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The market stopped debating if. Now it’s just when.A December rate hike is fully priced, and major forecasters who recen...
10/06/2026

The market stopped debating if. Now it’s just when.

A December rate hike is fully priced, and major forecasters who recently saw no hikes until 2027 are now moving their calls forward.

For mortgage borrowers, that makes the next few weeks worth paying attention to — especially if you’re renewing, buying, or debating fixed vs. variable.

Our October Mortgage Update breaks down what’s changed and what to consider before lenders reprice.

Read it here:
https://spinmortgage.com/mortgage-resources/articles/from-warning-to-countdown-what-october-means-for-your-mortgage

BoC held again. But this one felt different.Seventh straight hold. The decision wasn't the news — the tone was: inflatio...
09/03/2026

BoC held again. But this one felt different.

Seventh straight hold. The decision wasn't the news — the tone was: inflation risks are up, and Macklem said he's prepared to hike. More than once, if needed.

Markets heard it. The 5-year yield — the one that prices fixed mortgages — jumped to its highest level in over two years.

The honest read:

The "wait for a cut" era just ended. Markets went from pricing fall cuts to pricing hikes — nearly a coin toss by December.

What it means for you:

Renewing? Fixed rates haven't fully caught up to the bond market yet. A rate hold locks today's pricing as your worst case scenario.

On variable? If your budget can't absorb a payment bump, the conversation should happen now — not after the next decision.

Buying? A pre-approval with a rate hold just became your best friend. Check your expiry date.

Next decision: October 28th.

BoC held again today. Predictable. What's not predictable is what happens next 👇- Headline inflation looks worse than it...
07/15/2026

BoC held again today. Predictable. What's not predictable is what happens next 👇

- Headline inflation looks worse than it is. Once you strip out war-driven gas prices, the underlying number is sitting right near target.

- The economy actually picked up. Growth came in well above expectations this quarter. That's not a struggling economy needing rate relief.

- Traders and economists are not on the same page. Markets are now leaning toward a hike before year-end. The bank forecasts are split too — some see hikes coming, others don't.

- Oil is still the swing factor. A fresh escalation in the US-Iran conflict has markets on edge again. Macklem kept the door open today, saying if oil stays elevated and pressure spreads, "we may well need to raise interest rates".

Bottom line: if you're in variable hoping for relief, you're winning right now — but the setup favours a hike before it favours a cut.

BoC held again. Fifth time. Here's what it actually means.No surprise. No drama. Rates at 2.25% — and Governor Macklem b...
06/10/2026

BoC held again. Fifth time. Here's what it actually means.

No surprise. No drama. Rates at 2.25% — and Governor Macklem basically said nobody knows what comes next.

The honest read:

No hike, no cut, no timeline for either. The Bank is comfortable sitting on its hands — balancing a weak economy against energy-driven inflation risk.

Two scenarios on the table:

1. CUSMA talks go sideways → cuts possible

2. Iran drags on, energy stays elevated → consecutive hikes possible

Macklem said both out loud this morning. That's not reassuring. It's just honest.

What it means for you:

- Variable — not moving today, but the range of outcomes for the rest of 2026 just got wider in both directions.

- Buying or renewing — locking in certainty has real value when the guy running the Bank can't tell you which way rates are heading.

- Waiting for cuts — Some economists see a prolonged hold as the most likely outcome. Waiting has a cost.

Next decision: July 15th.

Questions? We're one message away.

Everyone's watching oil prices. Fair. But there's a bigger story almost nobody is talking about — and it could matter mo...
06/02/2026

Everyone's watching oil prices. Fair. But there's a bigger story almost nobody is talking about — and it could matter more for your mortgage than anything happening in the Middle East.

What's actually moving rates right now:

Oil is whipsawing. Every time it moves, bond yields follow — and fixed rates feel it.

Canada brushed up against a recession. Markets moved on. Your cost of living didn't.

BC housing has quietly shifted in buyers' favour. High inventory, stabilizing prices,
motivated sellers. The window is open.

AI's buildout — data centres, chips, construction — is one of the largest capital spending waves in history. That's inflationary before it's disinflationary. The payoff is coming. Just probably not yet.

The next 12–24 months carry more rate risk than most borrowers are pricing in. Full read at the link.

https://spinmortgage.com/mortgage-resources/articles/oil-ai-and-your-mortgage-whats-actually-moving-rates-right-now

The Bank of Canada just announced — rates are staying put. Again. Here's what that means for you 👇- Nothing changes toda...
04/29/2026

The Bank of Canada just announced — rates are staying put. Again. Here's what that means for you 👇

- Nothing changes today. Variable rates stay where they are. If you're already in a variable mortgage, you're not getting a surprise bill this month.

- Fixed rates are a different story. They move with bond markets, not the BoC — and bond markets are still watching every headline out of the Middle East.

- Cuts aren't coming anytime soon. A war driving oil prices higher has pushed inflation back up. The BoC isn't cutting until things calm down. Next decision is June 10.

- Renewing this year? Don't just sign whatever your lender sends you. That letter is not written in your favour. One conversation could save you thousands

Questions? We're one message away.

Fixed or variable? This month, the answer might be decided 11,000 km away.April Mortgage Minute 🏡- Rates: 3.60%–4.69% — ...
04/01/2026

Fixed or variable? This month, the answer might be decided 11,000 km away.

April Mortgage Minute 🏡

- Rates: 3.60%–4.69% — based on term, rate type, LTV, etc. Variable rates holding, fixed rates unsettled.

- Oil: Prices dipped on rumours Iran is ready to call it quits, but they're still elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, things get uglier.

- BoC & Fed: Both holding rates April 29. Markets have dialled back hike fears — for now.

- Renewing this year? 60–70% of Canadians are. One conversation could save you thousands (literally).

đź“– Read more: spinmortgage.com/mortgage-resources/articles/oil-chokepoint-holds-mortgage-rates-hostage

BoC held at 2.25%. Nobody's shocked. Here's why:- Inflation: 1.8%. Great! Until oil at $115 pushes it back towards 3%. L...
03/18/2026

BoC held at 2.25%. Nobody's shocked. Here's why:

- Inflation: 1.8%. Great! Until oil at $115 pushes it back towards 3%. Less great.
- Jobs: 84,000 lost. Unemployment: 6.7%. Economy: not exactly thriving.
- Housing: prices and sales both down again.
- Rate hike? A very long shot. 76% of forecasters agree — rates hold all year.

What about your mortgage?

- Variable/HELOC — no change. Breathe.
- Fixed — bond yields are jumpy. That quote you got? It has a shelf life.
- Renewing? Don't just sign your lender's letter. That's how they get you.
- Buying? Quiet market = less competition. Your move.

You know how every few months someone says “is this 2008 all over again”? Here’s what’s actually going on right now and ...
03/09/2026

You know how every few months someone says “is this 2008 all over again”?

Here’s what’s actually going on right now and why it matters if you own a home (or want to):

Oil just crossed $115/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz — where 20% of the world’s oil flows — is blocked. Gas prices could nearly double by the end of March.

The good news? Canada and the US are way less vulnerable to oil shocks than we were 30 years ago. We’re net energy exporters. Our economies run on services more than fuel.

The catch? Rising oil is inflationary. And when inflation sticks around, the Bank of Canada gets cautious about cutting rates. That affects your variable rate, your qualifying rate, and how much house you can afford.

Nobody needs to panic. But if you’ve been “waiting for rates to drop” as your whole strategy — let’s talk about a Plan B. Or at least a Plan A that actually accounts for this stuff.

https://spinmortgage.com/mortgage-resources/articles/the-week-explained-without-the-anxiety-spiral

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