10/11/2026
Why are mortgage rates moving again? 📉📈
Here is a quick breakdown of what’s driving the market right now and what it means for your mortgage:
1. What’s Behind the Shift?
Recent global conflicts have pushed crude oil prices up. In Canada, 5-year Government of Canada bond yields mirror oil prices —so as energy costs rose, fixed mortgage rates followed suit. Lenders are currently pricing in potential rate hikes through 2027, but the data suggests this market reaction may be overshooting reality.
2. Why Sustained Inflation Isn't Likely:
Energy acts as a consumer tax: Higher fuel costs leave households with less disposable cash, naturally slowing down overall consumer spending.
Wage growth is cooling: Wage inflation dropped to 2.0% in August—its lowest non-pandemic level in 9 years.
Businesses are absorbing costs: Bank of Canada data shows ~40% of Canadian companies chose to absorb higher costs rather than pass them on to consumers.
Bottom line: The core fundamentals point toward cooling economic growth, not runaway inflation.
Fixed vs. Variable: Which Strategy Wins?
🔒 Fixed Rates: Best for stability and peace of mind. While up-front costs are higher today, locking in protects your budget from market volatility.
📉 Variable Rates: Best for long-term savings potential. While short-term fluctuations are expected, history shows variable rates often lower lifetime interest costs (provided you have the financial flexibility to absorb temporary swings).
There is no one-size-fits-all answer. The right path depends entirely on your budget, timeline, and risk comfort.
Thinking about renewing, refinancing, or purchasing soon? Let’s chat strategy! 💬📲