10/04/2026
In its official 2024 and 2025 stability reports, the Bank of Canada calculated the "payment shock" for different borrower groups. They projected that fixed-rate borrowers with 5-year terms would see a median increase of roughly 15% to 25% in their monthly payments upon renewal.
15%: Represents borrowers who have seen significant income growth or have paid down a large chunk of their principal.
25%: Represents the median experience for a standard 5-year fixed-rate holder renewing in today’s environment.
This percentage translates to an extra $400 to $600 per month. Even though homeowners have been paying down their principal for five years, the jump in interest rates is large enough to outweigh those principal reductions, causing the monthly bill to rise.
If your mortgage renewal is coming up in the next six months, now is the time to start exploring your options. Don’t assume your current lender’s offer is the most competitive—shopping around could save you thousands over your next term.