Oakwater Wealth Counsel - Harbourfront Wealth Management

Oakwater Wealth Counsel - Harbourfront Wealth Management We're an independent advisory firm with access to a flexible and innovative investment model that takes into account unique alternative investments.

The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% this week. While the decision itself was not a surprise, w...
09/04/2026

The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% this week. While the decision itself was not a surprise, we think it highlights an interesting question for investors: where is the Canadian economy actually headed?

There are some encouraging signs.

Canadian GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized pace in the second quarter after contracting in the first. Consumer spending improved, real estate activity improved, exports and business investment picked up, and the labour market has shown some signs of stabilization.

But beneath that improvement, there are still reasons for caution.

Unemployment remains elevated at 6.4%, demand for labour is subdued, and the Bank continues to see excess capacity in the economy. At the same time, inflation is running around 3%. Much of the recent increase has been driven by gas prices, while inflation excluding gas was closer to 2.2% in July and core measures remained near the Bank’s 2% target.

That puts the Bank of Canada in an interesting position.

Normally, a weaker economy and excess capacity would create room for lower interest rates. But with inflation still above target, the Bank has less flexibility to simply respond to weaker growth with additional cuts.

Then there is trade.

The ongoing uncertainty with the United States adds another layer of complexity. Tariffs could weigh on growth, investment and business confidence, while also increasing costs for some companies and consumers. That creates a difficult combination for monetary policy: weaker growth alongside the potential for higher inflation.

For investors, I think the key takeaway is that the Canadian economy is not nearly as weak as some of the headlines might suggest, but neither is the recovery firmly established.

The strong second quarter is encouraging, but we should be careful about extrapolating one quarter of strong growth. Likewise, the recent increase in inflation deserves attention, but it is important to distinguish between temporary price pressures and a broader acceleration in underlying inflation.

This is why we continue to focus less on any single economic data point and more on the direction of the broader trend.

For now, the Canadian economy appears to be moving forward, but with more uncertainty around the path ahead. The Bank of Canada is watching that balance closely, and so are we.

There has been no shortage of issues at the top of investors’ minds lately.Trade policy, geopolitics, interest rates, in...
08/31/2026

There has been no shortage of issues at the top of investors’ minds lately.

Trade policy, geopolitics, interest rates, inflation and politics continue to dominate the headlines. It can sometimes feel as though the market is being asked to process a new source of uncertainty daily.

And yet, beneath all of that noise, companies continue to run their businesses.

This week's Nvidia earnings were another good example.

We won't spend much time on the numbers. The results were once again exceptionally strong, but we think the more interesting takeaway is what they tell us about the broader market.

We have written before about the Mega 7 companies and the significant influence they have had on markets in recent years. Nvidia is an important part of that story, but what stands out to us is that the strength we are seeing is not limited to one company or one sector.

There is real growth happening across the corporate landscape.

Companies may slow their investment when the political or economic environment becomes more uncertain. They may delay a project, reconsider an expansion or take a more cautious approach to spending. But what is interesting in the current environment is that businesses are continuing to invest, develop new products and look for ways to grow.

That is becoming increasingly apparent in this earnings season.

While there are certainly areas of weakness and individual companies facing challenges, the overall picture remains encouraging. Many businesses are reporting solid revenue growth, expanding earnings and continued investment despite an unusually complicated macroeconomic backdrop.

That distinction is important.

Markets can react very quickly to a headline. A new tariff announcement, an unexpected political development or a change in interest rate expectations can move prices in a matter of hours.

Corporate earnings work differently. They reflect what has actually happened inside a business: what customers bought, what companies invested, how much they earned and what management expects going forward.

Companies are still growing earnings, investing for the future and finding ways to adapt to a more uncertain environment. That doesn't mean every company is performing well, or that the challenges facing businesses have disappeared. But collectively, the earnings are telling us something important: corporate America remains in relatively good health.

There is still uncertainty. There will be more volatility. Some companies will struggle, while others will flourish, and some expectations will prove too optimistic.

But while the headlines continue to change from day to day, the underlying businesses are continuing to move forward.

The headlines tell us what the world is talking about. Earnings tell us what companies are actually doing.

Right now, what companies are doing is encouraging.

There are effectively two markets operating at the same time. The first is the market we see every day in the headlines....
08/17/2026

There are effectively two markets operating at the same time.

The first is the market we see every day in the headlines. It is driven by elections, geopolitical tensions, interest rates, inflation, trade policy and whatever story happens to dominate the news cycle that morning.

The second is quieter. It is driven by fundamentals: corporate earnings, cash flow, productivity, innovation and the ability of businesses to grow over time.

The challenge is that most investors spend far more time watching the first one.

There is a reason for that. Negative news attracts attention and triggers emotion. One study found that, on average, each additional negative word in a news headline increased the likelihood of someone clicking on the story.

I sometimes use a simple example to illustrate this. Hippos are responsible for more human deaths each year than sharks, yet how often do you see a headline about a hippo, unless it happens to be Christmas? Now imagine you're planning a beach vacation and, a few days before you leave, you see a story about a shark attack. You may find yourself thinking twice before jumping into the water. The headline has changed your perception of the risk, even though the underlying risk remains extraordinarily small. Sharks simply make for a much better story than hippos.

The same thing can happen in financial markets.

A market decline caused by a political headline or geopolitical event can dominate the conversation, even when the underlying businesses continue to perform well. Conversely, steady improvements in corporate earnings rarely make for exciting headlines.

That distinction is particularly important today.

Despite plenty of uncertainty in the headlines, the fundamental picture remains encouraging. Another strong US earnings season is underway, with the majority of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings above expectations. More importantly, analysts continue to expect earnings to grow in 2027 and 2028.

That matters because, over time, stock prices tend to follow the earnings and cash flows of the businesses they represent.

This doesn't mean the market cannot experience periods of volatility. It certainly can. Headlines will continue to move markets from one day to the next.

As portfolio managers, our job isn't to ignore the headlines. It's to understand them in the context of what is happening underneath the surface.

The headlines tell us what happened today. The fundamentals tell us where businesses may be going tomorrow.

Our focus remains on the second.

Markets are noisy right now. Rate decisions, trade negotiations, and fiscal policy shifts: it's a lot to sort through on...
08/11/2026

Markets are noisy right now. Rate decisions, trade negotiations, and fiscal policy shifts: it's a lot to sort through on your own. Join us on August 12 for a live session with Wes Ashton, where he'll cut through the noise and share his outlook on what matters most for your portfolio.

Save your spot:
https://info.oakwaterwealth.com/harbourfront-live-update-august-12-2026

A few weeks ago, we wrote about the recent wave of mega IPOs and why investors should be careful not to confuse exciteme...
08/10/2026

A few weeks ago, we wrote about the recent wave of mega IPOs and why investors should be careful not to confuse excitement with opportunity. The point was never that companies like SpaceX or OpenAI are not exceptional businesses. Rather, it was that by the time many of these companies reach public markets, expectations have often become just as extraordinary as the companies themselves.

SpaceX has wasted little time reinforcing that point.

Since its public debut, the question has shifted. Investors are no longer debating whether SpaceX is a great company. They are debating whether its valuation justifies the expectations already built into the stock. Since its IPO, shares have traded below their offering price, reinforcing the reality that even exceptional businesses can struggle to deliver strong stock performance when expectations are already extraordinarily high.

That is an important distinction.

Stocks do not move simply because a company reports good news. They move based on whether that news exceeds what investors were already expecting. The higher the expectations, the more difficult it becomes to surprise the market.

Interestingly, reports suggest OpenAI is considering delaying its own IPO until next year. Whether that decision reflects market conditions, valuation considerations, or simply timing, it highlights a broader shift in today's capital markets. Companies are remaining private longer, and when they finally enter public markets, they are often doing so with extraordinary expectations already attached.

That is why blockbuster IPOs deserve a healthy dose of perspective.

The hardest part of investing is not identifying extraordinary companies. It is determining whether their future success has already been reflected in today's price.

None of this changes my view from a few weeks ago. SpaceX may prove to be one of the defining companies of our generation, just as OpenAI may one day become. But even the greatest businesses must ultimately justify the price investors pay for them.

As portfolio managers, our responsibility is not to chase the most exciting stories. It is to remain disciplined when everyone else is getting caught up in them.

A lot has shifted in the first half of 2026: rate expectations, trade policy, and fiscal direction. On August 12, Wes As...
08/05/2026

A lot has shifted in the first half of 2026: rate expectations, trade policy, and fiscal direction. On August 12, Wes Ashton will walk through what's changed, what hasn't, and how we're positioning portfolios through the uncertainty. Free to attend, and worth your time if you want a grounded perspective on where things stand.

Register here: https://info.oakwaterwealth.com/harbourfront-live-update-august-12-2026

It was another eventful week for investors. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, corporate earnings contin...
08/04/2026

It was another eventful week for investors. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, corporate earnings continued to provide insight into the strength of businesses, and renewed tensions in the Middle East added another layer of uncertainty to global markets.

Yet despite the headlines, one theme continues to stand above the rest: artificial intelligence.

Over the past two years, AI has been one of the most powerful drivers of equity market returns. Investors have rewarded many of the companies building the chips, data centres, and software that support this technological transformation. These businesses have delivered exceptional results, but as expectations have risen, investors are beginning to ask a more important question.

Where will the long-term value from AI ultimately be created?

We believe the opportunity extends well beyond the companies directly building the technology.

Every transformational technology creates an initial wave of winners. Over time, however, the opportunity often broadens. The internet created enormous value for companies building the infrastructure, but many of its greatest beneficiaries were businesses that learned how to use the technology to improve productivity, strengthen customer relationships, and build better businesses.

We believe AI will follow a similar path.

Healthcare companies are using AI to accelerate drug discovery and improve diagnostics. Financial institutions are applying it to enhance fraud detection and decision-making. Industrial companies are using automation and advanced analytics to improve productivity.

The winners of AI may not just be the companies creating the technology, but the companies are using it better than their competitors.

That doesn't mean today's AI leaders cannot continue to succeed. Many remain exceptional businesses with significant competitive advantages. However, after a remarkable period of performance, some consolidation and increased volatility would be a natural part of the market cycle. A healthy market does not require the same companies to lead forever. In many cases, long-term market strength is supported when leadership broadens and more industries begin participating.

For investors, the challenge is separating innovation from investment opportunity. Transformative technologies create tremendous possibilities, but businesses still need to translate those opportunities into stronger earnings, improved productivity, and sustainable long-term value.

Our focus remains on looking beyond the headlines to understand how powerful trends are changing businesses and where long-term opportunities may emerge.

Happy BC Day! 🌲 We're fortunate to call British Columbia home. Whether you're hiking, enjoying the coastline, or spendin...
08/03/2026

Happy BC Day! 🌲 We're fortunate to call British Columbia home. Whether you're hiking, enjoying the coastline, or spending time with family, we hope you're making the most of the long weekend.

Wishing our clients, partners, and community a wonderful day.

One of the strengths of our practice is the close collaboration within our team. We regularly exchange ideas, challenge ...
07/27/2026

One of the strengths of our practice is the close collaboration within our team. We regularly exchange ideas, challenge one another's thinking, and discuss how changing market conditions may impact the families we advise. It makes us better investors and, ultimately, better advisors.

Several clients have asked whether Canadian banks and dividend-paying companies still deserve a meaningful place in today's portfolios. Ladan shares her perspective in this week's commentary.

Wes

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With Canadian equities near record highs and US markets capturing much of the attention, investors are asking whether Canadian dividend-paying companies still deserve a place in their portfolios.

It's a timely question.

The excitement surrounding artificial intelligence and large-cap US technology companies has understandably attracted significant investor interest. At the same time, many of Canada's best-known businesses, including our banks, insurers, railways, pipelines, and utilities, have quietly delivered strong returns of their own. Several are trading near all-time highs, leading some investors to wonder whether the opportunity has already passed.

Rather than focusing on whether Canadian companies will outperform their US counterparts over the next year, a more useful question is what role they play within a well-constructed portfolio.

Many of Canada's leading companies have characteristics that have stood the test of time. They operate in industries with high barriers to entry, generate consistent cash flow, maintain strong balance sheets, and have long histories of increasing dividends. Those growing dividends have historically provided investors with a meaningful portion of their long-term return while also helping cushion portfolios during periods of market volatility.

Many of these businesses are far more global than their Canadian headquarters suggest. Companies such as our major banks, railways, energy infrastructure firms, and asset managers generate revenue around the world, giving investors exposure to global economic growth while benefiting from the governance and stability associated with Canada's largest corporations.

The question doesn't need to be whether Canadian or US equities are the better investment. Each market offers distinct strengths and serves a different purpose within a diversified portfolio. US companies continue to lead in innovation and global growth, while many Canadian businesses have built durable competitive advantages, generated dependable cash flow, and rewarded shareholders through growing dividends. International investments also provide exposure to industries and economies neither Canada nor the US can offer.

The most effective portfolios aren't built by choosing a single winning market. Instead, they're built by recognizing the complementary role each plays in helping families achieve their long-term financial goals.

Ladan

Investors received some welcome news this week as US inflation showed signs of easing. After months of uncertainty, the ...
07/20/2026

Investors received some welcome news this week as US inflation showed signs of easing. After months of uncertainty, the latest data provided evidence that price pressures are continuing to moderate, giving markets some optimism that the Federal Reserve may have more flexibility around future interest rate decisions.

US consumer prices declined 0.4% in June, the largest monthly decline since 2020, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. A meaningful contributor to the improvement was lower energy prices, which provided some relief for consumers and businesses after a prolonged period of elevated costs.

However, investors should be careful not to assume the inflation battle is over.

Energy prices remain one of the most unpredictable components of inflation, and recent geopolitical developments have created renewed uncertainty in global oil markets. Oil prices have moved higher again in recent days, reminding investors that inflation trends can change quickly when supply concerns emerge. If energy prices continue to rise, some of the recent improvement in inflation data could prove temporary.

This is the challenge facing central banks.

During Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chair, the Fed emphasized patience, transparency, and a data-dependent approach. Rather than committing to a specific path for interest rates, Powell consistently highlighted the importance of balancing inflation trends, economic growth, and employment conditions. This approach helped investors understand that monetary policy would remain flexible as the economic environment evolved.

With new leadership now in place, investors will be watching closely to see how the central bank communicates future decisions and whether its approach to policy guidance changes. Ultimately, markets will continue to focus less on individual comments and more on the underlying economic data.

Canada faces a different set of challenges. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates steady as policymakers continue to balance improving inflation trends with slower economic growth and the impact of higher borrowing costs on households. While inflation has improved from its peak, the path forward remains uncertain, particularly with energy prices once again becoming a potential source of pressure.

For investors, the most important takeaway is that economic developments rarely exist in isolation. Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events are interconnected, and the impact of one factor often depends on how it influences the broader environment.

The most difficult part of investing is rarely identifying what has occurred. The harder question is understanding what it means.

Economic data is constantly evolving, and markets are continuously adjusting their expectations. The opportunity comes not from reacting the fastest, but from understanding which developments are truly changing the investment landscape and which are simply part of the normal market cycle.

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