09/11/2026
Canada Mortgage & Rate Update
🇨🇦 Canada lost 42,000 jobs in August, vs. expectations of +15,000. Unemployment stayed at 6.4%, while manufacturing added 22,000 jobs.
🛢️ Oil crossed US$100/barrel, adding inflation concerns.
🏦 Current odds: 61% hold at 2.25% in October, 39% chance of a 0.25% increase. 0% chance of a cut currently.
🏠 Fixed rates remain under pressure as the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield reached 3.44%. Variable rates continue to depend on the Bank of Canada and prime.
Bottom line: Weak jobs support the possibility of future rate relief, but high oil prices could delay it. For anyone renewing soon, it’s important to review your options early.
Tabasum Bazaz
Mortgage Broker