01/28/2026
☕️ Bank of Canada: no change today. No rate mojo.
Rates stay put — and the base case is unchanged for most (if not all) of the year. Growth remains sluggish, with GDP projected at 1.10% this year and 1.50% next, while CUSMA renegotiation risk hangs in the background.
📊 Inflation check:
Recent upticks mostly reflect last year’s GST holiday falling out of the data. The Bank still expects CPI to hover near 2.00% — but day-to-day costs tell a different story:
☕️ Coffee: +30.00% YoY
🥩 Beef: +17.00% YoY
🍽️ Dining out: +8.50% YoY
🍷 Drinks: +6.50% YoY
(If you don’t eat… inflation’s looking great 😅)
📈 Rates looking ahead:
Expectations now lean slightly toward higher rates, not cuts. None of the Big 6 are calling for reductions, and 2 banks see up to 0.50% of hikes by end-2026.
If you’re in a variable with the plan to eventually lock into a fixed — and you don’t expect to break your mortgage — it may be worth checking your lock-in option now. History still favors riding variables, but plans matter more than averages.
🌎 Big wildcard: CUSMA.
A negative outcome could mean weaker GDP, a softer loonie, and renewed inflation pressure.
🧠 As the Bank put it today:
“Uncertainty is heightened & we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.”
🔑 With a wave of renewals coming this year, the best move is getting ahead of it early, building a plan, and not leaving options on the table.
Reach out if you want to talk strategy. Have a great week 👋
