Greg Guyatt - Mortgage Architects

03/29/2026

The Ontario government just announced a big expansion to the HST Rebate Program on newly constructed homes. It now applies to all buyers (not just first-time homebuyers) for a one-year period starting April 1, 2026.
On the surface, it sounds like a huge win — up to $130,000 off the HST on new homes valued up to $1 million (with a sliding scale for homes between $1M and $1.85M).
But here’s the reality most people miss: this rebate often functions more like a builder pricing tool than a true buyer benefit.

Here’s how it typically plays out:
The government provides the rebate
The builder factors (or “bakes”) that rebate into the advertised purchase price upfront
The buyer ends up paying it back through a higher base price.

In many cases, builders use the rebate as a marketing incentive while adjusting their pricing at their own discretion. There’s a good chance a big chunk of it is already built into the asking price.

Bottom line: The HST rebate is not automatically extra money in your pocket — it’s often just a condition of the deal. If you don’t qualify, or if the builder doesn’t fully pass it through, you could be on the hook for that amount out of pocket.
My advice when looking at new construction:

Always compare the total purchase price (including how the rebate is handled) against similar properties in the area
Carefully review the purchase agreement — especially the section on how the HST rebate is applied.

Don’t let the headline “$130,000 savings” distract you from the real numbers
If you’re thinking about a new build or have questions about how this affects your mortgage options (including renewals coming up), feel free to reach out. I’m happy to walk through the numbers with you and make sure you’re not overpaying.

03/18/2026

James E. Thorne


Chief Market Strategist
PhD Econ. Astute, observations and conclusions. Personal views. Not investment advice. Please do your own research.

A Master Class in Incompetence: the Bank of Canada.

High energy prices are deflationary: they squeeze real incomes, crush discretionary spending, and deter investment, so the ultimate macro effect is weaker growth and downward pressure on underlying inflation, not a permanent inflation spiral. Yet you should fully expect central bankers to ignore basic economic theory and, as they did with wages and tariffs, misread a negative supply shock in oil as the start of a permanent inflation regime rather than a growth shock with only temporary price effects. It is hard to describe that repeated error—treating every cost shock as a 1970s rerun, as anything other than total incompetence.

The Bank of Canada just delivered a masterclass in that incompetence: leaving rates unchanged as Canada heads for a hard landing is not caution, it is negligence—tight policy into a weakening, energy‑squeezed economy is how you turn a slowdown into a policy‑induced recession, then blame “inflation expectations” after the fact.

Send a message to learn more

02/24/2026

From James E. Thorne

James E. Thorne

·
For the record.

Macklem’s Fantasy Economics: Calling a Housing Recession “Resilience”

The most interest‑rate‑sensitive sector of the Canadian economy is already in a textbook recession, which should be the first clue to any serious practitioner that Macklem and the Bank of Canada have miscalibrated policy.

When the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy is in clear recession and Macklem insists the economy is “resilient,” it is not prudence, it is recklessness masquerading as sophistication.

With only 269 new homes sold in the Toronto area in January, the weakest since 1981, the new‑build market isn’t “cooling,” it has effectively seized up, and only a theorist divorced from reality would pretend otherwise.

No one should be surprised: this is precisely where the early warning signs pointed, yet the Bay Street chorus that sneered at those concerns two years ago has suddenly gone very quiet. And to think some on Bay Street were still confidently forecasting Bank of Canada hikes into this downturn, a comical display of model‑worship over judgment, now paid for by households, builders, and the real economy. Yes, another day in paradise.

Send a message to learn more

02/21/2026

Happy to be a proud sponsor of the U16 AAA Hamilton Steel.

Highlights and interviews from Sunday November 23rd between the Admirals and Steel at the Chedoke Arena in Hamilton.This video is presented in partnership wi...

04/20/2025

Not all lenders, programs and products are the same. Don't settle for renting...

04/04/2025

One issue that no one talks about is how prepayment penalties differ by each lender. This is important information to have in this potential falling rate environment.

03/21/2025

A Mortgage is not a "deal". Of the 57 lenders I have access to if everyone had the same rate, there are lenders whom I would not work with. Product features are often overlooked when signing a mortgage and understanding penalty and fee structure is paramount in today's rate environment. Education first!

Send a message to learn more

02/27/2025

I'll admit I really don't post a lot, but since I've been getting questions on tariffs and interest rates, I wrote a little blurb, note I'm not an economist, just a researcher.

How Do Donald Trump’s Tariffs Affect Interest Rates?

In Canada, the interest rates we pay on things like fixed-rate mortgages depend a lot on something called the 5-year Canadian bond yield. Think of the bond yield as the cost of oil and fixed rates as the price you pay for gas at the pump. When the yield changes, it takes a little time for fixed rates to catch up.

When U.S. President Donald Trump first said he’d put tariffs (extra taxes) on some Canadian goods, the 5-year bond yield dropped fast to 2.58%—a low we hadn’t seen since April 2022. This happened because investors got worried about Canada’s economy and moved their money into safer things like government bonds. They were afraid the tariffs could hurt Canada’s sales to the U.S., our biggest customer, and maybe even cause a recession.
But the yield didn’t stay low for long. After talks with Canada, Trump delayed the tariffs by 30 days, and the yield bounced back a bit to just over 2.62% by mid-week. This shows people calmed down a little since a trade war wasn’t happening right away. Still, the yield was lower than its high of 3.28% from mid-January 2025, meaning folks are still cautious about what might happen next.

There’s more to the story. The Bank of Canada has been lowering its main interest rate—it’s at 3.0% now and might drop more in 2025. This affects bond yields because it signals cheaper borrowing ahead. If the tariffs fully kick in and slow Canada’s economy, the Bank might cut rates even faster, maybe by another 0.5% to 1%. That would likely push bond yields down more as people expect tougher times and lower rates.
So, summing it up: Trump’s tariffs have mostly pushed the 5-year Canadian bond yield lower as of late February 2025. People are worried about economic growth and a possible trade fight. The yield has jumped around—dropping when tariffs were announced and rising a bit when they were delayed—but it’s still below its recent highs. This shows the market is getting ready for some bumpy days ahead.

Send a message to learn more

08/30/2024

Sounds about right...

08/27/2024

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2024/08/26/bank-of-canada-seen-cutting-rates-deeper-faster-over-next-year/

08/08/2024

With interest rates falling, the Canadian real estate market is expected to experience a shift ¹. Here are some potential changes:

- *Increased demand*: Lower interest rates can lead to increased demand for homes, as buyers can secure better mortgage rates and terms.
- *Higher prices*: As demand increases, home prices may rise, especially in regions with limited housing supply.
- *Improved affordability*: Falling interest rates can make homes more affordable for buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, as their mortgage payments will be lower.
- *Regional variations*: The impact of falling interest rates will vary across regions, with some areas experiencing more significant changes than others.

Keep in mind that the Canadian real estate market is diverse and influenced by various factors, including local economies, housing supply, and government policies ².

07/19/2024

I'm frequently asked where I think fixed rates and the overnight rate are going. Old School Rule: Ignore the rhetoric from Central Bankers and watch the 2 year bond yield if you want to know. Historically this has been a great indicator. Disclaimer: I'm not an economist.