable similar to betting on the Jets to win the Stanley Cup(which may not have been a bad idea now).
We emphasized to our clients the importance of initiating renewal, purchase, or refinance processes early, allowing them to lock in rates up to 120 days in advance. This strategic approach resulted in significant savings of up to 1% compared to what their existing lenders were offering, as rates continued to climb.
We advised against early renewal options, a decision that paid off handsomely for many clients. The Purchase/Sale and Refinance market experienced a notable slowdown, contributing to a decline in house prices across most Canadian regions. Remarkably, our brokerage witnessed the lowest level of mortgage business with the Big Banks in its 15+ year history. This national trend, illustrated in the graph below, indicates that the Big Banks accounted for only 60% of all mortgage business, a notable drop from the previous years' 75%.
This shift is attributed to the Big 6's deliberate reduction of exposure to Canadian mortgages, achieved by refraining from offering competitive rates. Consequently, many consumers opted for new mortgages outside the big institutions due to the favourable financial sense it made.
While 3-5 year fixed rates have seen recent declines, Variable rates are yet to follow suit. If you've held onto a Variable rate this far, it might not be the opportune time to lock in, as relief could be on the horizon.
As we venture into 2024, there's a prevailing sense that the era of inflation and rate hikes is behind us, paving the way for decreases. The exact timing and magnitude remain uncertain, with the Bank of Canada providing no clear indicators. However, the US Fed's recent suggestion of potential 0.25% drops in 2024 could translate to a significant relief for Variable rate holders, potentially reducing payments by up to 10%. It's worth noting that predicting market fluctuations is an intricate task, and certainty is elusive.
With the anticipation of a robust Renewal market in 2024, here's a guide for those with mortgages approaching renewal:
DO NOT EARLY RENEW: Exercise patience and enjoy the low rate you have.
Delay Finalization: Wait until the last possible moment to capitalize on future rate drops
Explore Options: Let us shop around for you.
Consider Amortization Extension: To mitigate potential rate and payment increases.
Refinance for Debt Consolidation: Explore this option to lower overall monthly payments in the face of financial hardship. Alternative options may be available if conventional financing doesn't work for you.
With rates expected to drop, Refinancing could become a viable option for some borrowers:
Tap into Home Equity: Utilize up to 80% for debt consolidation, home renovations, etc.
Explore Lending Options: Regardless of credit status, reasonable borrowing rates may be within reach.
Prospective Homebuyers in 2024 should consider these tips:
Port Your Mortgage: Avoid penalties and retain a portion of your new mortgage at your old(lower) rate.
Secure an Approval/Rate Hold Early: Also know that most lenders allow for adjustments with market drops—just ask.
First-Time Home Buyers: Contribute to an FHSA account before the end of 2023 and in 2024 for optimal benefits.
For any mortgage-related queries, reach out to us via phone or email. Here's to leaving behind the challenges of inflation and rate hikes in 2023, and to a year of improved borrowing options in 2024.
Wishing you a happy and prosperous 2024. May interest rates be low, and your savings be high!