08/08/2025
📉 Job Market Surprise: What It Could Mean for Interest Rates
Well, that took a turn. After June’s jobs report showed the strongest employment growth in six months, July just flipped the script — in a big way.
Canada lost more jobs in July than any month since January 2022. In fact, outside of the pandemic, it’s the steepest monthly job loss in seven years. That strong June report? It may have been more anomaly than trend.
So what does this mean for interest rates?
Markets are now pricing in at least a 0.25% rate cut by the Bank of Canada before year-end, and there’s now about a 40% chance of a cut as early as next month.
We’re also seeing the 5-year Canadian bond yield dropping, which could lead to lower 5-year fixed mortgage rates.
📊 Inflation data is still to come, and that will be the next big piece of the puzzle. But for now, this job report is raising some eyebrows — and potentially lowering some rates.
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/08/canada-unexpectedly-sheds-40800-jobs-most-since-pandemic/dg
The Canadian economy lost the most jobs since January 2022, and excluding the pandemic, it’s the largest drop in seven years.