02/04/2026
This image has been floating around…what does it REALLY mean in mortgage terms?
Big 6 banks are projecting:
🔹 TD, CIBC & BMO – Holding steady around 2.25% through 2026–2027
🔹 NBC – Gradual increase to 2.75%
🔹 Scotiabank – Moving higher to 3.00%
🔹 RBC – Most aggressive outlook at 3.25% by Q4 2027
Let’s play this out as if we have a mortgage of $800,000, 25 year amortization, using the policy rate and changes according to each lenders projection.
📊 Year 1 Impact
Scenario Principal Interest Total P&I Balance
TD/CIBC/BMO $24,116 $17,752 $41,869 $775,884
NBC $23,728 $18,728 $42,456 $776,272
Scotia $23,532 $19,221 $42,753 $776,468
RBC $24,116 $17,752 $41,869 $775,884
Here’s the main takeaways:
1. Each of these scenarios are expected to play out near the end of the year. One thing that we should realize is that the longer the projection, the less likely they are to materialize.
2. There are many volatile variables currently playing out that need to find resolution before considering a plausible direction for the policy interest rate.
3. The lower your rate, the more you pay in principal, and the longer you can hold it, the lower your principal is at maturity. So if rates go up later in the year, you would have already paid down more of your principal than if you take a higher rate fixed in this market.
4. All considerations when it comes to rate and product should be based around your risk tolerance. There’s no sense in a variable rate if it’s going to keep you up at night.
5. Variable rates are the only products affected by fluctuating policy rates, AND you can lock your rate in at anytime.
CIBC, TD and BMO are typically the most accurate forecasters..