08/21/2024
I have a big post that isn't typical of me but I wanted to say it finally. I'm not trying to be provocative but this is so easy to say that I hope I don't offend. I wonder if anyone else feels this way about our housing market?
I ask, "Is this a good time to buy?" The reason I wonder is because home prices have stalled the past few years and are tempered to lift as demand increases. Economics call it a negative correlation when home prices move "higher" directly to rates dropping "lower". Or when controls and punitive laws reduce. That is a simple relationship to prove easy enough.
Here is where things get interesting. Can we predict an added turbo boost to valuations going forward if, and when, rent controls and other Government meddling are modified? I studied the data and it is clear from these figures that rent controls and Government housing programs seriously hurt, and not help, the housing market long term. The controls ironically stress the supply of rentals and make it harder, not easier for those renters to find homes.
I witnessed this year for the first time people forced to sell because the renters actually cost them money. These folks were stuck with long time renters paying far too low a price. It is a "no win" value proposition where these same folks could not renew their mortgages at the best rates. This was because the rental income was too low for the banks to approve them. Those miniscule rent increases that were mandated by the Government got them votes but also a very sick economy. We all hope it is clear that home supply, prices and affordability must balance for investors to earn a fair market return on rentals and justify home building.
I share this knowing you pay for the upkeep, financing and taxes increased rising 45% in 5 years when you were bullied by the Government into passing only 10% on to the renters. The Government communicates clearly the heros who sacrifice to save and invest in this great country are the ones doing something wrong. What a topsy turvy way to reward folks who believe in this country and bet on the future.
Investors have walked away from this housing market because of Government mismanagement and over-reach. Period. Sales are flat and overall glum. For those seeking a good time to buy, perhaps now is the low? When bad policies change and incomes rise, and they will, it will boom again in this great province.
Remember it takes time to purge the damage.... So invest long term.
From what I've tried clumsily to question is, "are we at the bottom of valuations?" I believe we very well could be. What will keep you away or up at night is if you think inflation will return with higher rates?? .... Will rent controls continue unabated, with more Government bloating and meddling? Will it finally kill our free enterprise rental market under tonnage of more controls, taxes, fees and penalties?
I can playfully ask this as well. Maybe it is the Government's goal to penalize us??? Have they orchestrated the market to be where "only" the Government can participate in housing supply from now on? MMMM? Kind of like Moscow, circa 1975?
I have a report (link below) for anyone interested. Completed in 2019 by LandlordBC before COVID kicked. It is biased towards the owners however, it is a genuine effort to explain how the rent controls and lack of rental homes are related.
Link below.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrOuzmUF8Zmz64E1zbrFAx.;_ylu=Y29sbwNncTEEcG9zAzQEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1725467797/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2flandlordbc.ca%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2021%2f08%2fUNDERSTANDING-BCS-HISTORY-OF-RENT-CONTROLS-AND-TAX-POLICY-LR.pdf/RK=2/RS=O_JnseuduIJFQwiq62ITm7KmeZU-