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Oakwater Wealth Counsel - Harbourfront Wealth Management, The Marine Building, 355 Burrard Street, Suite 510, Vancouver, BC (2026)

06/10/2026

Register for our June 17 webinar featuring our Senior Portfolio Manager, Wes Ashton, and Harbourfront Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, Theresa Shutt, where they will provide a timely discussion on the economic backdrop, market outlook, portfolio positioning, and the key themes investors should be watching as we move through the second half of 2026.

Save your spot: https://info.oakwaterwealth.com/harbourfront-live-update-june-17-2026

06/08/2026

Canada’s GDP data last week confirmed what softer monthly indicators have been signalling for some time: the economy has slipped into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Real GDP contracted modestly in Q1 following a decline in Q4, marking back-to-back quarters of weakness. While the headline will draw attention, the more important takeaway is that this is not a collapse in activity, but a clear loss of momentum.

The details matter. Business investment has now fallen for five straight quarters, as companies continue to delay spending amid trade uncertainty and weaker confidence. Domestic demand has also softened, suggesting households and firms are becoming more cautious. Consumption is still growing, but only just, and not enough to fully offset the drag elsewhere in the economy. Early estimates for April point to a small rebound, led by energy activity, but the broader trend remains uneven rather than decisively improving.

What stands out most, however, is the disconnect between the economic data and market performance. Despite a slowing economy and recession headlines, Canadian equities have held up well and, in some cases, delivered strong returns. That divergence is important. It reflects the reality that markets are not simply a mirror of domestic GDP. In Canada’s case, equity performance is driven heavily by commodities, financials, global demand, and interest rate expectations rather than the pace of local growth.

A key source of near-term uncertainty remains the upcoming CUSMA review on July 1. Even though the agreement does not immediately expire, the negotiation window introduces a period of policy ambiguity that tends to weigh on business investment decisions. Firms generally respond to this kind of uncertainty by delaying capital spending, which is already visible in the data. The issue is less about the final outcome and more about how long it takes to get there.

For the Bank of Canada, the challenge is balancing weak domestic growth against inflation that is still being influenced by global factors like energy prices. That combination limits the effectiveness of further tightening, while also making policymakers reluctant to ease too quickly. Markets are currently pricing a steady policy path in the near term, which leaves financial conditions restrictive even without additional rate cuts.

For investors, the key takeaway is that weaker macro data does not automatically translate into weaker markets. However, it does reinforce the importance of selectivity. In this environment, earnings quality, balance sheet strength, and global exposure matter more than sensitivity to Canadian end-demand. The economy is cooling, but markets are already looking through parts of that slowdown.

06/01/2026

Investors today are navigating an extraordinary amount of uncertainty.

War in Europe. Escalating tensions in the Middle East. Sticky inflation. High interest rates. Rising government debt. Political polarization. Yet despite the steady stream of negative headlines, markets continue to move higher.

This raises an important question: are investors becoming too comfortable with risk?

Historically, markets have shown a remarkable ability to recover from geopolitical events. While headlines can create short term volatility, most crises do not permanently derail economic growth or corporate earnings. Investors understand this and increasingly appear willing to look through uncertainty rather than react emotionally to it.

In many respects, that resilience is justified.

Most geopolitical events only become lasting market problems when they materially impact economic fundamentals. So far, consumers continue to spend, employment remains healthy, corporate earnings have generally held up, and the global economy continues to expand at a reasonable pace.

Perhaps most importantly, energy markets remain relatively contained. Unlike previous decades, today’s economies are less energy intensive, supply chains are more diversified, and central banks have greater credibility in managing inflation expectations. Markets understand this, which is why many geopolitical selloffs have been viewed as temporary rather than structural.

Still, there are signs that investors may be underpricing certain risks beneath the surface.

Market leadership has become increasingly concentrated in a small group of mega cap technology companies. Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and future productivity gains has fueled strong momentum, but elevated expectations can also create fragility if growth disappoints.

The greater risk for investors is often not fear, but the belief that risk no longer matters. When markets absorb repeated shocks without consequence, investors can begin assuming future risks will be equally manageable. That assumption deserves careful attention.

This is not an argument for becoming defensive or reacting emotionally to headlines. Attempting to time geopolitical events is rarely productive. Rather, periods like this reinforce the importance of diversification, disciplined portfolio construction, and maintaining a long-term perspective.

Markets may be tuning out risk. Successful investors should remain aware of it.

05/19/2026

Last week’s U.S. inflation data served as another reminder that the path back toward lower interest rates may be slower than investors had hoped. April inflation rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest annual reading in nearly three years, with both consumer and producer prices surprising to the upside. More importantly, inflation pressures are no longer isolated to energy alone. Services, housing, and broader input costs continue to show persistence across the economy.

At the beginning of the year, markets were expecting multiple interest rate cuts in 2026. Those expectations are now being reassessed quickly. The latest inflation data likely keeps the U.S. Federal Reserve firmly on hold for the foreseeable future, and investors are increasingly being forced to consider whether rates may remain elevated longer than previously expected.

One emerging risk is the potential for renewed energy-driven inflation. Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to create uncertainty around global oil supply and pricing. If oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, inflationary pressures could become more persistent globally, complicating the path toward lower interest rates for central banks.

For Canadian investors, this matters more than many realize.

While the Bank of Canada sets domestic monetary policy independently, U.S. interest rates and global bond markets heavily influence Canadian borrowing costs, mortgage rates, currency movements, and overall investor sentiment. Higher global rates can continue to pressure highly leveraged households, commercial real estate, and other financing-sensitive areas of the economy.

At the same time, the past six weeks have been an important reminder of how quickly market sentiment can shift. Earlier concerns surrounding recession and market weakness have given way to renewed strength in equity markets, with a remarkably strong earnings season helping reinforce confidence in the underlying resilience of corporate fundamentals.

For investors, the more durable focus remains on building portfolios designed to withstand changing environments rather than reacting to every short-term narrative shift.

05/12/2026

You are invited to our next webinar, "Where Do We Go From Here? Market Outlook and Portfolio Strategy," on May 13.

Our Senior Portfolio Manager, Wes Ashton, will provide insights on the following topics:
• What markets are pricing now (and what could surprise investors)
• How central bank timing can influence risk, liquidity, and leadership across asset classes
• Why distributions and book value adjustments can distort reported returns

Register here:
https://info.oakwaterwealth.com/harbourfront-live-update-may-13-2026

05/11/2026

The weather over the past couple of weeks has been spectacular and, in many ways, so has earnings season and the markets.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that markets were being pulled in two directions: one driven by headlines, the other by fundamentals. That tension has not disappeared, but the balance has shifted.

Today, fundamentals are back in control.

Earnings season has delivered a clear message. Corporate profits are not just holding up, they are accelerating. With the majority of companies now reported, growth is tracking at one of the strongest levels in years, well ahead of expectations. This is not a narrow story either. Strength is broad, with most sectors contributing in a meaningful way.

In other words, the market’s foundation is doing exactly what it should be doing.

Technology remains a key driver, particularly as companies continue to invest aggressively in artificial intelligence. But what is often missed is how far that spending reaches. This is no longer just a technology story. It is supporting industrial activity, materials demand, and parts of the consumer economy. The ripple effects are real, and they are showing up in earnings.

At the same time, the consumer continues to defy expectations. Higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tension were expected to slow spending more meaningfully. Instead, consumption has remained resilient, allowing businesses to maintain pricing power and protect margins.

This combination matters.

Markets have had to adjust to a world where rate cuts are less certain and geopolitical risks remain elevated. Under different earnings conditions, that would likely have led to a more meaningful pullback. Instead, equities have found support. Not because risks are absent, but because profits are rising fast enough to absorb them.

This is the part of the cycle where discipline matters most. When headlines are loud, it is easy to lose sight of what ultimately drives returns. But over time, markets tend to follow earnings, not emotions.

April was a strong reminder of that. Investors who stayed focused on businesses rather than noise were rewarded.

Looking ahead, the same framework applies. Headlines will continue to compete for attention. They always do. But as long as earnings remain on their current path, fundamentals should continue to carry more weight than fear.

That does not eliminate volatility. It does, however, provide something far more important: direction.

05/05/2026

Join our webinar on May 13: "Where Do We Go From Here? Market Outlook and Portfolio Strategy."

We will cover:
• From Resilience to Reality: What markets are pricing now
• Policy Crossroads: How central bank timing could redefine risk, liquidity, and asset leadership
• The Performance Illusion: How distributions and book value adjustments can distort reported returns

Secure your spot now:
https://info.oakwaterwealth.com/harbourfront-live-update-may-13-2026

05/04/2026

Last week’s rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada delivered no surprises on the surface, but the message beneath them is what matters for investors and borrowers.

Both central banks held their benchmark rates steady, yet the tone remains firmly cautious. Inflation has moderated, but progress has stalled in recent months, with some pressures beginning to re-emerge. Energy prices, influenced in part by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, remain a key variable and a reminder that inflation risks have not fully disappeared.

In the United States, Jerome Powell confirmed he will step down as Chair when his term ends on May 15, 2026, but will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors through January 2028. This is an uncommon step and, importantly, it helps reduce policy uncertainty during a leadership transition. Markets tend to react more to unexpected change than to the level of rates themselves, and Powell’s continued presence signals that the Federal Reserve’s disciplined, data dependent approach is unlikely to shift abruptly.

In Canada, the tone was incrementally more hawkish. While the Bank of Canada held rates, it made clear that further increases remain on the table if inflation proves sticky. This is a meaningful signal. The path forward is not simply about when cuts begin, but whether policy may need to tighten again before easing.

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward. The rate cycle is no longer about imminent cuts, but about persistence. Higher rates for longer remain the base case, creating a more selective environment where fundamentals, earnings resilience, and pricing power matter more than broad market momentum.

For borrowers, patience will be required. Relief on borrowing costs is likely to take longer than many had hoped, particularly for those facing renewals or carrying variable rate debt.

Overall, central banks are signalling discipline over urgency. Rate cuts will come, but only when inflation is convincingly back under control. Until then, staying focused on long term positioning rather than short term expectations remains the most effective approach.

04/27/2026

Markets continue to hold near recent highs, extending a steady recovery since the late March lows. The S&P 500 is now up more than 12% over that period, with all major North American indices firmly positive for the year. What stands out is that the recovery has not been narrowly driven. Participation has been relatively broad, with a range of sectors contributing rather than just a handful of large technology names.

In recent weeks, attention that was heavily focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East has started to shift back toward company fundamentals. While tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and periodic disruptions to shipping remain part of the backdrop, markets have increasingly treated these events as short-term shocks rather than lasting forces driving direction. That shift has allowed earnings season to take centre stage again.

Earnings results so far have generally come in better than expected in key areas of the market, particularly in businesses connected to artificial intelligence, data infrastructure, and higher-quality technology spending. In many cases, it has not just been the results themselves, but the outlooks that have mattered most. Companies that can point to clearer earnings visibility have continued to be rewarded.

At a broader level, earnings expectations across the market have continued to move higher. While valuations have eased slightly from last year’s peak, that improvement has mainly come from stronger earnings forecasts rather than lower stock prices. In simple terms, the market has not become cheaper because prices have fallen, but because expectations for future profits have risen.

That makes the mix of those earnings gains important. A meaningful share of the strength is still coming from technology and AI related businesses, while more cyclical parts of the market are showing a more uneven picture. That does not take away from the overall recovery, but it does mean that a smaller group of companies is doing more of the work in driving earnings growth.

This matters because earnings trends are not always steady. Periods of rapid investment, like we are seeing in artificial intelligence, can be powerful but tend to move in cycles. The same is true in areas like energy, where profits can shift quickly depending on global conditions.

For investors, the key takeaway is simple. The recovery in markets has been broad, but the earnings engine behind it is still evolving. As results continue to come in, the focus will increasingly be on how durable and widespread that strength really is.

04/20/2026

Over the past two weeks, markets have done what they often do: move ahead of the narrative.

Following renewed cease-fire discussions in the Middle East, sentiment shifted quickly. A choppy and uncertain stretch gave way to a broad-based rally, with major indices now back in positive territory for the year and within reach of recent highs.

That shift happened quickly.

It’s also what makes periods like the one reflected in March statements so challenging. They capture a moment when markets had pulled back from February levels and uncertainty was elevated. In real time, those environments raise understandable questions about whether to adjust course or how long a recovery might take.

In a short period of time, the recovery is already well underway.

We saw a version of this pattern last year, when shifts in U.S. tariff policy drove some of the strongest single-day moves on record. The catalyst may differ, but the speed and magnitude of the response remain familiar.

Sir John Templeton famously said that “the four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.” Periods of stress feel extended while we’re in them. The recovery, when it comes, is typically faster than expected. Markets don’t wait for clarity; they move while uncertainty is still high.

A matter of weeks can change the narrative. Our process is built for that reality.

We do not attempt to anticipate each development or react to short-term volatility. Instead, we assume these periods will occur and position portfolios to withstand them and participate in the recovery.

The recent rebound doesn’t remove risk. It reinforces a consistent reality: markets reward discipline more reliably than reaction.

Oakwater Wealth Counsel - Harbourfront Wealth Management

06/10/2026

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06/01/2026

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